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> In contrast, the more batteries Tesla produces the more the cost of lithium increases. This is true, but misleading. The cost of lithium is a vanishingly sma

> In contrast, the more batteries Tesla produces the more the cost of lithium increases. This is true, but misleading. The cost of lithium is a vanishingly small component of the price of the battery, a typical quote is between 1% and 0.1% of the production cost. Lithium is one of the most common elements in the earth's crust, and is plentiful enough in seawater that it cannot run out -- before it's cost is high enough to have any real effect in battery prices, it will be well worth extracting it from the seas. (In which there is enough supply for millions of years.) The rapid increase in demand caused by proliferation of lithium-ion batteries has spiked the price over the past decade, but that is simply because mining operations take years to spin up, so large changes in demand always lead to large-scale price action. This has not yet had anything but a negligible effect on battery prices, and it will not have one in the future. I do not understand the current meme of trying to paint all economic issues as resource-limited. That's just not how the world works.

bsdetector 13y ago
Lithium is everywhere, but the cost to extract from seawater and such is enormous since it is very low concentration. Efficient production is limited to naturally occurring concentrations. What I've read is lithium being closer to 2-3% of the total cost of the battery. With increased demand and limited production this could increase. Batteries are not falling in cost as predicted: "Though the projected prices are lower than current prices, they fall substantially short of the expectations which were perpetuated, notably, by Tesla CEO Elon Musk." Tesla is buying 75% of all cylindrical li-ion batteries and to reach even 1% of global marketshare they'll need 30x more. "Cell supply is crippling Tesla’s ambitious effort to expand its global reach." “One of the bigger challenges for us is going to be lithium-ion cell production,” Mr. Musk said at Teslive. “We need a lot of batteries.” Whatever the merits of fuel cells, there's no way batteries won't be a limiting growth factor for battery powered vehicles.

bsdetector 13y ago

Lithium is everywhere, but the cost to extract from seawater and such is enormous since it is very low concentration. Efficient production is limited to naturally occurring concentrations. What I've read is lithium being closer to 2-3% of the total cost of the battery. With increased demand and limited production this could increase. Batteries are not falling in cost as predicted: "Though the projected prices are lower than current prices, they fall substantially short of the expectations which were perpetuated, notably, by Tesla CEO Elon Musk." Tesla is buying 75% of all cylindrical li-ion batteries and to reach even 1% of global marketshare they'll need 30x more. "Cell supply is crippling Tesla’s ambitious effort to expand its global reach." “One of the bigger challenges for us is going to be lithium-ion cell production,” Mr. Musk said at Teslive. “We need a lot of batteries.” Whatever the merits of fuel cells, there's no way batteries won't be a limiting growth factor for battery powered vehicles.