5 ms·

I'll suggest a simpler framework for valuing Snapchat: probability of becoming another Facebook. If you think it has a 5% chance, then it should be valued at a

by johnrob 13y ago

I'll suggest a simpler framework for valuing Snapchat: probability of becoming another Facebook. If you think it has a 5% chance, then it should be valued at around 5 billion (relative to Facebook's 100 billion).

yoloswag 13y ago
I think it has a negative chance of becoming the next FB.
- jonny_eh 13y ago
  Does that mean FB has a chance of becoming the next Snapchat? Now THAT doesn't seem too likely.
TrainedMonkey 13y ago
I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. Your strategy has merit, but simply making another Facebook is not going to work now (It would have back in Myspace days). Now there is not an untapped market of people - almost everyone has things vested in social media companies. 1. Companies need either to do better then Facebook (Once again Google tried. Do not get me wrong, there is a fair chance that eventually Google+ will prevail, but very few projects have full might of Google paving their success.) 2. Or have different punchline than Facebook does to attract users (This is what Snapchat did). *typoed
- ramirez60 13y ago
  Isn't the argument about instagram's valuation pretty much solely based on it's potential for usurping facebook? There is no true social network born on mobile, and although facebook might win, I'm not sure that it's "never" going to happen
- georgemcbay 13y ago
  I agree. For better or for worse Facebook is the World of Warcraft of general purpose social networks, anything trying to go head to head with it will lose. It'll probably die off eventually but what replaces it will probably look nothing like it and will exist in a much different climate.
  - wrongc0ntinent 13y ago
    I'm betting on Orkut.
- jrs99 13y ago
  i feel that there is a 100% guarantee that there will be another facebook.
  - TrainedMonkey 13y ago
    I think it is unlikely that there will be another Facebook. Will there be a big social media website if Facebook dies? Probably yes, and in the near future it will likely be Google+. So if there was no Facebook would another Facebook clone take it's place? Intuitive answer is yes, until you start thinking. How did Facebook got so big? It was best product on the market. So now Facebook is dead, what happened to Facebook? Is there a reason it died, if Facebook could not survive, how will it clones will not only survive, but thrive? So here I would like to make a small prediction. The only way there will be another Facebook, if someone would make something better. Something which will either do things that Facebook does better - and hence kill it off, or something that will open entire new market. TL:DR If you want to get big you can't be another Facebook: you either must be different or better.
    - vidarh 13y ago
      Facebook is the latest in a long range of "clones". It's not the first social media website of its kind, nor the 5th. Many have enjoyed temporary success in this market only to get crushed by some small misstep or other, or simply because something slightly better came along. How many here remember sixdegrees.com? (1996) That's the first social networking site I remember signing up to... Of course you must be "different", but the difference between each successive evolutionary step from Six Degrees to Facebook has been tiny. While it is getting harder as the size of the successive networks have gotten bigger (SixDegrees reached a low number of million users), because of the network effects, it's not so much about features as about finding a way of building the network to a tipping point, and social networks are incredibly fickle and subsets can migrate to new services because they are not the dominant network.
      - ctdonath 13y ago
        This. There is a definite finite life cycle of social sites. Would do investors well to study the rise, domination, fall, and practical disappearance of such sites. BBSs, usenet, Compuserve, AOL (freaking bought Time-Warner!), MySpace, many others - all out to take over the world at one time, all legitimately worth vast sums at their peak, all now little more than rotting corpses. Know when to invest, know when to cash out, know when to stay away.
- VladRussian2 13y ago
  >I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. all this still doesn't make it "cool" with 1B of teenagers (don't know what does - if i knew i would probably not be wasting time here :), and 1B a new Facebook would make.
- erichocean 13y ago
  I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ I disagree and agree. I agree there will not be another Facebook. I disagree, because Facebook is not the end of the line for social networks, just like Altavista and Inktomi were not the end of the line for search engines. No one in the social network space has yet hit the quality Google hit with search. I fully agree that once that place is hit, it will be very, very difficult to dislodge whoever does it.
antr 13y ago
Electronics/handset manufacturers have a 95% chance of becoming the next Apple and given that their execution/marketing/technology/etc is 5% behind/off doesn't value them at $450bn, i.e. the market doesn't expand with new players, and FBs network effect is too large to ignore.

by johnrob 13y ago

yoloswag 13y ago

I think it has a negative chance of becoming the next FB.

jonny_eh 13y ago
Does that mean FB has a chance of becoming the next Snapchat? Now THAT doesn't seem too likely.

TrainedMonkey 13y ago

I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. Your strategy has merit, but simply making another Facebook is not going to work now (It would have back in Myspace days). Now there is not an untapped market of people - almost everyone has things vested in social media companies. 1. Companies need either to do better then Facebook (Once again Google tried. Do not get me wrong, there is a fair chance that eventually Google+ will prevail, but very few projects have full might of Google paving their success.) 2. Or have different punchline than Facebook does to attract users (This is what Snapchat did). *typoed

ramirez60 13y ago
Isn't the argument about instagram's valuation pretty much solely based on it's potential for usurping facebook? There is no true social network born on mobile, and although facebook might win, I'm not sure that it's "never" going to happen
georgemcbay 13y ago
I agree. For better or for worse Facebook is the World of Warcraft of general purpose social networks, anything trying to go head to head with it will lose. It'll probably die off eventually but what replaces it will probably look nothing like it and will exist in a much different climate.
- wrongc0ntinent 13y ago
  I'm betting on Orkut.
jrs99 13y ago
i feel that there is a 100% guarantee that there will be another facebook.
- TrainedMonkey 13y ago
  I think it is unlikely that there will be another Facebook. Will there be a big social media website if Facebook dies? Probably yes, and in the near future it will likely be Google+. So if there was no Facebook would another Facebook clone take it's place? Intuitive answer is yes, until you start thinking. How did Facebook got so big? It was best product on the market. So now Facebook is dead, what happened to Facebook? Is there a reason it died, if Facebook could not survive, how will it clones will not only survive, but thrive? So here I would like to make a small prediction. The only way there will be another Facebook, if someone would make something better. Something which will either do things that Facebook does better - and hence kill it off, or something that will open entire new market. TL:DR If you want to get big you can't be another Facebook: you either must be different or better.
  - vidarh 13y ago
    Facebook is the latest in a long range of "clones". It's not the first social media website of its kind, nor the 5th. Many have enjoyed temporary success in this market only to get crushed by some small misstep or other, or simply because something slightly better came along. How many here remember sixdegrees.com? (1996) That's the first social networking site I remember signing up to... Of course you must be "different", but the difference between each successive evolutionary step from Six Degrees to Facebook has been tiny. While it is getting harder as the size of the successive networks have gotten bigger (SixDegrees reached a low number of million users), because of the network effects, it's not so much about features as about finding a way of building the network to a tipping point, and social networks are incredibly fickle and subsets can migrate to new services because they are not the dominant network.
    - ctdonath 13y ago
      This. There is a definite finite life cycle of social sites. Would do investors well to study the rise, domination, fall, and practical disappearance of such sites. BBSs, usenet, Compuserve, AOL (freaking bought Time-Warner!), MySpace, many others - all out to take over the world at one time, all legitimately worth vast sums at their peak, all now little more than rotting corpses. Know when to invest, know when to cash out, know when to stay away.
VladRussian2 13y ago
>I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ - billions of dollars, millions of man hours by brilliant engineers, crazy bundling strategies by Google. Is Google+ another Facebook yet? Nope, not yet, maybe not ever. all this still doesn't make it "cool" with 1B of teenagers (don't know what does - if i knew i would probably not be wasting time here :), and 1B a new Facebook would make.
erichocean 13y ago
I think there is literally 0 chance for another Facebook. Google tried with Google+ I disagree and agree. I agree there will not be another Facebook. I disagree, because Facebook is not the end of the line for social networks, just like Altavista and Inktomi were not the end of the line for search engines. No one in the social network space has yet hit the quality Google hit with search. I fully agree that once that place is hit, it will be very, very difficult to dislodge whoever does it.

antr 13y ago

Electronics/handset manufacturers have a 95% chance of becoming the next Apple and given that their execution/marketing/technology/etc is 5% behind/off doesn't value them at $450bn, i.e. the market doesn't expand with new players, and FBs network effect is too large to ignore.