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The indicative $45-47 opening price finally convinced me of getting out of (tech) stocks in general. We're talking about $20B valuation for a company which has

The indicative $45-47 opening price finally convinced me of getting out of (tech) stocks in general. We're talking about $20B valuation for a company which has never made money. I know "this is different", and it has a lot of users, and so on. Still, I'd be cautious.

JonFish85 13y ago
Biggest thing to remember is that this is an exit, the end for the early investors. As far as I'm concerned, that's all it is. To me, in a lot of ways, this is the "end" of Twitter (not as a company, necessarily) in the sense that everything changes now. All of the details of their financials are going to be exposed from here on out, for better or worse. It's no longer about just user acquisition, it's about making money to satisfy the many more shareholders that they are about to get. It'll be interesting to watch!
- larrys 13y ago
  "Biggest thing to remember is that this is an exit" Which is always interesting because regular people think about whether ideas make sense and investors think about whether they can simply get the idea to the point where a greater fool buys into it. At that point they are right and everyone who thought that the idea wouldn't work is wrong. Ironically.
ThomPete 13y ago
I thought they where profitable?
- sz4kerto 13y ago
  No, never.
  - stephenhuey 13y ago
    Here are some numbers on revenue and losses: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-heck-is-wrong-with-twitter-ipo-reveals-the-company-has-a-lot-of-work-to-do-2013-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-heck-is-wrong-with-t...
    - stephenhuey 13y ago
      And here are some detailed numbers: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATWTR&fstype=ii&ei=TL17UqCbK4G20AH2PA https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATWTR&fstype=ii&ei=TL...
ry0ohki 13y ago
Never been profitable maybe, but it has certainly made money
- rtpg 13y ago
  no kidding. It's made money, and if we're still on the "people's data are valuable", usage habits and advertiser's stories suggest that Twitter's user data is a lot more useful for targeted advertising than things like FB are.
pachydermic 13y ago
Yeah that just seems crazy to me. Someone's going to make money, though... EDIT: Wow! Who are the people buying this at $49 a share?!
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
sheri 13y ago
Maybe I'm old, but I'm still struggling to figure out if Twitter is a short-term fad, or a serious here-to-stay concept (and thus a company) in our lives. I like to imagine say a 10-15 year time frame, and if I think the company will still be around then. Netflix, for example, at least has a business model which I see becoming pervasive 15 years down the line (on-demand entertainment over the internet). Of course I don't know if Netflix will be the company to dominate that business model 15 years down the line. With Twitter, I am not yet convinced this has long-term value here, but maybe I don't get the value it has in other's minds.
- larrys 13y ago
  I'm on the side of no long term value. (Not to mention that even if it is long term can it be profitable.) The reason I think "no long term" is that in it's current incarnation it doesn't hold value for "normals" other than people who want to follow celebrities or of course the tech crowd. Or are obsessed with knowing the moment there is an earthquake on another continent. That's essentially entertainment. It's not something you need to know (in masses of course there could be individuals that need to monitor those things.) I mean sure it is useful to be notified of some event that happens but personally I don't think the need for that is greater than the current alternatives of getting that information (or that a better way to get that information wouldn't be developed). Most employed people with "regular" jobs are not all obsessed with twitter and the information that it delivers. Netflix, otoh, delivers a product that people have received for many years by a better method. And the money making part is baked right into the product.
  - icehawk219 13y ago
    I feel like there's probably plenty of people outside of tech that fall within the "normals" bucket you're referring to that get value out of Twitter. I think their real problem (besides is it sustainable) is that it's not vital or irreplaceable. If Twitter went away tomorrow the people who would be hurt the most are the ones communicating out with it, not the ones consuming from it. And those are the people they are trying to monetize. Think of how most of us here who work on SaaS platforms would try to monetize something like Twitter if we just thought it up today and Twitter had never existed. We'd probably put a pricing structure in place along the lines of "$x/mo per million followers" or "$x/mo per $y tweets". I know plenty of people who like Twitter and use it regularly but it's something they check now and then and if they forget to or miss something it's not a big deal to them.

JonFish85 13y ago

Biggest thing to remember is that this is an exit, the end for the early investors. As far as I'm concerned, that's all it is. To me, in a lot of ways, this is the "end" of Twitter (not as a company, necessarily) in the sense that everything changes now. All of the details of their financials are going to be exposed from here on out, for better or worse. It's no longer about just user acquisition, it's about making money to satisfy the many more shareholders that they are about to get. It'll be interesting to watch!

larrys 13y ago
"Biggest thing to remember is that this is an exit" Which is always interesting because regular people think about whether ideas make sense and investors think about whether they can simply get the idea to the point where a greater fool buys into it. At that point they are right and everyone who thought that the idea wouldn't work is wrong. Ironically.

ThomPete 13y ago

I thought they where profitable?

sz4kerto 13y ago
No, never.
- stephenhuey 13y ago
  Here are some numbers on revenue and losses: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-heck-is-wrong-with-twitter-ipo-reveals-the-company-has-a-lot-of-work-to-do-2013-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-heck-is-wrong-with-t...
  - stephenhuey 13y ago
    And here are some detailed numbers: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATWTR&fstype=ii&ei=TL17UqCbK4G20AH2PA https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATWTR&fstype=ii&ei=TL...

ry0ohki 13y ago

Never been profitable maybe, but it has certainly made money

rtpg 13y ago
no kidding. It's made money, and if we're still on the "people's data are valuable", usage habits and advertiser's stories suggest that Twitter's user data is a lot more useful for targeted advertising than things like FB are.

pachydermic 13y ago

Yeah that just seems crazy to me. Someone's going to make money, though... EDIT: Wow! Who are the people buying this at $49 a share?!

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

sheri 13y ago

Maybe I'm old, but I'm still struggling to figure out if Twitter is a short-term fad, or a serious here-to-stay concept (and thus a company) in our lives. I like to imagine say a 10-15 year time frame, and if I think the company will still be around then. Netflix, for example, at least has a business model which I see becoming pervasive 15 years down the line (on-demand entertainment over the internet). Of course I don't know if Netflix will be the company to dominate that business model 15 years down the line. With Twitter, I am not yet convinced this has long-term value here, but maybe I don't get the value it has in other's minds.

larrys 13y ago
I'm on the side of no long term value. (Not to mention that even if it is long term can it be profitable.) The reason I think "no long term" is that in it's current incarnation it doesn't hold value for "normals" other than people who want to follow celebrities or of course the tech crowd. Or are obsessed with knowing the moment there is an earthquake on another continent. That's essentially entertainment. It's not something you need to know (in masses of course there could be individuals that need to monitor those things.) I mean sure it is useful to be notified of some event that happens but personally I don't think the need for that is greater than the current alternatives of getting that information (or that a better way to get that information wouldn't be developed). Most employed people with "regular" jobs are not all obsessed with twitter and the information that it delivers. Netflix, otoh, delivers a product that people have received for many years by a better method. And the money making part is baked right into the product.
- icehawk219 13y ago
  I feel like there's probably plenty of people outside of tech that fall within the "normals" bucket you're referring to that get value out of Twitter. I think their real problem (besides is it sustainable) is that it's not vital or irreplaceable. If Twitter went away tomorrow the people who would be hurt the most are the ones communicating out with it, not the ones consuming from it. And those are the people they are trying to monetize. Think of how most of us here who work on SaaS platforms would try to monetize something like Twitter if we just thought it up today and Twitter had never existed. We'd probably put a pricing structure in place along the lines of "$x/mo per million followers" or "$x/mo per $y tweets". I know plenty of people who like Twitter and use it regularly but it's something they check now and then and if they forget to or miss something it's not a big deal to them.