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Ask HN: What is the Future of Bitcoin?

2 points by vinchuco 13y ago

In the following: 5 years 10 years 20 years 40+ years Where do you base your predictions?

a3voices 13y ago
This is my prediction. Exponential growth based on its history so far. http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png
- Lionga 13y ago
  Just wait until 2023 and a single bitcoin is worth a whopping trillion dollars, or wait till 2026 when a single bitcoin is worth a quadrillion.
- vinchuco 13y ago
  not to dismiss your point, but http://xkcd.com/605/ http://xkcd.com/605/
  - a3voices 13y ago
    Nothing is totally predictable or unpredictable. Partly the reason we have brains is so we can predict the future. With enough knowledge and intelligence, you can do a decent job at it.
ferdo 13y ago
The future price of Bitcoin will recapitulate the rise of information: http://peculium.net/2013/04/08/bitcoin-is-a-bubble-only-if-you-think-the-rise-of-information-is-a-bubble/ http://peculium.net/2013/04/08/bitcoin-is-a-bubble-only-if-y...
justinireland 13y ago
Its fairly simple to estimate future value of BTC. The supply is fixed - there will never be more than 21,000,000 BTC in circulation so the only other factor is how big you think Bitcoin will become relative to other currencies. For example, there is about 1.22 Trillion USD in circulation. Right now BTC has a market capitalization of $4B which puts it at about 0.3% of USD. If BTC were to become even 5% of USD that would be a 16x increase over where it is now ($330 x 16 = $5500). So if you believe that BTC could be at least 5% of what USD is then you should expect BTC to be worth about $5500 ea. I personally think that is a conservative estimate. I expect at least $10k in the next 5 years.
adamb_ 13y ago
Here's my speculative answer: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6687535 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6687535
yen223 13y ago
My prediction: The fact that the supply of Bitcoins is fixed will bite it in the ass in the future. Some major player will hoard enough Bitcoins to be able to control the market, reducing people's trust in the currency and relegating the currency to a niche. Bitcoin will almost definitely not displace the USD within our lifetime.
ra00l 13y ago
At the current price (also growing as we speak), I think it's difficult to use bitcoins for buying stuff. Everybody is hoarding them, hoping for increases; hence the growth. How much will you pay for a coffe or an icecream? .0045 BTC? I see btc as a proof of concept that worked: easy, distributed way of transfering money.

2 points by vinchuco 13y ago

In the following: 5 years 10 years 20 years 40+ years Where do you base your predictions?

This is my prediction. Exponential growth based on its history so far. http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

Lionga 13y ago
Just wait until 2023 and a single bitcoin is worth a whopping trillion dollars, or wait till 2026 when a single bitcoin is worth a quadrillion.
vinchuco 13y ago
not to dismiss your point, but http://xkcd.com/605/ http://xkcd.com/605/
- a3voices 13y ago
  Nothing is totally predictable or unpredictable. Partly the reason we have brains is so we can predict the future. With enough knowledge and intelligence, you can do a decent job at it.

ferdo 13y ago

The future price of Bitcoin will recapitulate the rise of information: http://peculium.net/2013/04/08/bitcoin-is-a-bubble-only-if-you-think-the-rise-of-information-is-a-bubble/ http://peculium.net/2013/04/08/bitcoin-is-a-bubble-only-if-y...

justinireland 13y ago

Its fairly simple to estimate future value of BTC. The supply is fixed - there will never be more than 21,000,000 BTC in circulation so the only other factor is how big you think Bitcoin will become relative to other currencies. For example, there is about 1.22 Trillion USD in circulation. Right now BTC has a market capitalization of $4B which puts it at about 0.3% of USD. If BTC were to become even 5% of USD that would be a 16x increase over where it is now ($330 x 16 = $5500). So if you believe that BTC could be at least 5% of what USD is then you should expect BTC to be worth about $5500 ea. I personally think that is a conservative estimate. I expect at least $10k in the next 5 years.

adamb_ 13y ago

Here's my speculative answer: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6687535 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6687535

yen223 13y ago

My prediction: The fact that the supply of Bitcoins is fixed will bite it in the ass in the future. Some major player will hoard enough Bitcoins to be able to control the market, reducing people's trust in the currency and relegating the currency to a niche. Bitcoin will almost definitely not displace the USD within our lifetime.

ra00l 13y ago

At the current price (also growing as we speak), I think it's difficult to use bitcoins for buying stuff. Everybody is hoarding them, hoping for increases; hence the growth. How much will you pay for a coffe or an icecream? .0045 BTC? I see btc as a proof of concept that worked: easy, distributed way of transfering money.