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I think bitcoin is only starting to gain wider adoption. There are many indicators that the currency still has a long run up: * If you look at the numbers, the
by alste780 13y ago
I think bitcoin is only starting to gain wider adoption. There are many indicators that the currency still has a long run up:
* If you look at the numbers, there are today between 400K and 500K people in the world using bitcoin, which is a very small fraction of the population
* A new bitcoin exchange in China, the world's most populous country, has opened and offers traders 0% fees
* India, a country with more than a billion people, still does not have a major bitcoin exchange
* The bitcoin protocol has been around for more than 4 years and has been reviewed by some of the best developers in the world.
Many people are comparing the current run-up to the April bubble. The market today is much more fragmented. There are many, many more players, and thousands of cash-rich investors waiting on the sidelines for a small correction in price action to buy in. This alone would prevent an all-out sell-off.
Others point to how easily it is for one government to shut down bitcoin, by putting pressure on banks to close bitcoin exchange accounts. To do that, they would need a legitimate reason, which they don't have — and this will become more difficult as more legitimate merchants adopt bitcoin, especially the larger ones. If that does happen though, exchanges can relocate their accounts off-shore.
Bitcoin is still very small. The market cap is ~$5B, which is the size of a small company. For a currency that can be used by anyone anywhere in the world, that seems a little... undervalued.
Some of the above price targets may seem crazy, but if you compare that growth to the growth experienced by Apple or Amazon over the past few decades, it starts making sense. And bitcoin isn't a company; it's an international currency, so its growth potential is even higher.
My price target is $50K/BTC.
- Aqueous 13y ago$5B is the market cap of a large to very large company. A small company is in the $0.5 to $1 million range.
- alste780 13y agoIt's small- to medium-cap. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/small-cap.asp http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/small-cap.asp
- Aqueous 13y agoI see - you meant a small publicly traded company, which is a lot different (and bigger than) than a small company of any kind. When I think small company I think small business, which is significantly smaller than a $5B market cap.
- trevelyan 13y agoExcellent post. Just one correction -- there are only something like 425,000 addresses with more than 0.01 bitcoin in them, which is probably a reasonable upper limit on the total number of users: http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-ad... It looks to me like speculation is driving exchange services in different countries, which is encouraging arbitrage. Which is pushing us towards a world where one of the huge businesses bitcoin eats is the banking sector's spread on currency convertibility.