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It's not just football where the strategies popular at the moment are probably sub-optimal. Consider ice hockey. Most coaches, if down by a goal, will pull the
by teuobk 13y ago
It's not just football where the strategies popular at the moment are probably sub-optimal.
Consider ice hockey. Most coaches, if down by a goal, will pull the goalie for an extra attacker with about 90 seconds left in the game. It turns out that pulling the goalie significantly earlier, with about 3 minutes left in the game, would be more likely to result in a win:
http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~tim/papers/goalie.pdf http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~tim/papers/goalie.pdf
However, coaches are understandably reluctant to pull the goalie so early. When they're down by a goal near the end of the game, they're probably going to lose regardless. The public accepts that. However, if they lose anyway after employing an unorthodox strategy, the critics will be vicious, much as described in the football article.
- ams6110 13y agoThere's a similar thing going on with penalty shots. A penalty which when committed also deprives a player of a scoring opportunity can result in the non-offending team having the choice of a penalty shot or having the offending player serve the penalty. Teams will frequently choose the penalty shot, but statistically it's often a better choice to take the power play opportunity.