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Toyota is supposedly coming out in 2015 with production cars with fuel cells costing a bit more than what a Tesla battery does, but the more they produce the le

Toyota is supposedly coming out in 2015 with production cars with fuel cells costing a bit more than what a Tesla battery does, but the more they produce the less costly they are. In contrast, the more batteries Tesla produces the more the cost of lithium increases. It seems like an incredible proposition that Tesla will expand fast enough to shut out fuel cells before they get established.

r00fus 13y ago
Toyota (and others) have been touting fuel cells for well over a decade. I'm not holding my breath - fuel cells are as sustainable and non-oil as flex-fuel (read: vaporware). Musk makes some very unrefutable points here deriding fuel cells, and Ive had that opinion long before people were listening to Musk: http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/25/elon-musk-munchen-fuel-cell-bullshit/ http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/25/elon-musk-munchen-fuel-c...
- bsdetector 13y ago
  > Toyota (and others) have been touting fuel cells for well over a decade. The cost of fuel cells has decreased to 5% of what it was then, and at least three manufacturers are coming out with limited production fuel cells cars. Just because it took 50 years to get ready doesn't mean it isn't ready. Musk's point is basically that the energy density of fuel cells is worse than batteries. That's true, but they can be refueled instead of mechanically swapped. He says the current total cost of the system is higher than batteries. That's true, but Toyota is halving the cost every 5 years as they ramp up production, where battery cost is falling maybe 10% in that time.
Tuna-Fish 13y ago
> In contrast, the more batteries Tesla produces the more the cost of lithium increases. This is true, but misleading. The cost of lithium is a vanishingly small component of the price of the battery, a typical quote is between 1% and 0.1% of the production cost. Lithium is one of the most common elements in the earth's crust, and is plentiful enough in seawater that it cannot run out -- before it's cost is high enough to have any real effect in battery prices, it will be well worth extracting it from the seas. (In which there is enough supply for millions of years.) The rapid increase in demand caused by proliferation of lithium-ion batteries has spiked the price over the past decade, but that is simply because mining operations take years to spin up, so large changes in demand always lead to large-scale price action. This has not yet had anything but a negligible effect on battery prices, and it will not have one in the future. I do not understand the current meme of trying to paint all economic issues as resource-limited. That's just not how the world works.
- bsdetector 13y ago
  Lithium is everywhere, but the cost to extract from seawater and such is enormous since it is very low concentration. Efficient production is limited to naturally occurring concentrations. What I've read is lithium being closer to 2-3% of the total cost of the battery. With increased demand and limited production this could increase. Batteries are not falling in cost as predicted: "Though the projected prices are lower than current prices, they fall substantially short of the expectations which were perpetuated, notably, by Tesla CEO Elon Musk." Tesla is buying 75% of all cylindrical li-ion batteries and to reach even 1% of global marketshare they'll need 30x more. "Cell supply is crippling Tesla’s ambitious effort to expand its global reach." “One of the bigger challenges for us is going to be lithium-ion cell production,” Mr. Musk said at Teslive. “We need a lot of batteries.” Whatever the merits of fuel cells, there's no way batteries won't be a limiting growth factor for battery powered vehicles.

r00fus 13y ago

Toyota (and others) have been touting fuel cells for well over a decade. I'm not holding my breath - fuel cells are as sustainable and non-oil as flex-fuel (read: vaporware). Musk makes some very unrefutable points here deriding fuel cells, and Ive had that opinion long before people were listening to Musk: http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/25/elon-musk-munchen-fuel-cell-bullshit/ http://cleantechnica.com/2013/10/25/elon-musk-munchen-fuel-c...

bsdetector 13y ago
> Toyota (and others) have been touting fuel cells for well over a decade. The cost of fuel cells has decreased to 5% of what it was then, and at least three manufacturers are coming out with limited production fuel cells cars. Just because it took 50 years to get ready doesn't mean it isn't ready. Musk's point is basically that the energy density of fuel cells is worse than batteries. That's true, but they can be refueled instead of mechanically swapped. He says the current total cost of the system is higher than batteries. That's true, but Toyota is halving the cost every 5 years as they ramp up production, where battery cost is falling maybe 10% in that time.

Tuna-Fish 13y ago

> In contrast, the more batteries Tesla produces the more the cost of lithium increases. This is true, but misleading. The cost of lithium is a vanishingly small component of the price of the battery, a typical quote is between 1% and 0.1% of the production cost. Lithium is one of the most common elements in the earth's crust, and is plentiful enough in seawater that it cannot run out -- before it's cost is high enough to have any real effect in battery prices, it will be well worth extracting it from the seas. (In which there is enough supply for millions of years.) The rapid increase in demand caused by proliferation of lithium-ion batteries has spiked the price over the past decade, but that is simply because mining operations take years to spin up, so large changes in demand always lead to large-scale price action. This has not yet had anything but a negligible effect on battery prices, and it will not have one in the future. I do not understand the current meme of trying to paint all economic issues as resource-limited. That's just not how the world works.

bsdetector 13y ago
Lithium is everywhere, but the cost to extract from seawater and such is enormous since it is very low concentration. Efficient production is limited to naturally occurring concentrations. What I've read is lithium being closer to 2-3% of the total cost of the battery. With increased demand and limited production this could increase. Batteries are not falling in cost as predicted: "Though the projected prices are lower than current prices, they fall substantially short of the expectations which were perpetuated, notably, by Tesla CEO Elon Musk." Tesla is buying 75% of all cylindrical li-ion batteries and to reach even 1% of global marketshare they'll need 30x more. "Cell supply is crippling Tesla’s ambitious effort to expand its global reach." “One of the bigger challenges for us is going to be lithium-ion cell production,” Mr. Musk said at Teslive. “We need a lot of batteries.” Whatever the merits of fuel cells, there's no way batteries won't be a limiting growth factor for battery powered vehicles.