> First because the probablity distribution itself would have to be pulled out of thin air, and make the results questionable. All aspects of financial forecas

> First because the probablity distribution itself would have to be pulled out of thin air, and make the results questionable. All aspects of financial forecasting in the initial stages are pulled out of thin air and are hence questionable. This is one of the big uncertainties one lives with when starting a business. > Third (and main) because you don't particularly need the actual outcomes at all, Bingo. That's the key. What you are looking for is not "will my business succeed" but rather "what do I have to do in order to succeed?" The tweaking of the model is the point, not the outcomes.