6 ms·

you realise that people said that when it reached the dizzy heights of $10/BTC, $100/BTC, $200/BTC, etc. The April 2013 crash looked like a massive spike until

by user24 13y ago

you realise that people said that when it reached the dizzy heights of $10/BTC, $100/BTC, $200/BTC, etc. The April 2013 crash looked like a massive spike until a few weeks ago, now it's a tiny blip. Who's to say whether the November 2013 spike will look like a tiny blip in 6 months?

brazzy 13y ago
You realise that nothing you wrote casts any doubt on my prediction? And that I didn't say the soon-to-come crash would be the end of Bitcoin? The leadup to the April crash looked exactly like what we see now: rapid and accelerating price increases within a few days. BTW, I correctly predicted the April crash 2 days in advance.
- user24 13y ago
  > The leadup to the April crash looked exactly like what we see now Past performance is not an indicator of future results > I didn't say the soon-to-come crash would be the end of Bitcoin You said "I give it less than 10 days until the crash" which sounds rather dismissive. I think you should work on your communication.
  - user24 13y ago
    also, 10 days is a massive amount of time for bitcoin. It doesn't take much to say "the price will go down a bit some time in the next 10 days".
    - brazzy 13y ago
      > 10 days is a massive amount of time for bitcoin. Well, that says really all there needs to be said. > It doesn't take much to say "the price will go down a bit some time in the next 10 days". OK, let me be more precise: "the price will go down to less than half its peak."
      - deleted 13y ago
        [deleted]
      - user24 13y ago
        You're on. I bet 0.00125 BTC that the lowest price as reported at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD won't fall below $321 USD until after Nov 29. To clarify, I will pay out under the following circumstances: You reply agreeing before this reply is "12 hours ago" I accept your reply On 2013-11-30: Load http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD Tick "custom time" Set start date as 2013-11-18 Set end date as 2013-11-29 If the "Lo" price is less than 321, I will pay. Otherwise you owe me 0.00125 BTC Deal? This will be interesting :)
        user24 13y ago
        By the way I think my terms are more than reasonable; Bitstamp traditionally has lower prices than MtGox, so that's in your favour. My terms are such that if any trade happens below $321, you win - not just daily average or what have you.
        brazzy 13y ago
        I'd take the bet but can't be bothered to acquire BTC for this purpose - which is kind telling, as is the fact that there's probably no better way to conducht the transaction either. I find it amusing that the payout would be skewed in your favor by the nature of the bet.
        user24 13y ago
        It's a shame that you won't take the bet, as I think you have a fair chance of winning it actually. Well, cheers anyway. Maybe I'll buy something in 10 days with the bitcoin I would have paid you ;) > the payout would be skewed in your favor by the nature of the bet. Yes, if I'd won, the amount would be worth more in dollars than if I lost. But if you're sincerely predicting a crash, you don't believe I'd have won.

by user24 13y ago

brazzy 13y ago

You realise that nothing you wrote casts any doubt on my prediction? And that I didn't say the soon-to-come crash would be the end of Bitcoin? The leadup to the April crash looked exactly like what we see now: rapid and accelerating price increases within a few days. BTW, I correctly predicted the April crash 2 days in advance.

user24 13y ago
> The leadup to the April crash looked exactly like what we see now Past performance is not an indicator of future results > I didn't say the soon-to-come crash would be the end of Bitcoin You said "I give it less than 10 days until the crash" which sounds rather dismissive. I think you should work on your communication.
- user24 13y ago
  also, 10 days is a massive amount of time for bitcoin. It doesn't take much to say "the price will go down a bit some time in the next 10 days".
  - brazzy 13y ago
    > 10 days is a massive amount of time for bitcoin. Well, that says really all there needs to be said. > It doesn't take much to say "the price will go down a bit some time in the next 10 days". OK, let me be more precise: "the price will go down to less than half its peak."
    - deleted 13y ago
      [deleted]
    - user24 13y ago
      You're on. I bet 0.00125 BTC that the lowest price as reported at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD won't fall below $321 USD until after Nov 29. To clarify, I will pay out under the following circumstances: You reply agreeing before this reply is "12 hours ago" I accept your reply On 2013-11-30: Load http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD Tick "custom time" Set start date as 2013-11-18 Set end date as 2013-11-29 If the "Lo" price is less than 321, I will pay. Otherwise you owe me 0.00125 BTC Deal? This will be interesting :)
      - user24 13y ago
        By the way I think my terms are more than reasonable; Bitstamp traditionally has lower prices than MtGox, so that's in your favour. My terms are such that if any trade happens below $321, you win - not just daily average or what have you.
        brazzy 13y ago
        I'd take the bet but can't be bothered to acquire BTC for this purpose - which is kind telling, as is the fact that there's probably no better way to conducht the transaction either. I find it amusing that the payout would be skewed in your favor by the nature of the bet.
        user24 13y ago
        It's a shame that you won't take the bet, as I think you have a fair chance of winning it actually. Well, cheers anyway. Maybe I'll buy something in 10 days with the bitcoin I would have paid you ;) > the payout would be skewed in your favor by the nature of the bet. Yes, if I'd won, the amount would be worth more in dollars than if I lost. But if you're sincerely predicting a crash, you don't believe I'd have won.