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There are about 150,000 car fires in the US per year [1]. Tesla is on pace for about 12 fires per year (1 per month, as one of these three fires happened in Me

There are about 150,000 car fires in the US per year [1]. Tesla is on pace for about 12 fires per year (1 per month, as one of these three fires happened in Mexico). There are probably ~15,000 total Teslas on the Road in the US, out of about 200 million cars. On the surface, Tesla has .8 fires per 1000 vehicles, where as .75 fires per 1000 vehicles is the US average. [1] http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicles http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle...

dkokelley 13y ago
Great link. I was looking for some actual figures, but hadn't found anything yet. The best measure of fire 'likelihood' is probably the incidence per vehicle mile driven, because it captures actual utilization. Right now, the total number for 2003-2007 was 90 highway vehicle fires per billion miles driven. (http://www.nfpa.org/research/statistical-reports/vehicles/vehicle-fire-trends-and-patterns http://www.nfpa.org/research/statistical-reports/vehicles/ve...) The question remains: what is that number for the Tesla Model S? So far we know of 3 fires. The last piece of the puzzle is how many miles have the Model S cars driven? The average annual miles driven for all vehicles is about 13,000 (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). Assuming driving habits are identical between Tesla owners and non-Tesla owners, we can get a rough upper limit of 195 million miles driven (the actual number is less because most model S owners have had their vehicle for less than one year). Back of the envelope calculations show that comes out to 65 million miles per fire (rough upper limit), without additional fires. Given the above data on all vehicles, similar reporting shows that the average vehicle goes about 11.1 million miles per fire. Assumptions and research issues: Vehicle fire data for 2003-2007 has not significantly changed There are 15,000 Model S's on the road (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/20/teslamotors-results-idUSL4N0BK65V20130220 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/20/teslamotors-result...) Tesla owners drive the national average of 13,000 miles per year in their Model S's, and have had their cars for an average of one year. If the fire issue is systemic, the rate of fires will go up, and that is not captured here.
deleted 13y ago
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dkokelley 13y ago

Great link. I was looking for some actual figures, but hadn't found anything yet. The best measure of fire 'likelihood' is probably the incidence per vehicle mile driven, because it captures actual utilization. Right now, the total number for 2003-2007 was 90 highway vehicle fires per billion miles driven. (http://www.nfpa.org/research/statistical-reports/vehicles/vehicle-fire-trends-and-patterns http://www.nfpa.org/research/statistical-reports/vehicles/ve...) The question remains: what is that number for the Tesla Model S? So far we know of 3 fires. The last piece of the puzzle is how many miles have the Model S cars driven? The average annual miles driven for all vehicles is about 13,000 (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm). Assuming driving habits are identical between Tesla owners and non-Tesla owners, we can get a rough upper limit of 195 million miles driven (the actual number is less because most model S owners have had their vehicle for less than one year). Back of the envelope calculations show that comes out to 65 million miles per fire (rough upper limit), without additional fires. Given the above data on all vehicles, similar reporting shows that the average vehicle goes about 11.1 million miles per fire. Assumptions and research issues: Vehicle fire data for 2003-2007 has not significantly changed There are 15,000 Model S's on the road (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/20/teslamotors-results-idUSL4N0BK65V20130220 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/20/teslamotors-result...) Tesla owners drive the national average of 13,000 miles per year in their Model S's, and have had their cars for an average of one year. If the fire issue is systemic, the rate of fires will go up, and that is not captured here.

deleted 13y ago

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