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As the exchange rate rises buying Bitcoin will become ever more tempting. For those who haven't bought any Bitcoin yet do you think it's a good idea to commit n

As the exchange rate rises buying Bitcoin will become ever more tempting. For those who haven't bought any Bitcoin yet do you think it's a good idea to commit now, Odysseus-style, to not buy Bitcoin as an investment for N years? Edit: What I mean by "commitment" is that you absolutely won't invest in Bitcoin during that time no matter what happens to the exchange rate.

qwerta 13y ago
Time to buy bitcoins was 12+ months ago. Now it is way too volatile and cashing out could be problematic.
- a3voices 13y ago
  If you bought Bitcoin a month ago, your investment would have doubled, so clearly your logic is off.
  - ugexe 13y ago
    Who cares if it doubles if you can't sell it
    - a3voices 13y ago
      You can easily sell it. coinbase.com, bitstamp.com, btc-e.com...
      - jeffasinger 13y ago
        Depending on where you are localbitcoins makes it very easy to sell too.
      - ugexe 13y ago
        By easily do you mean at the whim of the company? Coinbase is pretty famous for stealing peoples bitcoins and/or not paying out.
        mistercow 13y ago
        Sources?
  - ronaldx 13y ago
    By saying the value is volatile, it admits the chance of increasingly quickly but also the chance of decreasing quickly. With the benefit of hindsight, it's very easy to see which happened, but this doesn't necessarily make something a good investment if you think it is volatile. If there was no risk associated with buying Bitcoin, its value would have already stabilised.
    - a3voices 13y ago
      If you have enough information you can make educated guesses about where the market will go. I've been following Bitcoin since 2011 so my predictions are accurate enough to invest.
      - ronaldx 13y ago
        Cool :) Good luck and mind out for black swans along your way ;)
- panarky 13y ago
  12 months ago I said the same thing. The exchange rate looked insanely high at the time. 12 months from now, what will I say? Maybe $459 per bitcoin will look insanely cheap in hindsight. Or maybe it will be seen as an unsustainable speculative mania.
mike_esspe 13y ago
Bitcoin is still in the early adopters phase.
Kequc 13y ago
I feel that it is obviously definitely not a good time to buy Bitcoin as it is at a peak in a speculative bubble. But additionally the world's largest exchange of Bitcoin (the magic the gathering online exchange) isn't allowing anyone to cash out. You are put on a waiting list. So to actually cash out you need to visit that one ATM in Vancouver, which gives you access to $1000/day if there's money in it. Or you need to sell your Bitcoin to someone or buy something with them. None of these are good reasons to buy Bitcoin.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- a3voices 13y ago
  Bitcoins are actually really easy to sell. Just transfer them to coinbase.com.
  - smtddr 13y ago
    Glad to hear good things about coinbase. I've been waiting for them to send the 2 small transactions to my bank-acct so they can verify it and I can buy bitcoins. I started the verification process on Tuesday. I also like their paper-wallet option so I don't have to worry about online hacks after buying the coins.
- rys 13y ago
  There are myriad exchanges other than Mt.Gox. that let you cash out quickly and easily.
- narcissus 13y ago
  I don't know if it's because I have given up coffee or what, but this post just rubbed me the wrong way for at least three reasons. Mt.Gox is not the world's largest exchange: most would agree that BTC China is, and possibly Bitstamp is coming in second. Mt.Gox is called Mt.Gox. It used to stand for Magic the Gathering Online Exchange. It does not anymore. Whatever your thoughts on the site, you have to at least give them the fact that you can no longer exchange MtG cards on the site, so that is no longer their market. They kept the name and pivoted what they do. If you can't handle people pivoting on HN of all places, good luck. Or maybe you're the kind of person that refers to LG as "that cheap ass Lucky Goldstar" too? Finally, Mt.Gox is definitely experiencing delays for North American withdrawals, and to a lesser (?) extent Europe. However they're not 'not allowing' anyone to cash out. I have no doubt, for example, that in Japan it's all good... their problems are with their bank. Anyway, hate on BTC and Mt.Gox for whatever reasons you want... but surely if your going to use reasons to persuade people away from something, you should at least use truth?
olalonde 13y ago
The boring answer is no one knows. My personal theory is that within a few years, either Bitcoin will be worth a lot (5 digits?) or it will be worth nothing.
- _wmd 13y ago
  I'm not a Bitcoin enthusiast, so coming at this from a pessimistic angle, it's increasingly starting to look like Bitcoin is here to stay. That still doesn't make it a good investment for 99.99% of people (nor does any poorly understood asset managed by an amateur!)

qwerta 13y ago

Time to buy bitcoins was 12+ months ago. Now it is way too volatile and cashing out could be problematic.

a3voices 13y ago
If you bought Bitcoin a month ago, your investment would have doubled, so clearly your logic is off.
- ugexe 13y ago
  Who cares if it doubles if you can't sell it
  - a3voices 13y ago
    You can easily sell it. coinbase.com, bitstamp.com, btc-e.com...
    - jeffasinger 13y ago
      Depending on where you are localbitcoins makes it very easy to sell too.
    - ugexe 13y ago
      By easily do you mean at the whim of the company? Coinbase is pretty famous for stealing peoples bitcoins and/or not paying out.
      - mistercow 13y ago
        Sources?
- ronaldx 13y ago
  By saying the value is volatile, it admits the chance of increasingly quickly but also the chance of decreasing quickly. With the benefit of hindsight, it's very easy to see which happened, but this doesn't necessarily make something a good investment if you think it is volatile. If there was no risk associated with buying Bitcoin, its value would have already stabilised.
  - a3voices 13y ago
    If you have enough information you can make educated guesses about where the market will go. I've been following Bitcoin since 2011 so my predictions are accurate enough to invest.
    - ronaldx 13y ago
      Cool :) Good luck and mind out for black swans along your way ;)
panarky 13y ago
12 months ago I said the same thing. The exchange rate looked insanely high at the time. 12 months from now, what will I say? Maybe $459 per bitcoin will look insanely cheap in hindsight. Or maybe it will be seen as an unsustainable speculative mania.

mike_esspe 13y ago

Bitcoin is still in the early adopters phase.

Kequc 13y ago

I feel that it is obviously definitely not a good time to buy Bitcoin as it is at a peak in a speculative bubble. But additionally the world's largest exchange of Bitcoin (the magic the gathering online exchange) isn't allowing anyone to cash out. You are put on a waiting list. So to actually cash out you need to visit that one ATM in Vancouver, which gives you access to $1000/day if there's money in it. Or you need to sell your Bitcoin to someone or buy something with them. None of these are good reasons to buy Bitcoin.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
a3voices 13y ago
Bitcoins are actually really easy to sell. Just transfer them to coinbase.com.
- smtddr 13y ago
  Glad to hear good things about coinbase. I've been waiting for them to send the 2 small transactions to my bank-acct so they can verify it and I can buy bitcoins. I started the verification process on Tuesday. I also like their paper-wallet option so I don't have to worry about online hacks after buying the coins.
rys 13y ago
There are myriad exchanges other than Mt.Gox. that let you cash out quickly and easily.
narcissus 13y ago
I don't know if it's because I have given up coffee or what, but this post just rubbed me the wrong way for at least three reasons. Mt.Gox is not the world's largest exchange: most would agree that BTC China is, and possibly Bitstamp is coming in second. Mt.Gox is called Mt.Gox. It used to stand for Magic the Gathering Online Exchange. It does not anymore. Whatever your thoughts on the site, you have to at least give them the fact that you can no longer exchange MtG cards on the site, so that is no longer their market. They kept the name and pivoted what they do. If you can't handle people pivoting on HN of all places, good luck. Or maybe you're the kind of person that refers to LG as "that cheap ass Lucky Goldstar" too? Finally, Mt.Gox is definitely experiencing delays for North American withdrawals, and to a lesser (?) extent Europe. However they're not 'not allowing' anyone to cash out. I have no doubt, for example, that in Japan it's all good... their problems are with their bank. Anyway, hate on BTC and Mt.Gox for whatever reasons you want... but surely if your going to use reasons to persuade people away from something, you should at least use truth?

olalonde 13y ago

The boring answer is no one knows. My personal theory is that within a few years, either Bitcoin will be worth a lot (5 digits?) or it will be worth nothing.

_wmd 13y ago
I'm not a Bitcoin enthusiast, so coming at this from a pessimistic angle, it's increasingly starting to look like Bitcoin is here to stay. That still doesn't make it a good investment for 99.99% of people (nor does any poorly understood asset managed by an amateur!)