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"The probability that a fair election would produce [these number distribution disparities] is less than .005." Careful with that reasoning. Suppose there are
by praptak 17y ago
"The probability that a fair election would produce [these number distribution disparities] is less than .005."
Careful with that reasoning. Suppose there are four candidates, and the last digits of their total vote counts are 8,7,2,8. Fewer than 1 in 9999 fair elections would produce a vote count with exactly those digits!
Does this mean that the vote was rigged?
Post-factum searching for (perceived) oddities and calculating probabilities of their occurences in uniform distributions shows some misunderstanding of statistics.
- otto 17y agoThe probability that a fair election would produce [these number distribution disparities] is less than .005. How did they calculate this probability. I can see what they did in other spots, but this number seems to come out of nowhere to me.
- berntb 17y agoYou can't prove anything, but can make probability arguments. This is all academic. Even the Guardian Council has admitted that there were more voters in 50 areas than eligible to vote. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.ht... Also note: "But many districts where the excess votes were recorded are small, remote places rarely visited by business travelers or tourists, analysts said" And so on, problem after problem. I dare say, the next election there will be "handled" better... :-)