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Krugman’s Theory of Interstellar Trade
- mtdewcmu 13y agoYou would have to be extremely patient even for electromagnetic communication. A single round trip to the nearest star would take 8 years.
- rurounijones 13y agoTurn based games strategy games have a resurgence in popularity and become things passed down the family. "See this knight? My great-grandfather recruited it into this CIV V game 72 years ago. Now it is time for it to fulfil its destiny and crush the archer built by the Bob's great uncle"
- mtdewcmu 13y agoCorrespondence chess, maybe.
- eli_gottlieb 13y agoThe future is diplomacy through play-by-post RPGs over interstellar Usenet.
- mtdewcmu 13y agoI think the interstellar protocols would have to be redesigned around UDP, because a reliable protocol would have too many round-trips and would be intolerably slow.
- deletes 13y agoIt is possible to engage in constant communication even with a very long delay. Simply both start sending questions of a certain theme, and after the one-way time you can have a fluid conversation, albeit the theme of conversation will change very slowly.
- jl6 13y agoYou might wish to physically transport key material for a one-time-pad-based interstellar crypto system.
- Houshalter 13y agoCould you direct a signal of some kind in a way that only people in the direction you send it could receive it?
- mtdewcmu 13y agoI believe that's a laser. But you would have to make sure somehow that it wouldn't reflect off of any particles en route. Which would likely be impossible... unless the wavelength was very, very long, I think. Also, the laser would spread out, but it would still be mostly in one direction.
- arethuza 13y agoI seem to remember that the original cargo of the Out of Band II in A Fire Upon the Deep was part of a one time pad - the ship held data that had to be xor-ed with data being carried by other ships (presumably so they couldn't keep a copy and read all of the messages). Wasn't Pham also regarded as terribly naive for believing that public key encyrption would be secure? When they are discussing things in the bar scene where they first meet the skroderiders....
- ck2 13y agoWhy would such an advanced species "trade" ? They would just mine planets directly via robots. Hopefully if they were nice aliens they would only mine uninhabited, lifeless planets.
- mtdewcmu 13y agoWhy do people always assume that aliens would be smarter than us?
- jswhitten 13y agoBecause the timescale of the universe is much longer than the timescale of human civilization or intelligence. The odds of any aliens we meet being at the exact same level of development as humans (to within ten thousand years or so) despite having evolved independently on a planet billions of years old, are extremely small. In the vast majority of cases they will be millions of years more advanced or millions of years less. As chimps don't build starships, it follows that almost every interstellar civilization we find will be godlike compared to us. In other words, we are a newborn intelligent species, and newborns generally find that everyone around them is older.
- mtdewcmu 13y agoYou're assuming that being older implies having more capabilities. Civilizations like ours almost certainly reach limits, either in terms of resource limits, or in terms of fundamental limits on the kinds of things that can be engineered (or both). The fact we've never run into any alien tourists or explorers, despite thousands of years of record keeping and being able to search the earth for alien artifacts, and our own research into star travel support the idea that it's impossible.
- NhanH 13y agoNot all aliens, but generally we're only concerned with aliens that could potentially affect us. Since we can't travel that far away from our planet right now (and we know that there seems to be no life capable planet nearby - with a loose definition of "nearby"), any alien that we can meet right now would have to be quite a bit more advanced to us.
- jerrya 13y agoCustomer service stinks. I've been on hold for 12 parsecs.
- javert 13y agoThat's funny because the parsec is actually a unit of distance. :)
- crntaylor 13y agoThat's the joke - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millenium_Falcon#Depiction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millenium_Falcon#Depiction A reference to the Millenium Falcon completing the Kessel Run in "less than twelve parsecs"
- Scienz 13y agoRelativistic physics often measures the passage of time in units of distance, though I doubt Han spent ~39 years making that Kessel run.
- jerrya 13y agoRelativistic physics often measures the passage of time in units of distance The explanation or rationalization of this 36 year old joke explains that so does driving in Los Angeles.... How much longer till we get to Disneyland? Just another 10 miles honey. Regardless, I always preferred 'less than 12 parsecs' as a measurement of the maneuvering within a gravitational well.
- auggierose 13y agoFor some of the ramifications of interstellar trade, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_of_the_Galaxy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_of_the_Galaxy
- shmageggy 13y agoIf this sort of thing fascinates you as it does me, you might be interested in the latest Charles Stross book that features relatavistic finance as a major plot point. Here's a preview chapter: http://www.tor.com/stories/2013/06/neptunes-brood-excerpt http://www.tor.com/stories/2013/06/neptunes-brood-excerpt Mr. Krugman himself thinks it's "the best thing by far written on the subject to date" (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/the-theory-of-interstellar-finance/ http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/the-theory-of-in...)
- johnchristopher 13y agoIf it's anything like the Family Trade series of books then the economic or financial subject may only be used to colour the main plot and give a mood. I don't expect the author to actually be a "hard-economic" author like Stefan Baxter is a hard-science author.
- markild 13y agoThis book is the first thing I though of reading this. I don't know about the viability of the sort of economy Charles Stross uses in this book, but I found it refreshingly thought through. Might also be worth noting that he goes into some interesting concepts with regards to cryptocurrencies.
- gjm11 13y ago> Mr. Krugman himself thinks it's "the best thing by far written on the subject to date" I'm a big fan of Charles Stross, but it may be worth pointing out that Krugman goes on to say that this is partly because it's the only thing written on the subject to date. (In particular, he's distinguishing "interstellar finance" as in Neptune's Brood from "interstellar trade" as in his own earlier paper.)
- Houshalter 13y agoBiological things can be transmitted just as raw information through a radio broadcast or something. Just upload the genetic code. Same with most art. Even physical things, you could upload the data necessary to replicate them.
- kybernetikos 13y agoEven on our single planet, handcrafted goods command a premium.
- Houshalter 13y agoTrue but to aliens? With the massive cost and time delay (and possibly risk) of transportation? If it happens at all it's just for novelty/luxury.
- kybernetikos 13y agoNovelty and luxury are a huge part of our global economy, and as time progresses, I expect that to increase. Yes, it would be an enormous cost to have an original work of art created by an alien master artist shipped to your home / corporate headquarters, but it's the kind of thing that I think those wealthy enough will want, even in a world of 3d printing.
- vidarh 13y agoIn fact, high cost is a benefit in large parts of the luxury market, as part of the point is often to signal status, so presumably a lot of people will want it exactly to signal that they can afford to have an original instead of those pesky "fake" 3d prints.
- TeMPOraL 13y ago> Just upload the genetic code. Yes, though you'd still need to have a biological assembler from the original biosphere, for the genetic code is just a set of instructions for nanomachinery common on Earth, not a XYZ blueprint. Most of the information that form living creatures is embedded in the workings of replication machinery, not in the DNA itself. (see also GEB for more detailed discussion about where exactly the "information" lies in systems)
- alextingle 13y ago> maybe some lovely Picasso’s for GL581, or perhaps a couple of Caravaggio’s? Depressing to see even Scientific American's sub-editors failing to catch grocer's apostrophes.
- Tarang 13y agoDamnit how will I keep all my software up to date now! It's not too nice being several galactic rotations behind. Also my beryllium futures contract's electromagnetic time latency premium is too high!
- Scienz 13y agoHaven't had time to read the paper yet, but the blogger seems to miss the obvious. We could probably assume civilizations capable of interstellar trade would have advanced enough genetic engineering and biological 3D printing such that trading lifeforms and their by-products between planets wouldn't be required. Different planets, with different atmospheres, geologies and ecosystems, would lead to comparative advantages in production though, which is the primary incentive behind trade relations. However the net benefit of trading would be at least partially offset by the cost of transporting goods over such long distances. With low thrust, high efficiency engines attached to the cargo the cost could be low enough to make trading an economic benefit, but that would require even longer time periods between the production of a good and its being put to good use. Civilizations would have to plan ahead and estimate the supply and demand many years, centuries or millenia into the future. You could really have a lot of fun with this kind of analysis. Looking forward to reading the full paper later.
- gabemart 13y ago> Different planets, with different atmospheres, geologies and ecosystems, would lead to comparative advantages in production though, which is the primary incentive behind trade relations. Not just advantages - some organisms rely on extremely complex symbiotic relationships and environmental stimuli (e.g. fungi in the genus Morchella). Reproducing these conditions, even with advanced technology, could be extremely challenging or impossible, which could create enough demand to justify physical transportation of goods. (This is essentially the plot to the science fiction novel I'm writing.)
- userulluipeste 13y ago"Reproducing these conditions, even with advanced technology, could be extremely challenging or impossible, which could create enough demand to justify physical transportation of goods. (This is essentially the plot to the science fiction novel I'm writing.)" That was the main idea in Frank Herbert's Dune - "the spice". It's a good strategy to follow a tested winning idea, good luck with your writing!
- eli_gottlieb 13y ago
- dimitar 13y agoPlease read the paper itself, please. It is very funny, and the author rarely misses an opportunity to make a clever pun.
- userulluipeste 13y ago"The fact being that almost any cargo along these lines (made of the elements produced across the universe by stellar nucleosynthesis and supernovae) is going to be a) most likely available in any system already, b) definitely available for the taking from billions of unoccupied regions of space." Yet, for example in Australia (at least Tasmania) under British colonial period, raw materials such as wood for housing was imported from Carelia (through Britain), although local better materials (e.g. rooting-resistant Huon pine trees) could be found in abundance. Sometimes the logic is defied by other human behavioral factors, sometimes the simple economical reasoning does not tell the whole story, so I wouldn't be surprised if water will be traded. "A few billion years of natural selection and evolution on any given planet will produce an array of wonderful and useful lifeforms, that could be unique enough to be of interest elsewhere." Considering our history in messing up the natural habitats and ecosystems, and also considering that we ended up with restrictions on introducing living organisms in many places here on Earth, I'm also not surprised if stronger restriction will be set up for trading such things on even more separate environments such as planets. I see instead good prospects for interstellar tourism, with clients willing to travel vast distances just to see those living "Bunny rabbits and butterflies" in their natural environment.
- bladedtoys 13y agoIf it we were discussing a greater interstellar human civilization, (and let's face it, the idea of aliens is silly) there is one additional interesting problem: the time dilation colonist experience will mean they will be permanently behind the Earth by a number of years equal to the distance they travel. And their knowledge will be double that obsolescence. For example: they leave at the speed of light for a star 50 light years away. On Earth 50 years pass but no time passes for the colonist. So when they arrive they are technically where the earth was 50 years before. They set up shop and transmit their wonderful ideas and technology, which takes 50 more years to be received. Which means it's 100 years out of date. Meanwhile the Earth beams its ideas to the colonists. Even on they day the land, the colonist can tune into their favorite sitcom without missing an episode (because of course they were traveling side by side with those transmissions and the subsequent fifty years were following behind in a lovely tail of vapid entertainment). So the Earth's information is still quite useful to them. And this disparity in value can never be corrected. If the Earth moans about the uselessness of the colonist 100 year old ideas and sends suggestions, the colonist will have been listening to the Earth for 100 years anyway before they hear those suggestions and will already moved far beyond them. Yet still be 50 years behind. So a trade in ideas also seems unworkable.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- bane 13y agoHowever, a trade in ideas vs. resources might work if the Sol system ever became highly resource constrained. With the Sol system being permanently decades ahead of the colonies, a steady stream of resource haulers back would provide additional mass for Sol citizens to utilize, making it a fair trade in some circumstances. The problem arises when the trade becomes imbalanced or needs to stop, there's a lag time of decades to push out such an order.
- bladedtoys 13y agoYeah, they could just ship hydrogen back. They could also beam lasers at us although I image it would be awfully wide by the time it got here. Also, so as long is the energy to ship it is less than the energy to create it by fusion, it would be economical to ship elements heavier than iron. But that would mean annoyingly slow speeds. The really annoying thing is that by adding trillions of people to the universe, we apparently won't really improve the rate of idea creation. I really hope I'm missing something on this.
- eli_gottlieb 13y agoThe nastier issue isn't interstellar trade but interstellar conquest. Trade between stars is very expensive, even for a fairly sophisticated civilization (think of the opportunity costs of waiting decades for a package from interstellar Amazon to arrive!). It's usually much cheaper to make things from local materials and swap data packets with your stellar neighbors. The problem, of course, is that eventually you might well exhaust the resources of your local solar system. A sufficiently long-lived civilization will do so, no matter how sustainable they are, unless they manage some kind of trick to conquer entropy or basic conservation laws. Which means you'll need a worked-out interstellar legal framework for laying claim to uninhabited solar systems as destinations for colonies when the time comes to "move house". And all of this is presuming you're operating at a high enough level of technology and civilization to even gain entry to the Interstellar Club in the first place.
- Tloewald 13y agoTo quote an Applied Math professor from college (Thomas K. Donaldson): "When we reach the stars, we won't need planets." The kind of competition and resource exhaustion you're talking about is on a scale where interstellar conquest is kind of a moot point.
- eli_gottlieb 13y agoI disagree. Even stars run down, and there's also the issue of drifting debris clouds and various other "Natural Disasters IN SPAAAACE!". Though, yes, admittedly, a star-faring civilization might be developed enough that "moving house" becomes an applicable metaphor: if your old star runs down, just move to a new one that's unoccupied, and since life is rare there will be plenty of those. Hmmmm... Now I'm imagining a huge set of future Highly Developed Civilizations conducting some kind of scientific conference to share their progress on the matter of the Last Question, since they all realize the bind they're in and would rather work on the problem scientifically now to get increased or unlimited resource sustainability rather than pillage the universe and end up fighting wars with relativistic weaponry in a few billion years.
- inetsee 13y agoThere's a post by Robin Hanson ("http://hanson.gmu.edu/econofsf.html" http://hanson.gmu.edu/econofsf.html") that discusses this issue with more references on the topic (including the Krugman article).
- gjm11 13y agoThe opening of Krugman's paper is wonderful (though it has nothing to do with interstellar trade): "Many critics of conventional economics have argued, with considerable justification, that the assumptions underlying neoclassical theory bear little resemblance to the world we know. These critics have, however, been too quick to assert that this shows that mainstream economics can never be of any use. Recent progress in the technology of space travel, as well as the prospects of the use of space for energy production and colonization (O’Neill 1976) make this assertion doubtful; for they raise the distinct possibility that we may eventually discover or construct a world to which orthodox economic theory applies."
- krugmanlol 13y agoLol