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The prices of acquisitions, despite their possible justifications, is becoming a bubble because of all the recent revelations about the value of ("big") data, a
by mangeletti 13y ago
The prices of acquisitions, despite their possible justifications, is becoming a bubble because of all the recent revelations about the value of ("big") data, and of users' time spent online (i.e., a land-grab). Investors are learning that data and user acquisition (regardless of how much money is made per user) is really valuable, but it's hard to value both, since the monetization of both has proven inconsistent and, in some cases. For instance, Facebook has a lot of users and even more data. Their current valuation in the open market puts their market capitalization at 94 times what they currently earn (net profit) in a quarter. That's about 4 times what is "normal" for a popular investment, and about 7 times more than Apple (which is currently the most valuable company on the planet).
Now, the bubble doesn't have to burst. Assuming companies like EMC, IBM, and the hundreds of smaller companies with data analysis offerings can come up with increasingly efficient and offerings that increase revenue per user/data-point. The best that most user/data-centric start-ups can currently get (without loads of capital) is affiliate commissions or "data-driven" ads (from Google, et al). This is rapidly changing, and if it can keep pace with the demands, there's no reason the current bubble can't turn into a profit center.
Another thing worth noting is that, while user/data-centric start-up valuations are (very much) on the high end, other, unrelated software and hardware/IaaS companies are thriving in sectors that aim at replacing human workers in various fields (ecommerce, marketing, accounting, medical [you name it], etc.) with machines. This is intrinsically valuable and cannot be described as a bubble any more than replacing manual gas pumps/attendants with automatic ones can. It's just the fruition of efficient ideas, coupled with readily available technology at prices that the SMB market can afford.
TL;DR
The bubble in user/data-centric start-up valuation doesn't reflect the rest of the technology sector, and user/data-centric start-ups are quickly learning how to turn the aforementioned into a profit.
- alphydan 13y ago>> 7 times more than Apple (which is currently the most valuable company on the planet). Something is missing in that sentence. The most "valuable publicly traded tech company"? Or is it another definition of valuable? or of company? At around 400bn it's less valuable than Saudi Aramco (with a value around $2 - $5 trillion USD, PetroChina (1Tn) or Pemex (also about 400bn!). http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/titman/2010/03/01/more-thoughts-on-the-value-of-saudi-aramco/ http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/titman/2010/03/01/more-thoug... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA1jwRD9tCuA http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA1jw... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5de6ef96-8b95-11db-a61f-0000779e2340.html#axzz2jcPMMnkj http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5de6ef96-8b95-11db-a61f-0000779e23...
- mangeletti 13y agoOops, I meant in the US, not the planet. Also, AAPL is at 467.25B.