One of the functions of the prior in Bayesian analysis is to incorporate this "gut feel" into your calculations. Given that you have a strong prior belief and w

One of the functions of the prior in Bayesian analysis is to incorporate this "gut feel" into your calculations. Given that you have a strong prior belief and weak data (ie not much data) your belief will strongly influence the posterior. As you collect more data your belief will be increasingly overridden by the reality.