5 ms·

This doesn't make sense to me. Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. Right now it's a speculative investment. Either it will succeed an

by netcan 13y ago

This doesn't make sense to me. Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. Right now it's a speculative investment. Either it will succeed and demand for bitcoin will go even higher or it will fail and it will be worth nothing. It's like investing in some risky VC fund. It makes sense for people to have wildly different ideas about potential and risk, but it makes no sense to expect it to just stay where it is.

IgorPartola 13y ago
I don't know. I've held it since I bought it at $13/BTC. Seems like so far I am doing OK.
- netcan 13y ago
  You are doing more than OK ;) Risky investment doesn't mean bad investment. Startup equity can be a good investment too. I'm just saying bitcoin is not a safe value store, which is what nl was hypothesizing in his comment.
obtino 13y ago
> Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. It's a deflationary currency. Sure there may be rises and falls, but in the long term, the trend will only be in one direction.
- Retric 13y ago
  Only if something else does not supplant it. Right now it's like investing in 1980's baseball cards, sure there not making more but nothing guarantees anyone want's them in 10 years.
- gutnor 13y ago
  That's a problem for a currency, no ? You are in effect rewarded for no spending it, or in other word not using it as a currency. Seems like Bitcoin is instead becoming a new class of asset rather than a currency.
  - SkyMarshal 13y ago
    It was in the past, in less dynamic, less connected, less 'always on' economies. We've never seen what a deflationary currency will do in a modern, wired, 'speed-of-light/electricity' economy though. It could lead to increased capital formation (savings) and less frivolous spending, eg spending only on necessities and appreciating assets, and less on throwaway, planned obsolete junk, while still maintaining enough velocity not to stall the economy. Leaner but still viable. Of course, getting from here to there will not be painless. Who knows, jury's still out on it imho, will have to watch and see. Front-row seats to one of the greatest economic experiments of history, for better or worse.
  - wyager 13y ago
    It simply changes how much people are willing to spend. The question becomes "Does buying this thing now have more utility to me than having several times this thing's value in a few years?" The answer is sometimes "yes".
ihsw 13y ago
It makes perfect sense -- but only if you look at it objectively. The speculators will trade on the hourly waxing and waning exchange rates, but the savers will look at 52-week moving averages. If you judge BTC simply by the latter, and have the patience for re-evaluating your BTC finances annually or bi-annually, then you'd be in a pretty good spot. Sure it fluctuates an uncomfortable amount on a regular basis, but it's a fairly consistent trend otherwise.
- novalis78 13y ago
  I agree. I found myself going through different stages of thinking about bitcoin. I mined early in 2011 and almost sold all of my bitcoin thinking that it would crash any day. Having witnessed three supernova price movements and bitcoin coming quickly back each time settling on a higher value, it does not look like a "penny stock" anymore that would be dead after just one such run. It might be the single simple fact that BTC generation is predictable that creates a pull for people who are willing to bet part of their savings on it. If enough do that, bitcoin becomes a value storage system - self fulfilling prophecy. If that's the case we are just at the beginning.
- UweSchmidt 13y ago
  Not at all, if "...or it will fail and it will be worth nothing" is a possible scenario. If you buy every week, any catastrophic event that makes bitcoin worthless would still wipe out your retirement savings before your bi-annual reevaluation is due.
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
grinnbearit 13y ago
Its an awesome store of value. Bitcoin, like gold, is it's own counterparty. If you own bitcoin, you own it irrevocably unless you choose to give it to someone else. Combine that with the fact that it is globally accessible, globally transferrable, and incredibly low cost to keep secure and you've got something which disrupts 5000 years of financial history.
- bitcoin-truth 13y ago
  You own it only while you remember the password. Gold won't just disappear one day though your memory might.
  - grinnbearit 13y ago
    unless you forget where you buried it
dllthomas 13y ago
Moving everything into bitcoin doesn't make a lot of sense. Diversifying into bitcoin is more likely to - I don't see tremendous reason Chinese housing prices and Chinese bank solvency would be positively correlated to bitcoin price, though I could very well be missing something (simple or complex).

by netcan 13y ago

IgorPartola 13y ago

I don't know. I've held it since I bought it at $13/BTC. Seems like so far I am doing OK.

netcan 13y ago
You are doing more than OK ;) Risky investment doesn't mean bad investment. Startup equity can be a good investment too. I'm just saying bitcoin is not a safe value store, which is what nl was hypothesizing in his comment.

obtino 13y ago

> Bitcoin right now is an incredibly bad long term value store. It's a deflationary currency. Sure there may be rises and falls, but in the long term, the trend will only be in one direction.

Retric 13y ago
Only if something else does not supplant it. Right now it's like investing in 1980's baseball cards, sure there not making more but nothing guarantees anyone want's them in 10 years.
gutnor 13y ago
That's a problem for a currency, no ? You are in effect rewarded for no spending it, or in other word not using it as a currency. Seems like Bitcoin is instead becoming a new class of asset rather than a currency.
- SkyMarshal 13y ago
  It was in the past, in less dynamic, less connected, less 'always on' economies. We've never seen what a deflationary currency will do in a modern, wired, 'speed-of-light/electricity' economy though. It could lead to increased capital formation (savings) and less frivolous spending, eg spending only on necessities and appreciating assets, and less on throwaway, planned obsolete junk, while still maintaining enough velocity not to stall the economy. Leaner but still viable. Of course, getting from here to there will not be painless. Who knows, jury's still out on it imho, will have to watch and see. Front-row seats to one of the greatest economic experiments of history, for better or worse.
- wyager 13y ago
  It simply changes how much people are willing to spend. The question becomes "Does buying this thing now have more utility to me than having several times this thing's value in a few years?" The answer is sometimes "yes".

ihsw 13y ago

It makes perfect sense -- but only if you look at it objectively. The speculators will trade on the hourly waxing and waning exchange rates, but the savers will look at 52-week moving averages. If you judge BTC simply by the latter, and have the patience for re-evaluating your BTC finances annually or bi-annually, then you'd be in a pretty good spot. Sure it fluctuates an uncomfortable amount on a regular basis, but it's a fairly consistent trend otherwise.

novalis78 13y ago
I agree. I found myself going through different stages of thinking about bitcoin. I mined early in 2011 and almost sold all of my bitcoin thinking that it would crash any day. Having witnessed three supernova price movements and bitcoin coming quickly back each time settling on a higher value, it does not look like a "penny stock" anymore that would be dead after just one such run. It might be the single simple fact that BTC generation is predictable that creates a pull for people who are willing to bet part of their savings on it. If enough do that, bitcoin becomes a value storage system - self fulfilling prophecy. If that's the case we are just at the beginning.
UweSchmidt 13y ago
Not at all, if "...or it will fail and it will be worth nothing" is a possible scenario. If you buy every week, any catastrophic event that makes bitcoin worthless would still wipe out your retirement savings before your bi-annual reevaluation is due.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]

grinnbearit 13y ago

Its an awesome store of value. Bitcoin, like gold, is it's own counterparty. If you own bitcoin, you own it irrevocably unless you choose to give it to someone else. Combine that with the fact that it is globally accessible, globally transferrable, and incredibly low cost to keep secure and you've got something which disrupts 5000 years of financial history.

bitcoin-truth 13y ago
You own it only while you remember the password. Gold won't just disappear one day though your memory might.
- grinnbearit 13y ago
  unless you forget where you buried it

dllthomas 13y ago

Moving everything into bitcoin doesn't make a lot of sense. Diversifying into bitcoin is more likely to - I don't see tremendous reason Chinese housing prices and Chinese bank solvency would be positively correlated to bitcoin price, though I could very well be missing something (simple or complex).