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Planning fallacy: why people suck at planning and what to do about it
- clarebear 13y agoThe interesting insight here for me is that my tendency to under predict task times is ego driven. I always thought it was optimism ;-)
- alinavrabie 13y agoI guess our ego does a good job at fooling us :)
- nlawalker 13y agoTerminology nitpick: this article is not about planning, it's about estimation. Estimates, plans and commitments are three different things (see http://www.amazon.com/Software-Estimation-Demystifying-Practices-Microsoft/dp/0735605351 http://www.amazon.com/Software-Estimation-Demystifying-Pract..., which is the best book I've read on the subject). The problem with estimation in many cases is that people who dictate requirements often dictate commitments as well, and do so without estimation-based feedback. In other words: "Your ten-week 'estimate' isn't acceptable; we have to have this done in seven!"
- zawaideh 13y agoIn this example I would say commitments are getting in the way rather than the estimates, and the overall plan gets messed up. The way I see it, good estimates are simply a prerequisite to good planning, so they tie in together.
- ColinDabritz 13y agoAnother interesting division, from Software Estimation by McConnell is Estimates vs Targets vs Commitments. You could add "Goals" and "Plans" to that perhaps.