6 ms·

Do these numbers really mean anything? Not being sarcastic, this is a legitimate question. When people talk about Bitcoin it sounds like unicorns. Can you reall

by fat0wl 13y ago

Do these numbers really mean anything? Not being sarcastic, this is a legitimate question. When people talk about Bitcoin it sounds like unicorns. Can you really just buy & sell & turn a profit? How does a currency inflate so much in a short period of time? I wish I could hear an economist's analysis rather than the inevitable chorus of "I told you so, I'm a jillionaire now!" from Bitcoin advocates.

alaskamiller 13y ago
Limited supply, excess demand. Creates an awkward situation where no one will pay pizza with bitcoins for awhile.
- fat0wl 13y ago
  Yeah but where is all this demand coming from? Do people really think it will just keep going up without a crash? Personally I wouldn't pay $600 for something that someone paid $5 for in recent memory. It's like buying a stock during the peak of a bubble that's about to burst.
  - ekianjo 13y ago
    Check the other article published on HN "why the value of bitcoin is skyrocketing". The more people thing there is value in Bitcoin, the more it's going to go up. I don't think the value of Bitcoin is a bubble, rather a bet on the position of this currency in the future. A very different thing.
    - alaskamiller 13y ago
      I think it's just going through the technology curve. It jumped out of containment from the early adopters and now it's hitting the mainstream. To an average guy that just heard about some online investment opportunity where you put in $500 now and you get $100 more in a few days is a dream come true. Here's the pivotal point: there's now energy, momentum, and attention. The best thing you can do is establish domain expertise and market understanding and make bitcoin work. Or else it's going to be the next betamax. Shit, that was expensive too.
      - ekianjo 13y ago
        I don't there it's anywhere near mainstream yet. I know a number of my friends who follow economic newspapers regularly and who have yet to have paid serious attention to Bitcoin. It's still very much a niche, at least in the circles I know of.
      - alaskamiller 13y ago
        My team in China has now heard of it.
  - ashray 13y ago
    Chinese demand is currently driving global demand. They seem to love it.
- fat0wl 13y ago
  Hmm... but it's kindof scary that it's supposedly a currency but it's not really in practical use. From Wikipedia: Speculators have been attracted to Bitcoin, fueling volatility and price swings. As of July 2013, the use of Bitcoin in the retail and commercial marketplace is relatively small compared with the use by speculators. It reminds me of a similar analysis I read of Amway -- how only a small percentage of the products ever make it to retail consumers. If you have a currency that is supposed to end in consumer exchange but can't make it back down to that level, what is it really? It's a huge bubble that will have to go through many more transformations before ending up back in your wallet. Maybe by that time the gov't will have figured out how to tax it, or more exchanges will have disappeared. I don't know, seems odd. An interesting risk for those who believe in easy money, but it's strange to me that a gamble that so many are making would pay off for everyone involved. That's a very... ponzi scheme level of idealism. Once the price started to rise I think maybe it ceased being a viable currency and instead became a fantasy for those wanting to trade it at a profit. I mean, the price of currency isn't supposed to be so volatile, right? If the USD for example, were jumping around like this would people invest in it? Or would they lose faith in the dollar? EDIT: I found this article that seems to address a lot of these issues. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2013/04/bitcoin_is_a_ponzi_scheme_the_internet_currency_will_collapse.html http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_ch...
  - psionski 13y ago
    I'm using it as a currency. Compared to PayPal it's heaven - there are no weird rules about to whom you can send money and when and what for, it's much easier to use (you don't have to spend weeks to confirm your account, wait for credit card bills, fill out a thousand forms, etc.) and transactions are free, even international ones. Another bonus is that all accounts are publicly visible, so before donating to someone you can check how they're doing and decide whether to donate or not. P.S. Comparing it to banks... doesn't really make sense. It's like comparing the Internet not to a telephone, but to a telegraph. That's why I used PayPal.
    - fat0wl 13y ago
      But if you're using it as a currency how do you value it? Do you literally let people pay you 1 Bitcoin for $500 worth of merchandise? Also your telegraph analogy is something I've seen in several places and doesn't seem to mean anything. Plus I'm not really comparing Bitcoins to bank I'm more curious about the viability of a pump-and-dump system with a finite amount of units. If it's all based on speculation who is ever gonna spend the stuff? The logical point I keep ending at is that you need a buyer. AS SOON as it starts to dip down, everyone will smell "crash" and then how do you sell them? The bubble bursts. From then on I think 1 of 2 things will happen. 1. The system will completely fail in marvelous ways as the parties with large stake in it writhe in agony. 2. The value will reach a resting point and become ultra-stable because people will cease to believe in speculation for infinite profit margins.
chuinard 13y ago
If you had a Coinbase account, you could've bought up to 50 in the last week or two around $300, and now could sell them all back and make about $10,000.
- fat0wl 13y ago
  Are there any success stories of people who have done this? How easy is it to buy/sell? I heard something like "a mass sale would trash the price" so why hasn't that already occurred?
  - ashray 13y ago
    I've made about $15k buying low and selling high but the current run has pushed me into hold mode. I don't know when this is going to top out but it's fun to watch. It's not at all hard to buy and sell now as opposed to back in 2012. There are tons of options. Of course where the price will go is anyone's guess.. Edit: I should add that I did my transactions on bitstamp. Used to use MtGox earlier but it's not worth it, too many issues with them.
icedicedavid 13y ago
Yes, there are many ways to buy sell bitcoins. One of YC's company Coinbase is a good place to start: http://coinbase.com http://coinbase.com Then there are many more such as http://bitstamp.net http://bitstamp.net http://mtgox.com http://mtgox.com used to be the biggest, but now they are slow to withdraw in USD. You can see the pricing of bitcoin across multiple exchanges here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

by fat0wl 13y ago

alaskamiller 13y ago

Limited supply, excess demand. Creates an awkward situation where no one will pay pizza with bitcoins for awhile.

fat0wl 13y ago
Yeah but where is all this demand coming from? Do people really think it will just keep going up without a crash? Personally I wouldn't pay $600 for something that someone paid $5 for in recent memory. It's like buying a stock during the peak of a bubble that's about to burst.
- ekianjo 13y ago
  Check the other article published on HN "why the value of bitcoin is skyrocketing". The more people thing there is value in Bitcoin, the more it's going to go up. I don't think the value of Bitcoin is a bubble, rather a bet on the position of this currency in the future. A very different thing.
  - alaskamiller 13y ago
    I think it's just going through the technology curve. It jumped out of containment from the early adopters and now it's hitting the mainstream. To an average guy that just heard about some online investment opportunity where you put in $500 now and you get $100 more in a few days is a dream come true. Here's the pivotal point: there's now energy, momentum, and attention. The best thing you can do is establish domain expertise and market understanding and make bitcoin work. Or else it's going to be the next betamax. Shit, that was expensive too.
    - ekianjo 13y ago
      I don't there it's anywhere near mainstream yet. I know a number of my friends who follow economic newspapers regularly and who have yet to have paid serious attention to Bitcoin. It's still very much a niche, at least in the circles I know of.
    - alaskamiller 13y ago
      My team in China has now heard of it.
- ashray 13y ago
  Chinese demand is currently driving global demand. They seem to love it.
fat0wl 13y ago
Hmm... but it's kindof scary that it's supposedly a currency but it's not really in practical use. From Wikipedia: Speculators have been attracted to Bitcoin, fueling volatility and price swings. As of July 2013, the use of Bitcoin in the retail and commercial marketplace is relatively small compared with the use by speculators. It reminds me of a similar analysis I read of Amway -- how only a small percentage of the products ever make it to retail consumers. If you have a currency that is supposed to end in consumer exchange but can't make it back down to that level, what is it really? It's a huge bubble that will have to go through many more transformations before ending up back in your wallet. Maybe by that time the gov't will have figured out how to tax it, or more exchanges will have disappeared. I don't know, seems odd. An interesting risk for those who believe in easy money, but it's strange to me that a gamble that so many are making would pay off for everyone involved. That's a very... ponzi scheme level of idealism. Once the price started to rise I think maybe it ceased being a viable currency and instead became a fantasy for those wanting to trade it at a profit. I mean, the price of currency isn't supposed to be so volatile, right? If the USD for example, were jumping around like this would people invest in it? Or would they lose faith in the dollar? EDIT: I found this article that seems to address a lot of these issues. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2013/04/bitcoin_is_a_ponzi_scheme_the_internet_currency_will_collapse.html http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_ch...
- psionski 13y ago
  I'm using it as a currency. Compared to PayPal it's heaven - there are no weird rules about to whom you can send money and when and what for, it's much easier to use (you don't have to spend weeks to confirm your account, wait for credit card bills, fill out a thousand forms, etc.) and transactions are free, even international ones. Another bonus is that all accounts are publicly visible, so before donating to someone you can check how they're doing and decide whether to donate or not. P.S. Comparing it to banks... doesn't really make sense. It's like comparing the Internet not to a telephone, but to a telegraph. That's why I used PayPal.
  - fat0wl 13y ago
    But if you're using it as a currency how do you value it? Do you literally let people pay you 1 Bitcoin for $500 worth of merchandise? Also your telegraph analogy is something I've seen in several places and doesn't seem to mean anything. Plus I'm not really comparing Bitcoins to bank I'm more curious about the viability of a pump-and-dump system with a finite amount of units. If it's all based on speculation who is ever gonna spend the stuff? The logical point I keep ending at is that you need a buyer. AS SOON as it starts to dip down, everyone will smell "crash" and then how do you sell them? The bubble bursts. From then on I think 1 of 2 things will happen. 1. The system will completely fail in marvelous ways as the parties with large stake in it writhe in agony. 2. The value will reach a resting point and become ultra-stable because people will cease to believe in speculation for infinite profit margins.

chuinard 13y ago

If you had a Coinbase account, you could've bought up to 50 in the last week or two around $300, and now could sell them all back and make about $10,000.

fat0wl 13y ago
Are there any success stories of people who have done this? How easy is it to buy/sell? I heard something like "a mass sale would trash the price" so why hasn't that already occurred?
- ashray 13y ago
  I've made about $15k buying low and selling high but the current run has pushed me into hold mode. I don't know when this is going to top out but it's fun to watch. It's not at all hard to buy and sell now as opposed to back in 2012. There are tons of options. Of course where the price will go is anyone's guess.. Edit: I should add that I did my transactions on bitstamp. Used to use MtGox earlier but it's not worth it, too many issues with them.

icedicedavid 13y ago

Yes, there are many ways to buy sell bitcoins. One of YC's company Coinbase is a good place to start: http://coinbase.com http://coinbase.com Then there are many more such as http://bitstamp.net http://bitstamp.net http://mtgox.com http://mtgox.com used to be the biggest, but now they are slow to withdraw in USD. You can see the pricing of bitcoin across multiple exchanges here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/