He mentions at the end of the piece that his EP-based analysis only applies in "typical" close games in normal weather when the clock is not yet a major factor.

He mentions at the end of the piece that his EP-based analysis only applies in "typical" close games in normal weather when the clock is not yet a major factor. And that an analysis based on Win Probability could correct for most of these factors. I'm skeptical of that last point. There are many, many variables that underlie football outcomes. Unlike baseball, where the most critical two players by far in any situation (the pitcher and the batter) are known in advance by both teams, a football play has the potential to be affected dramatically by any combination of players on the field. I am sympathetic to the idea that more teams should play aggressively on offense more often (and indeed I believe there are signs of this in today's NFL), but by no means should every team be expected to act according to the punt/FG/go-for-it chart in most situations. I think you're absolutely right to emphasize variance tradeoffs. When coaches try to reduce variance they are often criticized as "risk-averse", but that's often a winning strategy, even in games that are close enough score-wise to be considered "typical".