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Can we please stop drawing conclusions about tech companies from their revenue figures? At this point it's a tired trope on hacker news that technology companie
by jfasi 13y ago
Can we please stop drawing conclusions about tech companies from their revenue figures? At this point it's a tired trope on hacker news that technology companies' valuations can't be explained by traditional equity analysis techniques.
Technology equities have highly variable price to earnings rations because of the expectation of greater growth in the future. This expectation means investors are effectively speculating about the future growth of the company, rather than making decisions based on classic quantitative methods like you would apply to an older company in a better understood industry. Applying these methods ignores this dynamic and also buys into the myth of the quantitative analysis that's so appealing to mathematically minded geeks like ourselves.
I submit that the only thing posts like these really accomplish is letting the author stroke his or her by using big words and apparently clever concepts, while simultaneously making it clear that they're misunderstanding the market.
- programminggeek 13y agoIf what you're trying to say is that the market prices tech companies irrationally and people should get over that, then yes I totally agree. A smarter model for valuing tech companies would look at what their actual worth is, then separately factor in some kind of "bubble factor" or "irrational exuberance" factor that would price in the sentiment of people buying/selling the stock itself.
- jfasi 13y agoAgain, you're missing the point and buying into the myth of the quantitative analyst. Irrationality and emotion are like a balloon: you squeeze on one end by implementing a bubble factor (however you defined that...) and the irrationality comes out on the other end.