Taleb makes an interesting argument regarding this in The Black Swan: If you flip a coin five times and you get five heads, what is the probability that the nex

Taleb makes an interesting argument regarding this in The Black Swan: If you flip a coin five times and you get five heads, what is the probability that the next flip is a head? You have two options: either you trust your (unproven) assumption that the coin is fair and that you just witnessed a very unlikely event and say "the past outcomes do not affect the probability of the next throw, it's 0.5." The other option, on the other hand, is to conclude that your assumption that the coin is fair is false, at which point you estimate the next throw based on the previous sequence and say "1.0". None of these are right or wrong, it just depends on what prior you trust.