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According to investopedia[1] - An investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share pric
by clarky07 13y ago
According to investopedia[1] - An investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.
At the very least, if not me, Warren Buffett has shown that the market does in fact exhibit large-scale persistent opportunities. You just have to be patient. I don't think "arbitrage" is actually the relevant term here. It has a very specific meaning that isn't simply a stock being mispriced. Really though, the market offers deals all the time.
FWIW, I don't have Buffett's track record, but I currently have 20 stocks in my portfolio most of which I've held for several years. Of those, 19 have made money and 1 has lost a small amount, and on the whole I've beaten the market nicely. I could just be written off as lucky, or as about to lose lots of money, but how do you explain Buffett? He has a track record of consistently beating the market by wide margins for 50 years. Seems like that wouldn't be possible under EMH.
[1] http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesi...
- jerf 13y ago"Opportunities" is not "arbitrage". The value of an item going up over time is not disproof of a market's efficiency; efficiency is a point-in-time characteristic, not an across-time characteristic. A market is not required to be psychic to be efficient. It especially doesn't pertain to the case where someone generates value; Warren Buffet is not a passive purchaser of stocks, Warren Buffet seeks out stocks where he can generate value in some manner with better management. As for your positive returns, the easiest explanation is that you're in a green square on this graph (suitably updated): http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110... (Read what the graph is carefully, most people misinterpret it at first glance.)
- onebaddude 13y ago>According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices... ...on average. Which is what makes "beating" the market, over enough time, impossible. But we know there are pricing discrepancies and information asymmetries in finite periods of time because we see them every day.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]