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Teams have a less than 50% chance of making it on average Ultimately, that's not what matters. Expected value is what matters. Take the example from the video
by tghw 13y ago
Teams have a less than 50% chance of making it on average
Ultimately, that's not what matters. Expected value is what matters.
Take the example from the video of a team on its own 5 yard line with 7 yards to go:
If they go for it and don't make it, they leave the other team with the ball on the 5 yard line, which they will convert into a touchdown 92% of the time, an expected value of -6.44 points. If they punt, the TD conversion goes down to 77%, an expected value of -5.39 points. Therefore, the break even is about 16% 4th down conversion rate. If a team can make it more than 1 in 6 times, they should go for it instead of punting. Since most NFL teams are in the 40-50% range, they should be going for it more often.
- dragonwriter 13y ago> Take the example from the video of a team on its own 5 yard line with 7 yards to go: > If they go for it and don't make it, they leave the other team with the ball on the 5 yard line Actually, if they go for it and don't make it, they either leave the other team with the ball somewhere between the goal line and just short of the 12, or they end up giving up a safety (which has both score and possession effects.) Failing to convert on fourth down doesn't mean that you hand the ball over where you were before fourth down in the general case (only in the cases of an incomplete pass or zero-yard run, which aren't the only cases of failing to make a first down.)
- gfunk911 13y agoThis is incorrect, because the scenario where they go for it and make it does not have a value of zero..it is still -EV
- tghw 13y agoIt's true, but I didn't have the data. Regardless, it decreases if they convert, which might double the break even point, but it still wouldn't be unreasonable.
- twoodfin 13y agoAre you claiming that most NFL teams gain 7+ yards on 40-50% of plays? That can't even be close to right.
- mehwoot 13y agoThere are 18 Quarterbacks in the NFL with an average Yards per Attempt over 7 yards. So it could be in the ballpark, at least.
- jcampbell1 13y agoAverage isn't relevant in this case. What you want is percent of Attempts over 7 yards (which is more akin to median). Four zero yard plays + Four five yard plays + two 25 yard plays = 7 yards per attempt, but a 20% success rate.