4 ms·
Warren Buffett on Gold: 1. “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to st
by headgasket 13y ago
Warren Buffett on Gold:
1. “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”
1.1 How would Martians looking at ProofOfWork brute force SHA256 hashing and cryptographic scarcity feel any different?
2. “The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time.”
2.1. Gold is inherently speculative. So is bitcoins, as a currency; with the caveat that it only exists if the p2p network still exists, if not there is absolutely no actual use for btc.
3. “Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything."
3.1 IMHO bitcoins as a currency could not have emerged in any other time than in a time where the governments of the world are on a serious QE binge in a desperate bid to prevent a double dip and an extremely damageable deflation era, like the 33-39 one, that can only be resolved by the reset a global conflict brings. If we can snap out(inflate out) of the current slump, bitcoins as a currency will not hold up, nor will gold. Gold is already on the decline...
4. “I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (XOM) and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils.”
4.1 This is a key point for all the speculators out there. You will get burned. Buy solid earnings of management-owned moat-protected business. Invest in startups. Invest in brains. Dont get burned by this artificial bubble and the prospect of easy money. There is no such thing. Talk to all the house flippers. They were holding concrete: hard assets; protected solid future earnings is where value is. Growth in in brains.
5. “The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.”
5.1 Gold is safer than bitcoins in the fact that it does not depend on an honest p2p network to exist individually.
6. “What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As 'bandwagon' investors join any party, they create their own truth — for a while."
6.1 This is the same for bitcoins, if when the expansion of demand comes to an end the whiplash is going to hurt. The bc protocol is a very interesting concept that IMHO will certainly find a use, and as such the POW will have a value; but it will eventually be indexed to the actual energy costs and expected future earnings.
7. “I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola (KO) will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo (WFC) will be making a lot of money and there will be a lot — and it’s a lot — it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that."
7.1 The goose is running miners. That opportunity is long gone for btc. If you are interested and fired up about bitcoin, I would suggest investing in a bitcoin startup. That's your best bet; investing in brains. Not things. Esp. not virtual things.
Cheers and good luck!
- oleganza 13y agoGood points worth debating. 1. People do silly things because they have "reservation demand" and over time, speculatively, they figured out the most marketable commodity to hold for later spending (gold, silver, bitcoin etc.) Since it's purely speculative, not based on immediate consumption, and always kept in someone's cash balances, it may look silly to martians. But it's useful for people nonetheless. See: http://blog.oleganza.com/post/43378777734/on-circulation-of-money http://blog.oleganza.com/post/43378777734/on-circulation-of-... 2. See above. Yes, money is a speculative asset because it's what it is by definition. It's used only to satisfy "reservation demand", or need to hold something ultra-marketable for spending anytime because of uncertainty. 3. It's only fear for those who hedge against USD. There are many ways to do that, not only by buying gold or bitcoins. When you decide to invest particularly in Bitcoin, it's this particular speculation about future acceptance, not fear of USD going down. 4. Same argument that disregards reservation demand. Also: it does not make sense when all gold is a single cube owned by one man. Money is useful when there are many actors holding some portions of it and willing to hold even more. Then you have liquidity. If only you have something unique, it does not become money. Even if it's all gold in the world. 5. Bitcoin depends on p2p network the same way bitcoin and gold depend on the market to value them. Miners are highly motivated to play nice with each other to keep BTC value high. They are also motivated to censor bad spammy actors who try to destroy network or censor transactions. Like, every gold owner is motivated in having good ways to transfer, store and validate gold to keep their value and liquidity in place. There's no dependence on "good will", it's all driven by individual greed and speculation, like with gold. 6. This argument applies to all money, any money. Any good money would have to grow in price as demand for it grows (so it looks like a pyramid). Gold was growing in value too as it was more and more liquid and widely accepted. The quick growth does not tell us if it's tulip mania or real fantastic tool. In both cases the price would have to grow like crazy. You have to look into fundamentals - real reasons why people are making a bet that it will become a huge thing. 7. Another argument which misses reservation demand. Holding cash is useful to owner of that cash as it provides freedom to make choices any time. Holding a stable company allows keeping that cash balance above zero. People work for money directly or indirectly just for that - to have economic freedom to make decisions when they please, depending on the situation.
- 13y ago