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The buyers are mostly China. 1 bitcoin is currently trading at $770 (¥4700) on https://btcchina.com https://btcchina.com PS: you already made your investment b

by mrb 13y ago

The buyers are mostly China. 1 bitcoin is currently trading at $770 (¥4700) on https://btcchina.com https://btcchina.com PS: you already made your investment back. Keep 0.5 BTC for the long term. Those who sold at the first bubble at $30 regret it. Those who sold at the second bubble at $270 regret it too. Those who sell during this third bubble at ~$700 will regret it too.

unclebucknasty 13y ago
>Those who sold at the first bubble at $30 regret it. Those who sold at the second bubble at $270 regret it too. Those who sell during this third bubble at ~$700 will regret it too. Is that to say that its price is infinite? I mean, at some point, someone will not regret it right? BTW, I am one who regrets selling at $297 just last week (even though I saw a 3x return), so I don't quibble with that. And, had I held on to it, I likely wouldn't sell now, given its trajectory. My idea was to take profits, let it plummet (as it has before), then get back in. Problem was, it just kept running after I sold it! So, the challenge is we just don't know where it's going. To say someone who sells now will regret it is dicey at best. As much as I think I agree with you, it's anybody's guess.
- Jtsummers 13y ago
  So my view may not be the consensus, but it is based on one of the major criticisms of BTC. It's a deflationary currency, and it (presently) has a strict upperbound on the number of available coins. As evidenced in this thread, there are also many "missing" bitcoins (lost wallets), which further increase the scarcity of whole bitcoins. Assuming BTC gains traction. As it does, the limited resource will be spread over a larger and larger group of people. Each person will have a smaller amount than what would have been possible were it still limited to just thousands of people in the economy. If only 21 million people participate in the economy, 1 BTC would be the average per participant, 10x increase and 0.1 BTC would be the average. The median will be much lower as bitcoin itself does nothing to address wealth distribution issues, so if you retained 1 BTC from the early days, only considering the number of participants, its value is directly proportional to the number of participants (individuals, businesses and states). TL;DR - 1BTC is not quite infinite, but assuming the bitcoin economy becomes established and grows to a reasonable size, 1BTC today will be a small fortune in just a few more years (possibly sooner, but that'd be due to hype, IMO, rather than real value as a currency).
- mrb 13y ago
  Of course everybody has a different opinion. Bitcoin might be displaced by another cryptocurrency. There are many risks threatening Bitcoin. Etc. But with all these disclaimers in mind, I would say I estimate the worth of Bitcoin to be roughly the size of the remittance market, or the gold market, and possibly bigger. So I would say at the very least $100 to $1,000 billion. Divide by the maximum theoretical limit of 21 million bitcoins. That gives a worth of at the very least $5,000 to $50,000 to each bitcoin.
  - unclebucknasty 13y ago
    Interesting approach, and not unreasonable, I'd guess. Current demand (presumably resulting from its recent traction in China) is insane. Price is marching straight up and to the right even as I type this. So, looks like the demand from new entrants is establishing at least a new range. Barring some horrible news, it's becoming difficult to see the sharp drop we've seen before. But, I guess that depends on how you look at it: The new entrants are either feeding the bubble or they're actually transferring wealth into BTC for the longer term. This article suggests the latter: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6756614 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6756614 EDIT: In addition, there seems to be a momentum building around BTC with Senate hearings today, more recent VC activity, and more media coverage, etc. I'm wondering if we're seeing a threshold-crossing here, and we'll look back to see this as the moment when BTC's future as a real alternative currency was sealed.
  - vinchuco 13y ago
    >bitcoin discplaced by another cryptocurrency Like what? Will the other currencies ever catch up with BTC? What's the probability of this happening? Wouldn't BTC just become the standard, given it's acceptance?
thenmar 13y ago
Bitcoin will rise in value forever: proof by induction

by mrb 13y ago

unclebucknasty 13y ago

>Those who sold at the first bubble at $30 regret it. Those who sold at the second bubble at $270 regret it too. Those who sell during this third bubble at ~$700 will regret it too. Is that to say that its price is infinite? I mean, at some point, someone will not regret it right? BTW, I am one who regrets selling at $297 just last week (even though I saw a 3x return), so I don't quibble with that. And, had I held on to it, I likely wouldn't sell now, given its trajectory. My idea was to take profits, let it plummet (as it has before), then get back in. Problem was, it just kept running after I sold it! So, the challenge is we just don't know where it's going. To say someone who sells now will regret it is dicey at best. As much as I think I agree with you, it's anybody's guess.

Jtsummers 13y ago
So my view may not be the consensus, but it is based on one of the major criticisms of BTC. It's a deflationary currency, and it (presently) has a strict upperbound on the number of available coins. As evidenced in this thread, there are also many "missing" bitcoins (lost wallets), which further increase the scarcity of whole bitcoins. Assuming BTC gains traction. As it does, the limited resource will be spread over a larger and larger group of people. Each person will have a smaller amount than what would have been possible were it still limited to just thousands of people in the economy. If only 21 million people participate in the economy, 1 BTC would be the average per participant, 10x increase and 0.1 BTC would be the average. The median will be much lower as bitcoin itself does nothing to address wealth distribution issues, so if you retained 1 BTC from the early days, only considering the number of participants, its value is directly proportional to the number of participants (individuals, businesses and states). TL;DR - 1BTC is not quite infinite, but assuming the bitcoin economy becomes established and grows to a reasonable size, 1BTC today will be a small fortune in just a few more years (possibly sooner, but that'd be due to hype, IMO, rather than real value as a currency).
mrb 13y ago
Of course everybody has a different opinion. Bitcoin might be displaced by another cryptocurrency. There are many risks threatening Bitcoin. Etc. But with all these disclaimers in mind, I would say I estimate the worth of Bitcoin to be roughly the size of the remittance market, or the gold market, and possibly bigger. So I would say at the very least $100 to $1,000 billion. Divide by the maximum theoretical limit of 21 million bitcoins. That gives a worth of at the very least $5,000 to $50,000 to each bitcoin.
- unclebucknasty 13y ago
  Interesting approach, and not unreasonable, I'd guess. Current demand (presumably resulting from its recent traction in China) is insane. Price is marching straight up and to the right even as I type this. So, looks like the demand from new entrants is establishing at least a new range. Barring some horrible news, it's becoming difficult to see the sharp drop we've seen before. But, I guess that depends on how you look at it: The new entrants are either feeding the bubble or they're actually transferring wealth into BTC for the longer term. This article suggests the latter: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6756614 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6756614 EDIT: In addition, there seems to be a momentum building around BTC with Senate hearings today, more recent VC activity, and more media coverage, etc. I'm wondering if we're seeing a threshold-crossing here, and we'll look back to see this as the moment when BTC's future as a real alternative currency was sealed.
- vinchuco 13y ago
  >bitcoin discplaced by another cryptocurrency Like what? Will the other currencies ever catch up with BTC? What's the probability of this happening? Wouldn't BTC just become the standard, given it's acceptance?

thenmar 13y ago

Bitcoin will rise in value forever: proof by induction