5 ms·

There are at least two massive fallacies embedded in this quote (and afaict in the larger essay, though I did not read the whole thing): - Due to better modern

by blahedo 13y ago

There are at least two massive fallacies embedded in this quote (and afaict in the larger essay, though I did not read the whole thing): - Due to better modern reporting (and the 24h news cycle), despite generally lower rates of crimes and various other bad stuff, we feel like their rates are higher now, so we get all nostalgic for the 1950s. - More importantly, 1950 was a good time for certain kinds of people and not so much for others. Within the US, internet or no, 1950 is not a great time to travel to if you are LGBT, disabled, female, non-Christian, or ill with any of a variety of chronic conditions, and it's especially shitty if you are black (or, to a lesser extent, of another minority). Outside the US, Europe and Japan were still basically starving from post-war deprivation, the Soviet bloc was hitting the worst parts of Stalinism, China was approaching something like a thousand-year low in terms of civilisation, and most of the rest of the world were moribund colonies of the dying European empires. If you're a middle-class able-bodied white straight Christian (preferably Protestant) man in the US, though, sure, 1950 sounds super.

scarmig 13y ago
So what you're saying is that most people who valorize the 1950's are assuming they'll be Don Draper and not some nameless black daughter with no economic or educational prospects whose dad was just lynched?
- yummyfajitas 13y ago
  I think the people who valorize the 60's should actually listen to Don Draper. From some 5'th season episode, roughly paraphrased (working from memory): Roger Sterling: "Buying a Jaguar is how you know you've arrived." Don Draper: "I grew up on a farm. Indoor plumbing is how I know I've arrived."
pdonis 13y ago
despite generally lower rates of crimes and various other bad stuff You have to be careful with statistics. One of the thought experiments posed later in that same Moldbug post is this: how much of the Earth's inhabited area is safe for a person to wander about at night, alone? And how much was in 1950? His conclusion is that much more of the Earth's inhabited area (in particular, large parts of many cities--Detroit is his example) is unsafe now vs. in 1950. Crime rate statistics don't usually get broken down to that level of detail, so you might not see the pattern there. (Although in other posts Moldbug also quotes the statistic that the crime rate in Britain today is something like 50 times higher than it was in the Victorian era.)
- bad_user 13y ago
  Personally, I like to think of real facts, not thought experiments. In terms of global poverty, disease, hunger, active wars, inequality, the year 2012 is the best year recorded in human history [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] What happens with the US (and the UK) is a global redistribution of wealth. The US economy is basically stagnating, but developing countries are booming. [1] http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVCALNET/Resources/Global_Poverty_Update_2012_02-29-12.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVCALNET/Resources/Gl... [2] http://cid.bcrp.gob.pe/biblio/Papers/NBER/2009/Octubre/w15433.pdf http://cid.bcrp.gob.pe/biblio/Papers/NBER/2009/Octubre/w1543... [3] http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/stat... [4] http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/epidemiology/2012/gr2012/20121120_UNAIDS_Global_Report_2012_en.pdf http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/document... [5] http://www.who.int/malaria/world_malaria_report_2011/WMR2011_chapter7.pdf http://www.who.int/malaria/world_malaria_report_2011/WMR2011... [6] http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@epidemiologysurveilance/documents/document/acspc-027766.pdf http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@epidemiologysurvei...
- vacri 13y ago
  Although in other posts Moldbug also quotes the statistic that the crime rate in Britain today is something like 50 times higher than it was in the Victorian era And yet just before the Victorian era, crime was so bad that people were sent to literally the other side of the earth for crimes as minor as stealing a pair of scissors. It would also suggest that the murder rate would have been ridiculously low - in modern times, it's 1.2/100k. In 1831, the start of the era, that would mean that the UK had a mere 3 murders of its 13 million people for the entire year. Difficult to believe. In 1900, the end of the era, it would still be less than 10 for the 30-odd million. According to this article [1], homicide rates weren't too far from what they are today, neatly bracketing the modern rate (which has the advantage of better reporting; historical homicides were likely higher) A 50-fold reduction in crime is astounding, enough so that it sounds like baloney. Particularly for a country famous for shipping its criminals around the world during the 'low crime' period. [1] http://www.historytoday.com/clive-emsley/victorian-crime http://www.historytoday.com/clive-emsley/victorian-crime
philwelch 13y ago
It wasn't even until the 1970's that it was considered illegal in most states to rape your own wife.

by blahedo 13y ago

scarmig 13y ago

So what you're saying is that most people who valorize the 1950's are assuming they'll be Don Draper and not some nameless black daughter with no economic or educational prospects whose dad was just lynched?

yummyfajitas 13y ago
I think the people who valorize the 60's should actually listen to Don Draper. From some 5'th season episode, roughly paraphrased (working from memory): Roger Sterling: "Buying a Jaguar is how you know you've arrived." Don Draper: "I grew up on a farm. Indoor plumbing is how I know I've arrived."

pdonis 13y ago

despite generally lower rates of crimes and various other bad stuff You have to be careful with statistics. One of the thought experiments posed later in that same Moldbug post is this: how much of the Earth's inhabited area is safe for a person to wander about at night, alone? And how much was in 1950? His conclusion is that much more of the Earth's inhabited area (in particular, large parts of many cities--Detroit is his example) is unsafe now vs. in 1950. Crime rate statistics don't usually get broken down to that level of detail, so you might not see the pattern there. (Although in other posts Moldbug also quotes the statistic that the crime rate in Britain today is something like 50 times higher than it was in the Victorian era.)

bad_user 13y ago
Personally, I like to think of real facts, not thought experiments. In terms of global poverty, disease, hunger, active wars, inequality, the year 2012 is the best year recorded in human history [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] What happens with the US (and the UK) is a global redistribution of wealth. The US economy is basically stagnating, but developing countries are booming. [1] http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVCALNET/Resources/Global_Poverty_Update_2012_02-29-12.pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVCALNET/Resources/Gl... [2] http://cid.bcrp.gob.pe/biblio/Papers/NBER/2009/Octubre/w15433.pdf http://cid.bcrp.gob.pe/biblio/Papers/NBER/2009/Octubre/w1543... [3] http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/stat... [4] http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/epidemiology/2012/gr2012/20121120_UNAIDS_Global_Report_2012_en.pdf http://www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/document... [5] http://www.who.int/malaria/world_malaria_report_2011/WMR2011_chapter7.pdf http://www.who.int/malaria/world_malaria_report_2011/WMR2011... [6] http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@epidemiologysurveilance/documents/document/acspc-027766.pdf http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@epidemiologysurvei...
vacri 13y ago
Although in other posts Moldbug also quotes the statistic that the crime rate in Britain today is something like 50 times higher than it was in the Victorian era And yet just before the Victorian era, crime was so bad that people were sent to literally the other side of the earth for crimes as minor as stealing a pair of scissors. It would also suggest that the murder rate would have been ridiculously low - in modern times, it's 1.2/100k. In 1831, the start of the era, that would mean that the UK had a mere 3 murders of its 13 million people for the entire year. Difficult to believe. In 1900, the end of the era, it would still be less than 10 for the 30-odd million. According to this article [1], homicide rates weren't too far from what they are today, neatly bracketing the modern rate (which has the advantage of better reporting; historical homicides were likely higher) A 50-fold reduction in crime is astounding, enough so that it sounds like baloney. Particularly for a country famous for shipping its criminals around the world during the 'low crime' period. [1] http://www.historytoday.com/clive-emsley/victorian-crime http://www.historytoday.com/clive-emsley/victorian-crime

philwelch 13y ago

It wasn't even until the 1970's that it was considered illegal in most states to rape your own wife.