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I've said it before (and got moderated down). Silicon Valley now == Detroit 1975. The phrase "a theme park" pretty well sums it up. As in - this is the peak, an

by ojbyrne 17y ago

I've said it before (and got moderated down). Silicon Valley now == Detroit 1975. The phrase "a theme park" pretty well sums it up. As in - this is the peak, and it will take 30 years of decline before you realize it.

menloparkbum 17y ago
There is a theme park aspect to Silicon Valley but the Detroit analogy isn't a very good one. Plus, wasn't Digg in The City? The SF startups have traditionally been sillier and more prone to the party and gossip scene than the ones in the South Bay.
- rjurney 17y ago
  When I say SV, I mean the entire Bay Area. I should probably clarify that in future articles. Thanks for the feedback. As to the theme park comment - it really felt like Disney World to me. I don't mean that in a bad way - I love Disney, and would live at the Contemporary Hotel at Disney World Orlando if I could. In terms of a supportive environment for building startups, it really is like a theme park ride.
rjurney 17y ago
I think if you take a look, you'll find that the history of Silicon Valley goes back more than 100 years, and it has continued to boom despite short-term boom/bust cycles.
- davidw 17y ago
  Bingo! I would peg the gold rush as the real beginning of "the California mentality". It's interesting to compare and contrast California with Oregon, where I'm from. Oregon was settled by boring farmer types who set about creating schools and churches and gave dull names to everything[1]. That mentality is still there... people lead good, and often quiet, happy, modest, productive, lives, but there is nothing like the "big bet" startup mentality in the bay area. Even Portland, which has lots of bright tech folks, and isn't that far away from the bay area (flights are plentiful and relatively short) doesn't strike me as having much of a startup scene. And where I'm from, in Eugene... it always seemed to me that no one did much of anything outside of protesting for the cause du jour, despite having a reasonably large, and reasonably good university. Perhaps not in terms of companies/startups, but people are far more "doers" here in Padova than there, to say nothing of the bay area. [1] I would love to do research/find articles on surveys of place names. For instance, the Willamette valley is full of boring biblical/someone's daughter/back home names, but once you get to mining country in southern Oregon, you get more names like "Jumpoff Joe Creek" (look for it driving on I-5 north of Grants Pass). Even the geographical terms change: there are no 'gulches' around Eugene, but plenty in southern Oregon. I wonder about the significance of that.
  - defen 17y ago
    Don't forget Boring, Oregon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boring%2C_Oregon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boring%2C_Oregon
gojomo 17y ago
What are the factors that will lead Silicon Valley down a long, uncompetitive decline like Detroit? The big ones that got Detroit -- an entrenched oligopoly of giant organizations, adversarial and inflexible unionism, years of recourse to political favors rather than competitive adjustment -- don't seem to be in play in technology. California and the bay region have some governance issues, but those come and go. There is international competition, but unlike Detroit we will import workers, outsource activity, and lower wages if necessary to adapt.
pg 17y ago
What evidence do you have for believing that this is the peak? Or more precisely, for believing that things will decline from this point?
- ynniv 17y ago
  Just a feeling, but I see a lot of weak companies being over-funded. The more often this happens, and the less often that VC's get their 4x return, the harder it will be to get funding. I remember a chart from a recent VC internal presentation showing the net return on industry investment from the last year going in the red. Detroit was king, but in their success was greedy and stopped caring about the quality of the product. Other cultures sprang up that cared about the product, and the tides turned. People asked why their neighbors didn't "buy American" (instead of asking why Detroit didn't make good cars), but even grassroots protectionism won't save a rotten company. Those who think the Valley is following detroit see that personal computing is tired and products are in a race to the bottom. I remember when a PC cost as much as a car, and people bought them as business capital. Now we complain if a laptop costs more than a car payment, and expect web content and software to be "ad based" (aka free to those of us who ignore ads). There are still opportunities here, but not at the VC magnitude (unless you believe Facebook's valuation). The Valley needs to learn something new, maybe "green tech", pharmaceuticals, or robotics, if is going to continue its reign. It isn't guaranteed, and there are other cities that are familiar with these industries. The Internet currently has an English bias to give us a competitive advantage, but if Japan engineers better solar panels and makes them in China, it will be hard competition.
  - nostrademons 17y ago
    Robotics, mobile, and "green tech" are all pretty hot in the Valley. And I don't really see people who've stopped caring about the quality of the product and say "Buy Silicon Valley." So far, the Valley's proved itself fairly adept at reinventing itself with each wave of technology, much like Boston. That doesn't mean it won't decline like Detroit - a lot of random events can happen in the future. I just don't see a reason to believe it'll go either way...
- ojbyrne 17y ago

by ojbyrne 17y ago

menloparkbum 17y ago

There is a theme park aspect to Silicon Valley but the Detroit analogy isn't a very good one. Plus, wasn't Digg in The City? The SF startups have traditionally been sillier and more prone to the party and gossip scene than the ones in the South Bay.

rjurney 17y ago
When I say SV, I mean the entire Bay Area. I should probably clarify that in future articles. Thanks for the feedback. As to the theme park comment - it really felt like Disney World to me. I don't mean that in a bad way - I love Disney, and would live at the Contemporary Hotel at Disney World Orlando if I could. In terms of a supportive environment for building startups, it really is like a theme park ride.

rjurney 17y ago

I think if you take a look, you'll find that the history of Silicon Valley goes back more than 100 years, and it has continued to boom despite short-term boom/bust cycles.

davidw 17y ago
Bingo! I would peg the gold rush as the real beginning of "the California mentality". It's interesting to compare and contrast California with Oregon, where I'm from. Oregon was settled by boring farmer types who set about creating schools and churches and gave dull names to everything[1]. That mentality is still there... people lead good, and often quiet, happy, modest, productive, lives, but there is nothing like the "big bet" startup mentality in the bay area. Even Portland, which has lots of bright tech folks, and isn't that far away from the bay area (flights are plentiful and relatively short) doesn't strike me as having much of a startup scene. And where I'm from, in Eugene... it always seemed to me that no one did much of anything outside of protesting for the cause du jour, despite having a reasonably large, and reasonably good university. Perhaps not in terms of companies/startups, but people are far more "doers" here in Padova than there, to say nothing of the bay area. [1] I would love to do research/find articles on surveys of place names. For instance, the Willamette valley is full of boring biblical/someone's daughter/back home names, but once you get to mining country in southern Oregon, you get more names like "Jumpoff Joe Creek" (look for it driving on I-5 north of Grants Pass). Even the geographical terms change: there are no 'gulches' around Eugene, but plenty in southern Oregon. I wonder about the significance of that.
- defen 17y ago
  Don't forget Boring, Oregon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boring%2C_Oregon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boring%2C_Oregon

gojomo 17y ago

What are the factors that will lead Silicon Valley down a long, uncompetitive decline like Detroit? The big ones that got Detroit -- an entrenched oligopoly of giant organizations, adversarial and inflexible unionism, years of recourse to political favors rather than competitive adjustment -- don't seem to be in play in technology. California and the bay region have some governance issues, but those come and go. There is international competition, but unlike Detroit we will import workers, outsource activity, and lower wages if necessary to adapt.

pg 17y ago

What evidence do you have for believing that this is the peak? Or more precisely, for believing that things will decline from this point?

ynniv 17y ago
Just a feeling, but I see a lot of weak companies being over-funded. The more often this happens, and the less often that VC's get their 4x return, the harder it will be to get funding. I remember a chart from a recent VC internal presentation showing the net return on industry investment from the last year going in the red. Detroit was king, but in their success was greedy and stopped caring about the quality of the product. Other cultures sprang up that cared about the product, and the tides turned. People asked why their neighbors didn't "buy American" (instead of asking why Detroit didn't make good cars), but even grassroots protectionism won't save a rotten company. Those who think the Valley is following detroit see that personal computing is tired and products are in a race to the bottom. I remember when a PC cost as much as a car, and people bought them as business capital. Now we complain if a laptop costs more than a car payment, and expect web content and software to be "ad based" (aka free to those of us who ignore ads). There are still opportunities here, but not at the VC magnitude (unless you believe Facebook's valuation). The Valley needs to learn something new, maybe "green tech", pharmaceuticals, or robotics, if is going to continue its reign. It isn't guaranteed, and there are other cities that are familiar with these industries. The Internet currently has an English bias to give us a competitive advantage, but if Japan engineers better solar panels and makes them in China, it will be hard competition.
- nostrademons 17y ago
  Robotics, mobile, and "green tech" are all pretty hot in the Valley. And I don't really see people who've stopped caring about the quality of the product and say "Buy Silicon Valley." So far, the Valley's proved itself fairly adept at reinventing itself with each wave of technology, much like Boston. That doesn't mean it won't decline like Detroit - a lot of random events can happen in the future. I just don't see a reason to believe it'll go either way...
ojbyrne 17y ago