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Rampant price speculation where the price encounters the incredible volatility that BTC has experienced is ALWAYS based on delusion. If you know of any counter

by steven2012 13y ago

Rampant price speculation where the price encounters the incredible volatility that BTC has experienced is ALWAYS based on delusion. If you know of any counter examples, I would be interested in learning about them. And remember, I have no problems with speculation and people making money off of this. And this speculation can go on for years. But in the end BTC will be worthless, because there is no inherent value to a BTC. Even the fundamental promise of Bitcoin being anonymous is inherently flawed! Sure, you can money launder it, but the US government will make quick work of that in due time. At least with tulip bulbs, you can grown them into flowers, and gold can be turned into jewelery and has industrial uses. BTC has literally zero inherent or fundamental uses for it. My guess is that it will keep rising until the US government starts cracking down hard on it, like they did with poker sites, etc. They've already put it on their radar screen, and a lot of these companies that deal with BTC don't understand the ramifications of money transmission. Once the US government starts shutting down in earnest, people will dump their BTC and it will be over.

Aqueous 13y ago
BTC does have inherent value. It is valuable to vendors because it is frictionless money transfer without regard to borders or regulation and very small transaction fees, making it very inexpensive to accept payments from anywhere in the world. It is valuable to authorities because of the public ledger and because it neutralizes the threat of foreign control over money supply. It is valuable to consumers because of its easy divisibility (it is far more divisible than gold) and the ability to spend it quickly and anonymously. Think of the BitCoin network as a financial superconductor - the resistance to movement is so small that its negligible. Is that not inherently valuable to our economy as a whole?
- steven2012 13y ago
  Doesn't it take a while for a BTC transaction to get confirmation? If so, that doesn't seem very frictionless. As well, since those transactions can be tracked, I don't think it will take very long for governments to start cracking down on them, and taxing them. They might force you to register your wallet, they will try to break up people who allow for anonymization/laundering of transactions, etc. It doesn't take a lot for real-life friction to make this pretty hard to use unless you just want to meet face-to-face and transfer BTC offline.
  - dllthomas 13y ago
    It's way frictionless compared to any of the other current methods of accepting payment electronically[1] . For many cases, where things have to go through a provisioning process that can be halted before the client has any benefit, you can confirm the order and let things progress and only check that there was no double-spend later (at which point you of course halt provisioning). I have no doubt that governments will find ways of taxing it that are at least as effective as those used to tax cash businesses presently. edited to add footnote: [1] ... as a relatively small player. My understanding is that payments between huge, well established institutions can approximate bitcoin in lack-of-friction.
    - steven2012 13y ago
      I disagree. I don't think there's any benefit of having to wait upwards of 10 minutes for a BTC confirmation, compared to credit cards which authorize in seconds and offer you a lot of protection from fraud. If I buy something through a BTC transaction, I have no recourse, much like a cash transaction, vs credit cards which have been regulated to provide customers with a lot of protection.
      - deleted 13y ago
        [deleted]
      - dllthomas 13y ago
        You are myopically looking only at the experience of the payer during the transaction (and perhaps after). There is a whole lot more going on that adds friction. To accept credit cards I need to fill out a bunch of paperwork, wait for blessing (which might be withheld), and then pay transaction fees on every exchange that are way higher than bitcoin transaction fees. They are likely to stay way higher since bitcoin allows direct competition on the basis of transaction fee. Then I'm faced with the possibility that the charges will be disputed! To use credit cards, I need to fill out a bunch of paperwork, wait for blessing (which may be withheld), and only then can I easily make these payments - with the acknowledged advantages you cite. I may also have to pay an annual fee, but that's often waived because - analogous to web advertising - VISA wants larger numbers to better convince businesses they need to accept VISA. Bitcoin is also substantially more resistant to fraud in one particular dimension: I am not constantly handing out my secret to every waiter and website I interact with.

Aqueous 13y ago

BTC does have inherent value. It is valuable to vendors because it is frictionless money transfer without regard to borders or regulation and very small transaction fees, making it very inexpensive to accept payments from anywhere in the world. It is valuable to authorities because of the public ledger and because it neutralizes the threat of foreign control over money supply. It is valuable to consumers because of its easy divisibility (it is far more divisible than gold) and the ability to spend it quickly and anonymously. Think of the BitCoin network as a financial superconductor - the resistance to movement is so small that its negligible. Is that not inherently valuable to our economy as a whole?

steven2012 13y ago
Doesn't it take a while for a BTC transaction to get confirmation? If so, that doesn't seem very frictionless. As well, since those transactions can be tracked, I don't think it will take very long for governments to start cracking down on them, and taxing them. They might force you to register your wallet, they will try to break up people who allow for anonymization/laundering of transactions, etc. It doesn't take a lot for real-life friction to make this pretty hard to use unless you just want to meet face-to-face and transfer BTC offline.
- dllthomas 13y ago
  It's way frictionless compared to any of the other current methods of accepting payment electronically[1] . For many cases, where things have to go through a provisioning process that can be halted before the client has any benefit, you can confirm the order and let things progress and only check that there was no double-spend later (at which point you of course halt provisioning). I have no doubt that governments will find ways of taxing it that are at least as effective as those used to tax cash businesses presently. edited to add footnote: [1] ... as a relatively small player. My understanding is that payments between huge, well established institutions can approximate bitcoin in lack-of-friction.
  - steven2012 13y ago
    I disagree. I don't think there's any benefit of having to wait upwards of 10 minutes for a BTC confirmation, compared to credit cards which authorize in seconds and offer you a lot of protection from fraud. If I buy something through a BTC transaction, I have no recourse, much like a cash transaction, vs credit cards which have been regulated to provide customers with a lot of protection.
    - deleted 13y ago
      [deleted]
    - dllthomas 13y ago
      You are myopically looking only at the experience of the payer during the transaction (and perhaps after). There is a whole lot more going on that adds friction. To accept credit cards I need to fill out a bunch of paperwork, wait for blessing (which might be withheld), and then pay transaction fees on every exchange that are way higher than bitcoin transaction fees. They are likely to stay way higher since bitcoin allows direct competition on the basis of transaction fee. Then I'm faced with the possibility that the charges will be disputed! To use credit cards, I need to fill out a bunch of paperwork, wait for blessing (which may be withheld), and only then can I easily make these payments - with the acknowledged advantages you cite. I may also have to pay an annual fee, but that's often waived because - analogous to web advertising - VISA wants larger numbers to better convince businesses they need to accept VISA. Bitcoin is also substantially more resistant to fraud in one particular dimension: I am not constantly handing out my secret to every waiter and website I interact with.