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Bitcoin is gaining demand as a store of wealth. Given that BTC is limited in quantity, the value of 1 BTC is equal to the amount of wealth people want to store
by tilenius 13y ago
Bitcoin is gaining demand as a store of wealth. Given that BTC is limited in quantity, the value of 1 BTC is equal to the amount of wealth people want to store / # of BTC and the later is capped at 21M at least in the intermediate term as I understand it.
If there's demand to store $1 trillion of wealth in BTC, and let's say BTC supply is 20M at that point (keeps that math simple, LOL) then the price per BTC would be $50,000.
Is $1 trillion high or low? Well, as a point of comparison, there is about $8 trillion of wealth stored in gold. The largest bank in China has assets of just under $3 trillion. The largest US bank, $2.3 trillion.
So $1 trillion stored in Bitcoin is a lofty but attainable goal, IMHO.
Thus I think we may see price stabilization in the tens-of-thousands of dollars per bitcoin.
While $1M+ seems enticing, it would imply something like $20 trillion of wealth stored as bit coin which would dwarf any bank or even gold, so I think that is unlikely.
One of my favorite charts/metrics is to look at the "market cap" of Bitcoin (not the price per coin). This gives you the read of how much wealth is stored in BTC. It's worth sanity checking that vs. other things.
https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap
Right now it feels like there's a long way up, but again I'd probably peg the $50K range for a long-term target.
I've publicly tweeted a price target for 1 BTC to be worth more than 1 oz of gold within the next two years though. But at the rate it's growing, I'm tempted to revise the BTC / gold crossover point to within the next year.