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>Well this is an exceptionally cute idea, but there is absolutely no way that anyone is going to have any faith in this currency. Hah!

by lcasela 13y ago

marvin 13y ago
People should be required to place a monetary bet whenever they make a bold claim in public. I think we would see less comments like this one.
- joosters 13y ago
  For all we know, the comment might be proven right next week/month/year. It's just right now that it's plainly wrong. How much is your monetary bet then?
  - smtddr 13y ago
    Which brings us to an interesting question... how long does something have to go before we consider it a success even if it fails later? When something comes along to defeat Facebook, are we going to call Facebook a failure? Was Myspace a failure?[1] The fact that Bitcoin has ran this long, given some huge payouts and legit(albeit small) businesses accept it as payment, I'm almost ready to call bitcoin a success even if it fails 6 months from now. 1. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2006/aug/13/observerreview.onlinesupplement http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2006/aug/13/observerre... Myspace listed among the top 15 most influential sites.
    - nutate 13y ago
      Telegraph... colossal fail. But note that the first wire transfers in 1871 were done on western union's telegraph system. Yours is an interesting question. The tulip mania bubble people like to reference was less than a year long, so BTC is already beating that.
    - joosters 13y ago
      And if/when it fails, Bitcoin can reasonably claim to have shown that distributed computer-based currencies are feasible and people will use them. Even if a successor comes along and solves Bitcoin's problems, you could justifiably say that it only succeeded because of Bitcoin.
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
  - sejje 13y ago
    The claim, as claimed, is wrong. Plenty of people have faith in it.
- epaga 13y ago
  In a sense, knowing about Bitcoin in those early days and not buying any at all was a monetary bet. A very costly one.
- user24 13y ago
  That's exactly what I did earlier today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6754061 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6754061 I actually expect I'd have lost the bet if they'd taken it, due to my way too generous terms but that's not the point. The point was to try to illustrate that "oh it'll crash" is a nonsense prediction. Be concrete, and put your money where your mouth is, or realise that you haven't actually thought it through.
- mike_esspe 13y ago
  It's an idea for a startup.
  - smtddr 13y ago
    Then the meta-bets, will said start-up fail? If you bet "yes" and you're right, there won't be anyone around to facilitate the payout ;)
  - BlackDeath3 13y ago
    Isn't everything?
- jlgreco 13y ago
  You know, of all the problems that this community has, I don't think "the echo chamber is far too dampened" is one of them.
- prawn 13y ago
  They did presumably bet by not buying. At the time, even just a small purchase of Bitcoin then would be worth a million dollars today.
- notahacker 13y ago
  I think we would see fewer comments that technologies like Bitcoin (or cold fusion, or for that matter Google) would be successful if monetary bets depended on them. Or a lot more broke futurologists :)
- Marazan 13y ago
  The commentator did place a monetary bet, by not buying or mining BitCoins.
mkr-hn 13y ago
There's faith among fans of the currency. Others are interested, but that's a long way from faith.
- onebaddude 13y ago
  Exactly. I was a bit taken aback that the tone of this submission was, "See! Bitcoing worked!" Uh, no one outside of a few small circles has any idea what it is. And any currency as volatile as Bitcoin is broken.
  - jafaku 13y ago
    That's like saying populations or startup stocks are broken. Do you think Facebook had a very smooth, progressive, and always upward growth? The stabilization comes at the end of the S curve. And Bitcoin isn't just a currency, it's a lot of things. One of them is a store of wealth, like gold, and it's doing wonders in that role.
    - digitailor 13y ago
      Ahh, someone on HN who understands stores of exchange-value. Refreshing. Just one of the many, many ways bitcoin is better than gold as a store of exchange-value: embedded security. No armored trucks, no vaults. And look at China. BTC's recent rise is partially attributable to the fact it's a so-far-legal method of moving ¥ out of the country. And their government looks to be in support. The reason it's illegal to exchange yuan for foreign currency is so it doesn't leave the system and lose value. With BTC, the yuan is received by the buyer as something of value, instead of something to be "disposed of," thereby not diluting its value. Ie. BTC can move currencies without making them lose exchange-value. That's not a small deal.
      - ashray 13y ago
        What do you mean doesn't leave the system ? If I were to exchange yuan for USD at a currency exchange/bank, they would keep the yuan and give me USD. The yuan wouldn't get destroyed and lose value or leave the system. It would be either a) handed back to another guy who wants to buy yuans for USD or b) used for the profit/operations of the currency exchange. BTC may for the time being move currencies without any perceptible loss in exchange value but the exchange value of BTC will go up per yuan with greater demand. The yuan will devalue against BTC but maybe this isn't a big problem because BTC isn't a major world currency .. yet ?

>Well this is an exceptionally cute idea, but there is absolutely no way that anyone is going to have any faith in this currency. Hah!

by lcasela 13y ago

>Well this is an exceptionally cute idea, but there is absolutely no way that anyone is going to have any faith in this currency. Hah!

marvin 13y ago

People should be required to place a monetary bet whenever they make a bold claim in public. I think we would see less comments like this one.

joosters 13y ago
For all we know, the comment might be proven right next week/month/year. It's just right now that it's plainly wrong. How much is your monetary bet then?
- smtddr 13y ago
  Which brings us to an interesting question... how long does something have to go before we consider it a success even if it fails later? When something comes along to defeat Facebook, are we going to call Facebook a failure? Was Myspace a failure?[1] The fact that Bitcoin has ran this long, given some huge payouts and legit(albeit small) businesses accept it as payment, I'm almost ready to call bitcoin a success even if it fails 6 months from now. 1. http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2006/aug/13/observerreview.onlinesupplement http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2006/aug/13/observerre... Myspace listed among the top 15 most influential sites.
  - nutate 13y ago
    Telegraph... colossal fail. But note that the first wire transfers in 1871 were done on western union's telegraph system. Yours is an interesting question. The tulip mania bubble people like to reference was less than a year long, so BTC is already beating that.
  - joosters 13y ago
    And if/when it fails, Bitcoin can reasonably claim to have shown that distributed computer-based currencies are feasible and people will use them. Even if a successor comes along and solves Bitcoin's problems, you could justifiably say that it only succeeded because of Bitcoin.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- sejje 13y ago
  The claim, as claimed, is wrong. Plenty of people have faith in it.
epaga 13y ago
In a sense, knowing about Bitcoin in those early days and not buying any at all was a monetary bet. A very costly one.
user24 13y ago
That's exactly what I did earlier today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6754061 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6754061 I actually expect I'd have lost the bet if they'd taken it, due to my way too generous terms but that's not the point. The point was to try to illustrate that "oh it'll crash" is a nonsense prediction. Be concrete, and put your money where your mouth is, or realise that you haven't actually thought it through.
mike_esspe 13y ago
It's an idea for a startup.
- smtddr 13y ago
  Then the meta-bets, will said start-up fail? If you bet "yes" and you're right, there won't be anyone around to facilitate the payout ;)
- BlackDeath3 13y ago
  Isn't everything?
jlgreco 13y ago
You know, of all the problems that this community has, I don't think "the echo chamber is far too dampened" is one of them.
prawn 13y ago
They did presumably bet by not buying. At the time, even just a small purchase of Bitcoin then would be worth a million dollars today.
notahacker 13y ago
I think we would see fewer comments that technologies like Bitcoin (or cold fusion, or for that matter Google) would be successful if monetary bets depended on them. Or a lot more broke futurologists :)
Marazan 13y ago
The commentator did place a monetary bet, by not buying or mining BitCoins.

mkr-hn 13y ago

There's faith among fans of the currency. Others are interested, but that's a long way from faith.

onebaddude 13y ago
Exactly. I was a bit taken aback that the tone of this submission was, "See! Bitcoing worked!" Uh, no one outside of a few small circles has any idea what it is. And any currency as volatile as Bitcoin is broken.
- jafaku 13y ago
  That's like saying populations or startup stocks are broken. Do you think Facebook had a very smooth, progressive, and always upward growth? The stabilization comes at the end of the S curve. And Bitcoin isn't just a currency, it's a lot of things. One of them is a store of wealth, like gold, and it's doing wonders in that role.
  - digitailor 13y ago
    Ahh, someone on HN who understands stores of exchange-value. Refreshing. Just one of the many, many ways bitcoin is better than gold as a store of exchange-value: embedded security. No armored trucks, no vaults. And look at China. BTC's recent rise is partially attributable to the fact it's a so-far-legal method of moving ¥ out of the country. And their government looks to be in support. The reason it's illegal to exchange yuan for foreign currency is so it doesn't leave the system and lose value. With BTC, the yuan is received by the buyer as something of value, instead of something to be "disposed of," thereby not diluting its value. Ie. BTC can move currencies without making them lose exchange-value. That's not a small deal.
    - ashray 13y ago
      What do you mean doesn't leave the system ? If I were to exchange yuan for USD at a currency exchange/bank, they would keep the yuan and give me USD. The yuan wouldn't get destroyed and lose value or leave the system. It would be either a) handed back to another guy who wants to buy yuans for USD or b) used for the profit/operations of the currency exchange. BTC may for the time being move currencies without any perceptible loss in exchange value but the exchange value of BTC will go up per yuan with greater demand. The yuan will devalue against BTC but maybe this isn't a big problem because BTC isn't a major world currency .. yet ?