The fundamental problem with economics is physics envy. Its nickname is the dismal science. The goal of economics has been the predictive power of the natural

The fundamental problem with economics is physics envy. Its nickname is the dismal science. The goal of economics has been the predictive power of the natural sciences. Well it aint going to happen. First, it is very difficult to run repeatable experiments. You cant have a double blind test to see if HSA's are better than single payer insurance. Friedman looked at the two and concluded that HSA's were better. I looked at his article and my experience with an HSA and concluded the opposite. Second, it appears to me that economics has a lot more in common with chaos theory than Newtonian physics. There are so many variables that it is probably impossible to determine what the initial conditions are. Third, economics is not rational. It has way more in common with psychology and politics than it does with physics, even if money is a nice quantum measurement. So what's to be done. Look at other attempts and see what works and what doesnt, England and Canada for example. Be conservative. Even though out system is a train wreak, transform it, dont throw it completely away. Make a series of transformations. Assume people are going to game the system in ways that you dont anticipate and make adjustments along the way. It is impossible to design a perfect system; dont even bother to try. Throw away anything that doesnt work.