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It's not unreasonable to expect that the last two digits of the voting counts should be distributed uniformly. Given that we also know that the wiring in human

by earl 17y ago

It's not unreasonable to expect that the last two digits of the voting counts should be distributed uniformly. Given that we also know that the wiring in human brains keeps us from properly sampling a uniform distribution by hand, the article employed a simple strategy of looking at the last two digits, assuming they were drawn from a uniform distribution, and asking if that were so, what is the probability that this would be our draw? You gave no reason to be skeptical, and simply illustrated your lack of familiarity with basic tools of probability. Funny that you would below speak of a "stunning example [...] of mathematical ignorance." If you wanted to substantively contribute to the discussion, perhaps you should try explaining why this was an invalid test instead of just labeling the authors as "numerology detectives?"

bilbo0s 17y ago
To be fair. It should be noted that US and UK elections have far larger variances than the elections in Iran. I suspect it is because incumbent politicians are allowed to engage in 're-districting'. I would need more data to make a definitive statement on the 'why'. In my view though, when Republicans carve out new districts in Mississippi and Louisiana, and when Democrats carve out new districts in Chicago, it is a form of election tampering. A very effective form of election tampering. Only the evidence of having tampered with the elections via re-districting shows up via Benford's law. Again, that part is just a theory. The explanation could be as simple as tamperers stuffing ballot boxes in the US as well.
kvh 17y ago
I think his point is that if a hundred such political scientists used a hundred different methods of evaluating election results, one of them would be guaranteed to find evidence of fraud. the other 99 would not report there results, not having found anything exciting. im not convinced there ARE that many tests you could perform, but the general point is interesting...

by earl 17y ago

bilbo0s 17y ago

To be fair. It should be noted that US and UK elections have far larger variances than the elections in Iran. I suspect it is because incumbent politicians are allowed to engage in 're-districting'. I would need more data to make a definitive statement on the 'why'. In my view though, when Republicans carve out new districts in Mississippi and Louisiana, and when Democrats carve out new districts in Chicago, it is a form of election tampering. A very effective form of election tampering. Only the evidence of having tampered with the elections via re-districting shows up via Benford's law. Again, that part is just a theory. The explanation could be as simple as tamperers stuffing ballot boxes in the US as well.

kvh 17y ago

I think his point is that if a hundred such political scientists used a hundred different methods of evaluating election results, one of them would be guaranteed to find evidence of fraud. the other 99 would not report there results, not having found anything exciting. im not convinced there ARE that many tests you could perform, but the general point is interesting...