4 ms·

While I have no idea what information investors are basing their decisions on, it's probably some evidence that Snapchat is starting to replace Facebook among s

by pg 13y ago

While I have no idea what information investors are basing their decisions on, it's probably some evidence that Snapchat is starting to replace Facebook among some bellwether set of users. That could be a reasonable bet, depending on what the evidence is. But I don't know what the evidence is, and without it there is no way I can estimate what Snapchat's valuation should be. (Hint: and neither can The Washington Post or any of you.)

joshmlewis 13y ago
My thought was exactly this. People are saying Snapchat is just another stupid overnight social app, but they are failing to see that this actually has some great potential. Facebooks problem is you publish things and they are there forever for anyone to see, but Snapchat is a little clever in the sense that you can publish events for 24 hours and then they disappear. Your friends are still in the know about what you're doing, and then it's gone. I would make a bet that there aren't a lot of significant friends of others that need to see something more than once or that go back looking for an event. This nicely fills the gap of sharing vs history.
mikeryan 13y ago
I'm torn on this, I didn't think Instagram was worth 1B until my 16 year old niece told me the only things she used was Twitter and Instagram. If you tell me Snapchat is what all the kids are using I'm going to give it some leeway - though I still think there's a lot of greater fool investing going on. My biggest concern with these services is the seemingly fickle nature of their audience. Even if they're able to turn the service into something profitable - how long can they maintain it?
- hangonhn 13y ago
  I actually use this strategy. Because I mentor high school students, I sometimes ask them what they use the most. Facebook is not on that list. Instagram and Tumblr for sure and maybe SnapChat. That's not to say that FB is out. Sometimes the best way to reach them is via FB messages. The good thing about teenagers is that: 1. they're trendy or try to be 2. have short attention span If you can get a teenager to understand and like your product, you have a good chance of going viral, popular, or whatever it is kids call it these days.
- taude 13y ago
  The trendy nature of these business is a negative on valuation in my book. Sure, it'll grow a bit. And then the next new thing will come along. It likely is really profitable for those investing early on and founders. As an employee at a company like this, I'd worry about all the hard-work having a pay-off four years down the road when options vest, etc...

by pg 13y ago

joshmlewis 13y ago

My thought was exactly this. People are saying Snapchat is just another stupid overnight social app, but they are failing to see that this actually has some great potential. Facebooks problem is you publish things and they are there forever for anyone to see, but Snapchat is a little clever in the sense that you can publish events for 24 hours and then they disappear. Your friends are still in the know about what you're doing, and then it's gone. I would make a bet that there aren't a lot of significant friends of others that need to see something more than once or that go back looking for an event. This nicely fills the gap of sharing vs history.

mikeryan 13y ago

I'm torn on this, I didn't think Instagram was worth 1B until my 16 year old niece told me the only things she used was Twitter and Instagram. If you tell me Snapchat is what all the kids are using I'm going to give it some leeway - though I still think there's a lot of greater fool investing going on. My biggest concern with these services is the seemingly fickle nature of their audience. Even if they're able to turn the service into something profitable - how long can they maintain it?

hangonhn 13y ago
I actually use this strategy. Because I mentor high school students, I sometimes ask them what they use the most. Facebook is not on that list. Instagram and Tumblr for sure and maybe SnapChat. That's not to say that FB is out. Sometimes the best way to reach them is via FB messages. The good thing about teenagers is that: 1. they're trendy or try to be 2. have short attention span If you can get a teenager to understand and like your product, you have a good chance of going viral, popular, or whatever it is kids call it these days.
taude 13y ago
The trendy nature of these business is a negative on valuation in my book. Sure, it'll grow a bit. And then the next new thing will come along. It likely is really profitable for those investing early on and founders. As an employee at a company like this, I'd worry about all the hard-work having a pay-off four years down the road when options vest, etc...