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I wonder how many gas-fueled car fires have there been in the last two months... just asking.

sjtgraham 13y ago
pro rata
001sky 13y ago
FYI only ~2% of auto fires involve the fuel system.[1] If this fire was battery related, we are now at 100% for TSLA [1] On public highways.
- bastawhiz 13y ago
  That's not the fairest of comparisons. It'd be like saying only 7% of jet crashes happen because of a malfunction in the vicinity of the cockpit but 100% of hot air balloon crashes happen because of a malfunction in the vicinity of the cockpit. Just because the concentration of failures is on one component doesn't mean the component if generally defective; in this case it just (potentially) means there's fewer components.
  - 001sky 13y ago
    no, you are missing the point. the battery is not defective. the battery system is just more likely to catch fire when compromised. petrol fuel systems are not only more protected from damage (typically, behind the second axle) but also just less likely to catch fire (on the hwy)[1]. You generally need both a puncture and a spark. A battery shorts with Just a puncture by something metal (usually), so there is one less logical step. [1] High-pressure fuel lines are well protected outside of the battery, also (they are small) en route to the intake manifold. Here, the EFI rail is also behind the engine block and not likely to take a direct impact. Even then, they are flexible and not likly to break (they would bend).
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
- eridius 13y ago
  > minor fender benders Where did it say this was a "minor fender bender"? This article doesn't have much detail, but the first fire was a result of a large chunk of metal on the road levering up and stabbing into the engine compartment. I have no doubt that the exact same incidence with a gas-powered car could have had a significantly worse result than the contained fire the Tesla experienced.
  - EpicEng 13y ago
    Given the fact that the article is vague, you should definitely "have doubt", but you're right; I was thinking about the first crash. I overstated that by a mile.
- patrickread 13y ago
  "minor fender benders" The second crash in Mexico definitely was not. “This was a significant accident where the car was traveling at such a high speed that it smashed through a concrete wall and then hit a large tree, yet the driver walked away from the car with no permanent injury.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/tesla-says-model-s-driver-unhurt-in-mexico-crash.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/tesla-says-model-s-...
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
darrenkopp 13y ago
There was an earlier thread today that did the numbers on this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6689591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6689591
codemac 13y ago
Well let's be specific. Given a normalization of usage, period of ownership, driving habits, and maintenance: do they have a different rate of fires that is statistically significant. I don't know the answer, but that's the question you should be "just asking".
- 001sky 13y ago
  Tesla is now 3x more likely than a petrol car to have fire on the fwy.
jggonz 13y ago
It appears that in two months, you can expect: (152,300 fires per year) / (6 months) = 25,383 automobile fires based on data from 2006-2010 U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 152,300 automobile fires per year in 2006-2010. These fires caused an average of 209 civilian deaths, 764 civilian injuries, and $536 million in direct property damage. Facts and Figures - Automobile fires were involved in 10% of reported U.S. fires, 6% of U.S. fire deaths. - On average, 17 automobile fires were reported per hour. These fires killed an average of four people every week. - Mechanical or electrical failures or malfunctions were factors in roughly two-thirds of the automobile fires. - Collisions and overturns were factors in only 4% of highway vehicle fires, but these incidents accounted for three of every five (60%) automobile fire deaths. - Only 2% of automobile fires began in fuel tanks or fuel lines, but these incidents caused 15% of the automobile fire deaths. Source: http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicles http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle...
- 001sky 13y ago
  about 80% involve cars in parking lots, at rest, in repair shops, etc. So, you need to adjust the data. of the 152k, only a subset [~26k] were on public highways. Once you do this, a tsla now has 3x (300%) the chance of a normal car in catching fire in a highway accident, when corrected for miles driven, etc. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6499111 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6499111
  - rattray 13y ago
    Care to share your calculations? They're quite the reverse of my back-of-the-envelope, which rounds to an egregious degree, and doesn't take into account the subset on public highways or not: 150,000 fires / 250mm total cars in america: ~ .0006 3 fires / 20,000 Teslas (their expectation for this year: ~.00015 (4x fewer fires) I'm not sure whether we should care that gas cars catch fire in parking lots rather than highways... it seems like a huge concern regardless.
    - 001sky 13y ago
w0utert 13y ago
>> I wonder how many gas-fueled car fires have there been in the last two months... just asking. Contrary to popular belief (and maybe common sense), gas-fueled cars rarely catch fire because of the gas in the tank. You'd need a gas leak and some form of external ignition, which rarely occur together. Apparenly with a battery-powered car, all you need is piercing damage to the battery.
puma1 13y ago
Yea but there aren't that many Tesla's on the road are there?
whyenot 13y ago
Let's do a "back of the envelope" calculation: Between 2006 and 2010 there were on average 152,300 automobile fires per year [1] so a reasonable estimate for 2 months would be 25,383. There are approximately 19,000 Tesla Model S sedans on the road [2]. If we assume most of those vehicles are in the US, then the Tesla model S represents 0.007469% of the 254.4 million passenger vehicles in the US [3]. One would expect 1.8 Tesla Model S fires in a 2 month period if the chances of a fire are no different for the Model S than other vehicles. But, this calculation doesn't take into account several other mitigating factors, for example if fires are more common in older cars than new cars. [1] http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicles http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle... [2] http://www.engadget.com/2013/11/05/tesla-q3-2013-earnings/ http://www.engadget.com/2013/11/05/tesla-q3-2013-earnings/ [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_Unite...

pro rata

FYI only ~2% of auto fires involve the fuel system.[1] If this fire was battery related, we are now at 100% for TSLA [1] On public highways.

bastawhiz 13y ago
That's not the fairest of comparisons. It'd be like saying only 7% of jet crashes happen because of a malfunction in the vicinity of the cockpit but 100% of hot air balloon crashes happen because of a malfunction in the vicinity of the cockpit. Just because the concentration of failures is on one component doesn't mean the component if generally defective; in this case it just (potentially) means there's fewer components.
- 001sky 13y ago
  no, you are missing the point. the battery is not defective. the battery system is just more likely to catch fire when compromised. petrol fuel systems are not only more protected from damage (typically, behind the second axle) but also just less likely to catch fire (on the hwy)[1]. You generally need both a puncture and a spark. A battery shorts with Just a puncture by something metal (usually), so there is one less logical step. [1] High-pressure fuel lines are well protected outside of the battery, also (they are small) en route to the intake manifold. Here, the EFI rail is also behind the engine block and not likely to take a direct impact. Even then, they are flexible and not likly to break (they would bend).

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

eridius 13y ago
> minor fender benders Where did it say this was a "minor fender bender"? This article doesn't have much detail, but the first fire was a result of a large chunk of metal on the road levering up and stabbing into the engine compartment. I have no doubt that the exact same incidence with a gas-powered car could have had a significantly worse result than the contained fire the Tesla experienced.
- EpicEng 13y ago
  Given the fact that the article is vague, you should definitely "have doubt", but you're right; I was thinking about the first crash. I overstated that by a mile.
patrickread 13y ago
"minor fender benders" The second crash in Mexico definitely was not. “This was a significant accident where the car was traveling at such a high speed that it smashed through a concrete wall and then hit a large tree, yet the driver walked away from the car with no permanent injury.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/tesla-says-model-s-driver-unhurt-in-mexico-crash.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/tesla-says-model-s-...
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]

darrenkopp 13y ago

There was an earlier thread today that did the numbers on this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6689591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6689591

codemac 13y ago

Well let's be specific. Given a normalization of usage, period of ownership, driving habits, and maintenance: do they have a different rate of fires that is statistically significant. I don't know the answer, but that's the question you should be "just asking".

001sky 13y ago
Tesla is now 3x more likely than a petrol car to have fire on the fwy.

jggonz 13y ago

It appears that in two months, you can expect: (152,300 fires per year) / (6 months) = 25,383 automobile fires based on data from 2006-2010 U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 152,300 automobile fires per year in 2006-2010. These fires caused an average of 209 civilian deaths, 764 civilian injuries, and $536 million in direct property damage. Facts and Figures - Automobile fires were involved in 10% of reported U.S. fires, 6% of U.S. fire deaths. - On average, 17 automobile fires were reported per hour. These fires killed an average of four people every week. - Mechanical or electrical failures or malfunctions were factors in roughly two-thirds of the automobile fires. - Collisions and overturns were factors in only 4% of highway vehicle fires, but these incidents accounted for three of every five (60%) automobile fire deaths. - Only 2% of automobile fires began in fuel tanks or fuel lines, but these incidents caused 15% of the automobile fire deaths. Source: http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicles http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle...

001sky 13y ago
about 80% involve cars in parking lots, at rest, in repair shops, etc. So, you need to adjust the data. of the 152k, only a subset [~26k] were on public highways. Once you do this, a tsla now has 3x (300%) the chance of a normal car in catching fire in a highway accident, when corrected for miles driven, etc. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6499111 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6499111
- rattray 13y ago
  Care to share your calculations? They're quite the reverse of my back-of-the-envelope, which rounds to an egregious degree, and doesn't take into account the subset on public highways or not: 150,000 fires / 250mm total cars in america: ~ .0006 3 fires / 20,000 Teslas (their expectation for this year: ~.00015 (4x fewer fires) I'm not sure whether we should care that gas cars catch fire in parking lots rather than highways... it seems like a huge concern regardless.
  - 001sky 13y ago

w0utert 13y ago

>> I wonder how many gas-fueled car fires have there been in the last two months... just asking. Contrary to popular belief (and maybe common sense), gas-fueled cars rarely catch fire because of the gas in the tank. You'd need a gas leak and some form of external ignition, which rarely occur together. Apparenly with a battery-powered car, all you need is piercing damage to the battery.

puma1 13y ago

Yea but there aren't that many Tesla's on the road are there?

whyenot 13y ago

Let's do a "back of the envelope" calculation: Between 2006 and 2010 there were on average 152,300 automobile fires per year [1] so a reasonable estimate for 2 months would be 25,383. There are approximately 19,000 Tesla Model S sedans on the road [2]. If we assume most of those vehicles are in the US, then the Tesla model S represents 0.007469% of the 254.4 million passenger vehicles in the US [3]. One would expect 1.8 Tesla Model S fires in a 2 month period if the chances of a fire are no different for the Model S than other vehicles. But, this calculation doesn't take into account several other mitigating factors, for example if fires are more common in older cars than new cars. [1] http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicles http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle... [2] http://www.engadget.com/2013/11/05/tesla-q3-2013-earnings/ http://www.engadget.com/2013/11/05/tesla-q3-2013-earnings/ [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_Unite...