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4th down data is not non-standard for 4th down data. Sure, you can't say for sure what would have happened if they had gone for it, but there's nothing particul
by tghw 13y ago
4th down data is not non-standard for 4th down data. Sure, you can't say for sure what would have happened if they had gone for it, but there's nothing particularly different about these downs that would lead to a higher conversion rate.
- thejteam 13y agoI think the point is that if you are using game data then the only times the offense is currently going for it on fourth down is because they have some reason to believe they can make it with a high percentage. Football is not played with random number generators, the coaches and players understand the matchups and the chances they have of making X yards with the players and plays they have available. The teams that didn't go for it might have a reason to believe that with the players on the field the probability of them getting X yards was small.