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The market is really killing them for their current earnings report, and for the statistically insignificant fires. The market doesn't appear to be correct. Tes

The market is really killing them for their current earnings report, and for the statistically insignificant fires. The market doesn't appear to be correct. Tesla has a long way to go, but they seem to be doing it very right.

lallysingh 13y ago
So they're underpriced!
chollida1 13y ago
> he market is really killing them for their current earnings report, and for the statistically insignificant fires. To be honest I think we are actually seeing more capital gain realization( selling for a profit) than the other two items you mention. You have to remember that the stock has had a huge run up from $20 in Feb to a peakof $180. Alot of people have made some large non realized gains. Selling at a time like this is to be expected. Especially near year end for tax purposes.
kmfrk 13y ago
Musk is not the best person to listen to on the statistical significance of fires: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6768021 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6768021.
mcv 13y ago
Sounds like time to buy.
alan_cx 13y ago
I suppose one could point out that terrorism is also statistically insignificant, but fear of it very much is significant. So, I can well imagine that the fear of being in side a burning new fangled electric car, which has the batteries making up the entire area of the floor and are the scary chemical burny things, probably makes people think twice. Especially when for what ever reason they is a safer alternative. Now, given that marketing is usually about manipulating emotional response in a positive way for a product, we can see that emotional response is a real and serious issue. Simply quoting statistics simply fails because statistics have little to do with emotional response. There for it is missing the point hugely to bang on about such events being statically insignificant. Such events are negative PR and marketing and have a huge negative emotional response. Or, to ram the point home in a hard, emotional way... Imagine trying to tell a parent whose child burned to death in a burning Tesla that its all very sad, but comfort yourselves in the sure knowledge that their child's cindered corpse is statistically insignificant. I'll park out side for you, and keep the engine running, and hope the Mum is a poor shot.....
- alex_c 13y ago
  You seem to have a bone to pick with Tesla - this is not the first emotionally charged, negative comment I've read from you in a Tesla discussion. Is there a reason? The part that makes me wonder is your example of having to tell a parent their child burned to death in a Tesla. Who is this example aimed at? It's one thing to argue that safety perceptions can harm sales, it's another to argue... I'm not sure what that example is actually arguing, other than FUD.
- njharman 13y ago
  > I suppose one could point out that terrorism is also statistically insignificant, but fear of it very much is significant. Indeed, both reactions are irrational. And both have wasted opportunity and other costs. Society/world would be better off if people paid attention to actual risks and opportunities. Thinking more about electric cars in general not specifically Tesla. Although, they seem to be crest of wave so are decent proxy. Whether they're riding it or created it is debatable.
Symmetry 13y ago
Eh, I bought TSLA back at $32 a share a year ago thinking that it was undervalued and that it would end up as a serious carmaker in the future. I was expecting the price to go up to $60 or so. A valuation of $200, which it was at recently, means that you expect it to become the largest carmaker in the world. I don't think it's unreasonable for the market to think that Tesla will end up Honda or BMW sized instead of Toyota or GM sized. Becoming the next BMW totally counts as a success!
kbenson 13y ago
The market is responding to the market. Additional negative news for Tesla of just about any type will affect investor confidence even more, and if as an investor you would prefer to invest in something less volatile, it makes sense to pull out. The market doesn't appear to be correct The problem is that it's very, very hard to know why large disparate groups of people are doing what they are doing, even when they tell you (because people don't know many of the real reasons). The market may be correcting perfectly fine, but your assumptions about the relevant variables are incorrect.

lallysingh 13y ago

So they're underpriced!

chollida1 13y ago

> he market is really killing them for their current earnings report, and for the statistically insignificant fires. To be honest I think we are actually seeing more capital gain realization( selling for a profit) than the other two items you mention. You have to remember that the stock has had a huge run up from $20 in Feb to a peakof $180. Alot of people have made some large non realized gains. Selling at a time like this is to be expected. Especially near year end for tax purposes.

kmfrk 13y ago

Musk is not the best person to listen to on the statistical significance of fires: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6768021 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6768021.

mcv 13y ago

Sounds like time to buy.

alan_cx 13y ago

I suppose one could point out that terrorism is also statistically insignificant, but fear of it very much is significant. So, I can well imagine that the fear of being in side a burning new fangled electric car, which has the batteries making up the entire area of the floor and are the scary chemical burny things, probably makes people think twice. Especially when for what ever reason they is a safer alternative. Now, given that marketing is usually about manipulating emotional response in a positive way for a product, we can see that emotional response is a real and serious issue. Simply quoting statistics simply fails because statistics have little to do with emotional response. There for it is missing the point hugely to bang on about such events being statically insignificant. Such events are negative PR and marketing and have a huge negative emotional response. Or, to ram the point home in a hard, emotional way... Imagine trying to tell a parent whose child burned to death in a burning Tesla that its all very sad, but comfort yourselves in the sure knowledge that their child's cindered corpse is statistically insignificant. I'll park out side for you, and keep the engine running, and hope the Mum is a poor shot.....

alex_c 13y ago
You seem to have a bone to pick with Tesla - this is not the first emotionally charged, negative comment I've read from you in a Tesla discussion. Is there a reason? The part that makes me wonder is your example of having to tell a parent their child burned to death in a Tesla. Who is this example aimed at? It's one thing to argue that safety perceptions can harm sales, it's another to argue... I'm not sure what that example is actually arguing, other than FUD.
njharman 13y ago
> I suppose one could point out that terrorism is also statistically insignificant, but fear of it very much is significant. Indeed, both reactions are irrational. And both have wasted opportunity and other costs. Society/world would be better off if people paid attention to actual risks and opportunities. Thinking more about electric cars in general not specifically Tesla. Although, they seem to be crest of wave so are decent proxy. Whether they're riding it or created it is debatable.

Symmetry 13y ago

Eh, I bought TSLA back at $32 a share a year ago thinking that it was undervalued and that it would end up as a serious carmaker in the future. I was expecting the price to go up to $60 or so. A valuation of $200, which it was at recently, means that you expect it to become the largest carmaker in the world. I don't think it's unreasonable for the market to think that Tesla will end up Honda or BMW sized instead of Toyota or GM sized. Becoming the next BMW totally counts as a success!

kbenson 13y ago

The market is responding to the market. Additional negative news for Tesla of just about any type will affect investor confidence even more, and if as an investor you would prefer to invest in something less volatile, it makes sense to pull out. The market doesn't appear to be correct The problem is that it's very, very hard to know why large disparate groups of people are doing what they are doing, even when they tell you (because people don't know many of the real reasons). The market may be correcting perfectly fine, but your assumptions about the relevant variables are incorrect.