You're thinking of Bitcoin like a stock. It is not a stock. Everyone agress that it is likely to either go up my orders of magnitude, or not do that. "Not do t

You're thinking of Bitcoin like a stock. It is not a stock. Everyone agress that it is likely to either go up my orders of magnitude, or not do that. "Not do that" includes local price fluctuations that aren't predictable anyway, which is what you are trying to predit--like a stock. Either invest in it because you want to invest in something that will either be the next HTTP or will be the next Gopher, OR don't invest in it because you don't want to invest in high-risk obsenely-high-return vehicles.