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IANA(M/S/EE), but is this applicable? I thought Benford's Law applied to fabricated numbers, e.g. in expense reports. But wouldn't it be too obvious to just inv

IANA(M/S/EE), but is this applicable? I thought Benford's Law applied to fabricated numbers, e.g. in expense reports. But wouldn't it be too obvious to just invent vote counts like that? If the vote counts are not fabricated, but results of a manipulated process (i.e. miscounting votes), wouldn't that mean that Benford's law still applies?

jgrahamc 17y ago
There's a professor at Ann Arbor who knows more about this than me :-) He's done work in this area and claims that Benford's Law's distribution for the second digit of vote counts can be significant. My little analysis appears to say "this data matches Benford's Law in the first and second digits" http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/ http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/ While searching for him I see that he's written a paper very similar to my little experiment about the Iranian election: http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/note17jun2009.pdf http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/note17jun2009.pdf
- DanielBMarkham 17y ago
  It's a seven page PDF which reaches no conclusions. Is it me, or couldn't he just say "Looked at this using Benford's Law. Can't say one way or the other."?
  - wglb 17y ago
    In other words, make it so that the conclusion can be tweeted.
  - scott_s 17y ago
    You place no value on someone explaining their methods?
    - DanielBMarkham 17y ago
      I wasn't looking for a lecture, only an answer. An "Executive Summary" at the beginning would have saved time for many readers, I believe.
idiopathic 17y ago
Exactly, I thought the allegations were not that they made up the numbers but that they swapped around one candidate's votes for another. Very cool law though, it will come in useful in the future.
yummyfajitas 17y ago
Benford's law applies to probability distributions which are (roughly) uniform on a logarithmic scale, and which span over several orders of magnitude. If a manipulated process generated such a distribution then it would satisfy Benford's law. However, it isn't clear to me apriori why election returns should satisfy Benford's law, so I'm unsure why this test is meaningful to begin with.

jgrahamc 17y ago

There's a professor at Ann Arbor who knows more about this than me :-) He's done work in this area and claims that Benford's Law's distribution for the second digit of vote counts can be significant. My little analysis appears to say "this data matches Benford's Law in the first and second digits" http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/ http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/ While searching for him I see that he's written a paper very similar to my little experiment about the Iranian election: http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/note17jun2009.pdf http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/note17jun2009.pdf

DanielBMarkham 17y ago
It's a seven page PDF which reaches no conclusions. Is it me, or couldn't he just say "Looked at this using Benford's Law. Can't say one way or the other."?
- wglb 17y ago
  In other words, make it so that the conclusion can be tweeted.
- scott_s 17y ago
  You place no value on someone explaining their methods?
  - DanielBMarkham 17y ago
    I wasn't looking for a lecture, only an answer. An "Executive Summary" at the beginning would have saved time for many readers, I believe.

idiopathic 17y ago

Exactly, I thought the allegations were not that they made up the numbers but that they swapped around one candidate's votes for another. Very cool law though, it will come in useful in the future.

yummyfajitas 17y ago

Benford's law applies to probability distributions which are (roughly) uniform on a logarithmic scale, and which span over several orders of magnitude. If a manipulated process generated such a distribution then it would satisfy Benford's law. However, it isn't clear to me apriori why election returns should satisfy Benford's law, so I'm unsure why this test is meaningful to begin with.