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I wonder how did the "conventional intelligence" so grossly overstate the production of German tanks. If the conventional analysis were true there would be ~350
by dimitar 17y ago
I wonder how did the "conventional intelligence" so grossly overstate the production of German tanks. If the conventional analysis were true there would be ~350,000 tanks produced for two years of intensive warfare! Which is really funny considering that Germany invaded the Soviet Union with something like 4000 tanks if I recall correctly. 246 a month is the statistically estimated data, which is both close to the real number (245) and common sense - no matter how much you militarize a country you still need raw materials and Nazi Germany was no Soviet Union.
the source for this in wikipedia is the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jul/20/secondworldwar.tvandradio http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jul/20/secondworldwar.t...
addition: such a feat of production was possible, but in the Soviet Union and at an extraordinary high cost of human lives and slave labor.
addition2: In fairness the Germans could produce more tanks if they wanted to. But they built some pretty useless ships thought - Graf Zeppelin or Bismarck, for example and oversize guns like the famous Dora. But still.. there is a limit to the number of tanks realistically produced and Allied intelligence must have been aware of the availability of raw materials in the Reich and the construction of Bismark and Tirpitz and all the other huge ships (their construction began before the war).
- ErrantX 17y ago>how did the "conventional intelligence" so grossly overstate the production Probably 1 word - fear. Or more explicitly fear of underestimating the figures; that kind of thing can be fatal! The human factor in this example is huge (nearly a factor of 8 I think for some months) but you can see the same happening everywhere. No matter how precise the statistical estimates are a human will always think "yeh but they could......" :)
- ijuyhgtyu 17y agoThe same way that U boat captains overestimated the ships they sunk and pilots overestimated the planes they shot own - every plane they took a shot at was counted a hit. It's the same way you estimate how long a bug fix will take, every line of code you touch is 'fixed'.