4 ms·

Looking at the chart it doesn't seem as volatile as mainstream media leads us to believe.

by jackgolding 13y ago

imd23 13y ago
Some days are really volatile.
necubi 13y ago
It increases 50% in a week, and you don't consider that volatile?
- JanezStupar 13y ago
  You know, its the oscillations == volatility philosophy. Of course only should only look at daily graphs no older than two days. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460zigDailyztgSz...
  - ramchip 13y ago
    I don't think philosophy has much to do here. Volatility is a financial term with a precise, mathematical definition.
jaibot 13y ago
The fuck? USD changes less than 2% a year. Within the last _six months_ BTC has been valued at anywhere from $65 to $321 USD (http://bitcoinity.org/markets http://bitcoinity.org/markets). It would be incredibly difficult to oversell how volatile BTC is - it's really, really, really, really fucking volatile.
this_user 13y ago
Your average currency pair moves less than 1% on almost all days. Moves above 1% are rare and days with moves of several percent are extremely rare and occur a couple of times a year at most. BTC, on the other hand, may be worth anything from 250 to 60 USD a day. That is the reason why BTC as a currency is of little use. You cannot do serious business with something like this unless you immediately hedge all of your exposure. In a larger organisation that would be impossible and, on the other hand, only means that someone else is holding the bag for the next crash. BTC is driven by little to no fundamental data. Its exchange rate is subject to pure mass psychology which is why it repeatedly goes through boom and bust cycles. This is not going to stop unless something like a real BTC economy of non-trivial size develops. But I think it very unlikely for this to happen for the aforementioned reason of volatility and the fact that BTC is by design deflationary. BTC's deflationary properties would choke off any such economic system that is based on this crypto currency. All in all, I am of the opionion that BTC is an interesting experiment and a case study in speculative behaviour. The difference compared to former manias (see [1] for historic examples) is that in BTC the process plays itself out at an extremely accelarated pace. Maybe this is even what the creator(s) intended. Maybe they created a purely electronic ecosystem of speculative behaviour to be able to study and better understand the phenomenon of financial bubbles. This would certainly explain the 'Satoshi' entity's non-interference. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions...
- jackgolding 13y ago
  This is the kind of response I wanted to invoke - that you for your insight! I guess the closest 'real' currency examples would be something like http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ZWD&to=USD&view=10Y http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ZWD&to=USD&view=10Y

Looking at the chart it doesn't seem as volatile as mainstream media leads us to believe.

imd23 13y ago

Some days are really volatile.

necubi 13y ago

It increases 50% in a week, and you don't consider that volatile?

JanezStupar 13y ago
You know, its the oscillations == volatility philosophy. Of course only should only look at daily graphs no older than two days. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460zigDailyztgSz...
- ramchip 13y ago
  I don't think philosophy has much to do here. Volatility is a financial term with a precise, mathematical definition.

jaibot 13y ago

The fuck? USD changes less than 2% a year. Within the last _six months_ BTC has been valued at anywhere from $65 to $321 USD (http://bitcoinity.org/markets http://bitcoinity.org/markets). It would be incredibly difficult to oversell how volatile BTC is - it's really, really, really, really fucking volatile.

this_user 13y ago

Your average currency pair moves less than 1% on almost all days. Moves above 1% are rare and days with moves of several percent are extremely rare and occur a couple of times a year at most. BTC, on the other hand, may be worth anything from 250 to 60 USD a day. That is the reason why BTC as a currency is of little use. You cannot do serious business with something like this unless you immediately hedge all of your exposure. In a larger organisation that would be impossible and, on the other hand, only means that someone else is holding the bag for the next crash. BTC is driven by little to no fundamental data. Its exchange rate is subject to pure mass psychology which is why it repeatedly goes through boom and bust cycles. This is not going to stop unless something like a real BTC economy of non-trivial size develops. But I think it very unlikely for this to happen for the aforementioned reason of volatility and the fact that BTC is by design deflationary. BTC's deflationary properties would choke off any such economic system that is based on this crypto currency. All in all, I am of the opionion that BTC is an interesting experiment and a case study in speculative behaviour. The difference compared to former manias (see [1] for historic examples) is that in BTC the process plays itself out at an extremely accelarated pace. Maybe this is even what the creator(s) intended. Maybe they created a purely electronic ecosystem of speculative behaviour to be able to study and better understand the phenomenon of financial bubbles. This would certainly explain the 'Satoshi' entity's non-interference. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions...

jackgolding 13y ago
This is the kind of response I wanted to invoke - that you for your insight! I guess the closest 'real' currency examples would be something like http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ZWD&to=USD&view=10Y http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ZWD&to=USD&view=10Y