3 ms·
Good points worth debating. 1. People do silly things because they have "reservation demand" and over time, speculatively, they figured out the most marketable
by oleganza 13y ago
Good points worth debating.
1. People do silly things because they have "reservation demand" and over time, speculatively, they figured out the most marketable commodity to hold for later spending (gold, silver, bitcoin etc.) Since it's purely speculative, not based on immediate consumption, and always kept in someone's cash balances, it may look silly to martians. But it's useful for people nonetheless. See: http://blog.oleganza.com/post/43378777734/on-circulation-of-money http://blog.oleganza.com/post/43378777734/on-circulation-of-...
2. See above. Yes, money is a speculative asset because it's what it is by definition. It's used only to satisfy "reservation demand", or need to hold something ultra-marketable for spending anytime because of uncertainty.
3. It's only fear for those who hedge against USD. There are many ways to do that, not only by buying gold or bitcoins. When you decide to invest particularly in Bitcoin, it's this particular speculation about future acceptance, not fear of USD going down.
4. Same argument that disregards reservation demand. Also: it does not make sense when all gold is a single cube owned by one man. Money is useful when there are many actors holding some portions of it and willing to hold even more. Then you have liquidity. If only you have something unique, it does not become money. Even if it's all gold in the world.
5. Bitcoin depends on p2p network the same way bitcoin and gold depend on the market to value them. Miners are highly motivated to play nice with each other to keep BTC value high. They are also motivated to censor bad spammy actors who try to destroy network or censor transactions. Like, every gold owner is motivated in having good ways to transfer, store and validate gold to keep their value and liquidity in place. There's no dependence on "good will", it's all driven by individual greed and speculation, like with gold.
6. This argument applies to all money, any money. Any good money would have to grow in price as demand for it grows (so it looks like a pyramid). Gold was growing in value too as it was more and more liquid and widely accepted. The quick growth does not tell us if it's tulip mania or real fantastic tool. In both cases the price would have to grow like crazy. You have to look into fundamentals - real reasons why people are making a bet that it will become a huge thing.
7. Another argument which misses reservation demand. Holding cash is useful to owner of that cash as it provides freedom to make choices any time. Holding a stable company allows keeping that cash balance above zero. People work for money directly or indirectly just for that - to have economic freedom to make decisions when they please, depending on the situation.
- headgasket 13y agoIMHO the right asset to hold for reservation demand is either one you can directly pay you taxes with: the sovereign entity's currency in which you operate (or exist in case of a moral entity) or a marketable security with moat-protected earning power. It has worked wonderfully for Mr Buffet. I have done quite OK with the same principle; YMMV. That being said, the idea of bitcoin p2p proof network and attached mining reward is fascinating. I dont think "reserve demand" is the killer app for it, something yet to come will be IMHO. My current hand does not warrant investing my most precious asset of all, time, in this. But a killer app could at any moment change that. I see you are looking at iOS applications. That may very well be where it resides. Cheers and good luck,