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That depends on if there's any more massive paradigm shifts, and if those shifts are created by new players or not. My guess is that, due to Apple and Google's

That depends on if there's any more massive paradigm shifts, and if those shifts are created by new players or not. My guess is that, due to Apple and Google's expertise in touch screen and motion capture software, you won't see any new players coming out of the woodwork with a new phone everybody wants. That said, the crowdsourcing of Firefox and Ubuntu phones could potentially disrupt things a little longer come 2014.

jonknee 13y ago
> My guess is that, due to Apple and Google's expertise in touch screen and motion capture software, you won't see any new players coming out of the woodwork with a new phone everybody wants. What does that have to do with anything? Samsung is the largest smartphone maker and you didn't even mention them. Xiaomi is likely to be a huge force in the next couple years. I'm sure there will be more.
- objclxt 13y ago
  Samsung primarily make phones which run Google software, and unless Samsung want to do an Amazon and ditch the Google Play Services infrastructure for all intents and purposes they are Google phones. Samsung sells lots of phones: how many of those phones are running Tizen (né Bada)? I think the point the OP was trying to make is that it's highly unlikely we'll see a company collapse to the extent that RIM/BlackBerry did unless there's a major paradigm shift in mobile technology. Are Xiaomi going to be driving that? I'm not sure.
  - tokenizer 13y ago
    Exactly. I don't see current companies (including Samsung and Xiaomi) making enough of an impact to dethrone Apple or Google from their places unless one of these smaller companies can literally rival the touchscreen shift in market disruption.
  - jonknee 13y ago
    > for all intents and purposes they are Google phones ... Except in profits.
twistedpair 13y ago
Shift happens.
mseebach 13y ago
There are plenty of hardware players in the Android space. Samsung is ahead, it seems, but the last two Nexus devices are LG, and we probably haven't seen the full extends of what Google will do with Motorola yet. At the bottom end of the market, China is overflowing with dirt-cheap Android devices. In the software (App-store) space, Amazon is pretty aggressive about taking on Google. I can't say that I've heard of any of them, but Wikipedia list another dozen live third-party Android app-stores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_software_distribution_platforms#Third-party_platforms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_software_distrib... It's hard to predict where the iOS ecosystem is going. It's definitely got momentum, but controlled, mono-culture ecosystems are vulnerable and iOS devices are definitely fashion-devices with all the fickleness that comes with that territory.
sirkneeland 13y ago
"you won't see any new players coming out of the woodwork with a new phone everybody wants" Exactly. You WILL see new players coming out of the woordwork with a new, post-phone device everybody wants. I'm not claiming I know what it is. But its emergence is a certainty.

jonknee 13y ago

> My guess is that, due to Apple and Google's expertise in touch screen and motion capture software, you won't see any new players coming out of the woodwork with a new phone everybody wants. What does that have to do with anything? Samsung is the largest smartphone maker and you didn't even mention them. Xiaomi is likely to be a huge force in the next couple years. I'm sure there will be more.

objclxt 13y ago
Samsung primarily make phones which run Google software, and unless Samsung want to do an Amazon and ditch the Google Play Services infrastructure for all intents and purposes they are Google phones. Samsung sells lots of phones: how many of those phones are running Tizen (né Bada)? I think the point the OP was trying to make is that it's highly unlikely we'll see a company collapse to the extent that RIM/BlackBerry did unless there's a major paradigm shift in mobile technology. Are Xiaomi going to be driving that? I'm not sure.
- tokenizer 13y ago
  Exactly. I don't see current companies (including Samsung and Xiaomi) making enough of an impact to dethrone Apple or Google from their places unless one of these smaller companies can literally rival the touchscreen shift in market disruption.
- jonknee 13y ago
  > for all intents and purposes they are Google phones ... Except in profits.

twistedpair 13y ago

Shift happens.

mseebach 13y ago

There are plenty of hardware players in the Android space. Samsung is ahead, it seems, but the last two Nexus devices are LG, and we probably haven't seen the full extends of what Google will do with Motorola yet. At the bottom end of the market, China is overflowing with dirt-cheap Android devices. In the software (App-store) space, Amazon is pretty aggressive about taking on Google. I can't say that I've heard of any of them, but Wikipedia list another dozen live third-party Android app-stores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_software_distribution_platforms#Third-party_platforms http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_software_distrib... It's hard to predict where the iOS ecosystem is going. It's definitely got momentum, but controlled, mono-culture ecosystems are vulnerable and iOS devices are definitely fashion-devices with all the fickleness that comes with that territory.

sirkneeland 13y ago

"you won't see any new players coming out of the woodwork with a new phone everybody wants" Exactly. You WILL see new players coming out of the woordwork with a new, post-phone device everybody wants. I'm not claiming I know what it is. But its emergence is a certainty.