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And the same isn't true for the USD ? It's only true to the extent you believe the US government can't fail to increase economic activity YoY. Or, say, for a sm
by waps 13y ago
And the same isn't true for the USD ? It's only true to the extent you believe the US government can't fail to increase economic activity YoY. Or, say, for a small currency like the famous Swiss franc ? There are plenty of currencies where the stability of the state behind it is in doubt. I would say dictatorships like Dubai or Kuwait or ..., who have very badly paid "slaves" who far outnumber their own population are at a very significant risk of revolt. Or rather, they would never be able to prevent an even mildly popular revolt from taking over the state. They're not worthless, in fact they can be quite valuable.
And then of course, there's currencies of states that have little qualms of open currency manipulation like the Renminbi.
But even the USD, or at the very least it's value, but I'd argue the US state itself as well, has several critical dependencies. Oil would be the most obvious one, but easy and safe access to the seas, not just around the US, but all over the planet. And I'm sure there's dozens of other things.
In short : The US is not invincible, and I'm pretty sure the status of the USD currently does reflect that belief.
Note that this is a falsehood. Speaking on an indefinite timescale, it's an absolute certainty the US will fail. And economic output will falter with a much greater certainty. So it's a matter of when, not if. And the USD may have lasted longer than average for a currency, but it's nowhere near the top (that would be the Holy Roman Empire and it's Guilder (later replaced, and it's complex, depending on regions, ... I guess when a state celebrates a millenium's existence some issues crop up with the currency and they have to play around with it. Some day the US may be lucky enough to have to do the same. The "real" currency can be said to be silver).
It's also humbling to think that this very, very, very long running state did fail eventually (yes, you can make an argument that it didn't really fail, only parts did, most made smooth transitions to their currently existing forms ... I wouldn't agree with that argument but it's not indefensible).