3 ms·

> There just aren’t that many people — yet? — using Kindle Fires, Galaxy Tabs, Nexuses, or Surfaces as alternatives to the iPad. Thus the massive discrepancies

by Touche 13y ago

> There just aren’t that many people — yet? — using Kindle Fires, Galaxy Tabs, Nexuses, or Surfaces as alternatives to the iPad. Thus the massive discrepancies between the iPad’s market share and usage share numbers. 2 years ago you wrote[1]: > The iPad’s role in the tablet market much more closely resembles the iPod’s role in the digital music player market a decade ago than it does the iPhone’s role in the 2008 phone market. Need any help moving that goalpost? [1]http://daringfireball.net/2011/07/ipad_dominance http://daringfireball.net/2011/07/ipad_dominance

Philadelphia 13y ago
How is that moving the goalpost? He's describing the current situation in both cases, not making predictions.
- vhumina 13y ago
  > He's describing the current situation in both cases, not making predictions.. He made a prediction: You don’t have to look hard to find many other observers with the same belief — that Android will succeed in the tablet market similarly to how it has succeeded in the phone market. Why the certainty, though? It’s certainly possible, I agree. A 20-1 unit sale lead over all Android tablets combined seems preposterous. But I don’t think it’s certain. It reminds me of the certainty that many observers had, circa 2002-2005, that the iPod could not maintain a 70 percent share of the music player market. The fundamental difference I see between smartphones and tablets is that mobile phones were an existing and long-standing market prior to the iPhone. Apple’s stated goal in 2007 was to get 1 percent of the total mobile phone market by the end of 2008. Most people today still buy phones the same way they did in 2006: they go to their local mobile carrier store and buy whatever the sales staff there convinces them to buy. Over 100 million times, that’s been an Android phone. I see no sign, though, that phone carriers are having any more success selling tablets than they ever were selling anything other than phones. Remember carrier-subsidized netbooks? I’m not trying to cherry-pick data. I’m simply observing, based on Apple’s sales data and Google’s activation data, that the tablet market doesn’t today look anything like the smartphone market ever did. The iPad didn’t enter the tablet market. It created the tablet market. The iPad’s role in the tablet market much more closely resembles the iPod’s role in the digital music player market a decade ago than it does the iPhone’s role in the 2008 phone market. Or as Marco Arment wrote almost seven months ago, there still really is no “tablet” market — just an iPad market.
interpol_p 13y ago
> Need any help moving that goalpost? Is it really moving the goalposts when things have changed in two years? In 2011 the iPad absolutely dominated the tablet market. It was the tablet market. Not the case today, reporting both of those things is not moving the goalposts.
- vhumina 13y ago
  > reporting both of those things is not moving the goalposts. He made a prediction: You don’t have to look hard to find many other observers with the same belief — that Android will succeed in the tablet market similarly to how it has succeeded in the phone market. Why the certainty, though? It’s certainly possible, I agree. A 20-1 unit sale lead over all Android tablets combined seems preposterous. But I don’t think it’s certain. It reminds me of the certainty that many observers had, circa 2002-2005, that the iPod could not maintain a 70 percent share of the music player market. The fundamental difference I see between smartphones and tablets is that mobile phones were an existing and long-standing market prior to the iPhone. Apple’s stated goal in 2007 was to get 1 percent of the total mobile phone market by the end of 2008. Most people today still buy phones the same way they did in 2006: they go to their local mobile carrier store and buy whatever the sales staff there convinces them to buy. Over 100 million times, that’s been an Android phone. I see no sign, though, that phone carriers are having any more success selling tablets than they ever were selling anything other than phones. Remember carrier-subsidized netbooks? I’m not trying to cherry-pick data. I’m simply observing, based on Apple’s sales data and Google’s activation data, that the tablet market doesn’t today look anything like the smartphone market ever did. The iPad didn’t enter the tablet market. It created the tablet market. The iPad’s role in the tablet market much more closely resembles the iPod’s role in the digital music player market a decade ago than it does the iPhone’s role in the 2008 phone market. Or as Marco Arment wrote almost seven months ago, there still really is no “tablet” market — just an iPad market.
  - ghshephard 13y ago
    "It’s certainly possible, I agree." - seems pretty reasonable assessment to me. Also - iPod was a music player. It's competitors were...Music Players. If Apple had only released the Touch, they would have been wiped out by competitors on the music player front - but they stepped up and released the Nano/Shuffle. It is interesting that Apple doesn't seem to have any interest in releasing any lower end tablets (akin to the Nano/Shuffle) to compete in the TV/WebConsumption market. Their decision not to enter that market has left themselves pretty vulnerable to disruption from below. The real measure will be if people are actually those tablets in the market that Apple is competing in. We won't know for a couple years - my guess is that Apple is going to regret leaving that opening up for competitors - Tablets can migrate upwards a lot more effectively than underpowered netbooks could impact the Laptop market...

by Touche 13y ago

Philadelphia 13y ago

How is that moving the goalpost? He's describing the current situation in both cases, not making predictions.

vhumina 13y ago
> He's describing the current situation in both cases, not making predictions.. He made a prediction: You don’t have to look hard to find many other observers with the same belief — that Android will succeed in the tablet market similarly to how it has succeeded in the phone market. Why the certainty, though? It’s certainly possible, I agree. A 20-1 unit sale lead over all Android tablets combined seems preposterous. But I don’t think it’s certain. It reminds me of the certainty that many observers had, circa 2002-2005, that the iPod could not maintain a 70 percent share of the music player market. The fundamental difference I see between smartphones and tablets is that mobile phones were an existing and long-standing market prior to the iPhone. Apple’s stated goal in 2007 was to get 1 percent of the total mobile phone market by the end of 2008. Most people today still buy phones the same way they did in 2006: they go to their local mobile carrier store and buy whatever the sales staff there convinces them to buy. Over 100 million times, that’s been an Android phone. I see no sign, though, that phone carriers are having any more success selling tablets than they ever were selling anything other than phones. Remember carrier-subsidized netbooks? I’m not trying to cherry-pick data. I’m simply observing, based on Apple’s sales data and Google’s activation data, that the tablet market doesn’t today look anything like the smartphone market ever did. The iPad didn’t enter the tablet market. It created the tablet market. The iPad’s role in the tablet market much more closely resembles the iPod’s role in the digital music player market a decade ago than it does the iPhone’s role in the 2008 phone market. Or as Marco Arment wrote almost seven months ago, there still really is no “tablet” market — just an iPad market.

interpol_p 13y ago

> Need any help moving that goalpost? Is it really moving the goalposts when things have changed in two years? In 2011 the iPad absolutely dominated the tablet market. It was the tablet market. Not the case today, reporting both of those things is not moving the goalposts.

vhumina 13y ago
> reporting both of those things is not moving the goalposts. He made a prediction: You don’t have to look hard to find many other observers with the same belief — that Android will succeed in the tablet market similarly to how it has succeeded in the phone market. Why the certainty, though? It’s certainly possible, I agree. A 20-1 unit sale lead over all Android tablets combined seems preposterous. But I don’t think it’s certain. It reminds me of the certainty that many observers had, circa 2002-2005, that the iPod could not maintain a 70 percent share of the music player market. The fundamental difference I see between smartphones and tablets is that mobile phones were an existing and long-standing market prior to the iPhone. Apple’s stated goal in 2007 was to get 1 percent of the total mobile phone market by the end of 2008. Most people today still buy phones the same way they did in 2006: they go to their local mobile carrier store and buy whatever the sales staff there convinces them to buy. Over 100 million times, that’s been an Android phone. I see no sign, though, that phone carriers are having any more success selling tablets than they ever were selling anything other than phones. Remember carrier-subsidized netbooks? I’m not trying to cherry-pick data. I’m simply observing, based on Apple’s sales data and Google’s activation data, that the tablet market doesn’t today look anything like the smartphone market ever did. The iPad didn’t enter the tablet market. It created the tablet market. The iPad’s role in the tablet market much more closely resembles the iPod’s role in the digital music player market a decade ago than it does the iPhone’s role in the 2008 phone market. Or as Marco Arment wrote almost seven months ago, there still really is no “tablet” market — just an iPad market.
- ghshephard 13y ago
  "It’s certainly possible, I agree." - seems pretty reasonable assessment to me. Also - iPod was a music player. It's competitors were...Music Players. If Apple had only released the Touch, they would have been wiped out by competitors on the music player front - but they stepped up and released the Nano/Shuffle. It is interesting that Apple doesn't seem to have any interest in releasing any lower end tablets (akin to the Nano/Shuffle) to compete in the TV/WebConsumption market. Their decision not to enter that market has left themselves pretty vulnerable to disruption from below. The real measure will be if people are actually those tablets in the market that Apple is competing in. We won't know for a couple years - my guess is that Apple is going to regret leaving that opening up for competitors - Tablets can migrate upwards a lot more effectively than underpowered netbooks could impact the Laptop market...