4 ms·

>a time period when US population increased 9.7%: That's a misleading and mostly irrelevant statistic because population growth in the USA is not homogenous. H

by rm999 13y ago

>a time period when US population increased 9.7%: That's a misleading and mostly irrelevant statistic because population growth in the USA is not homogenous. Half the growth from 2000-2010 has been hispanic, a population that tends to live in western and southern states - not the northeast/NYC. This is reflected in geographic maps of population growth: http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/united-states-population-growth-from-2000-to-2010.html http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/united-states-population-growth-.... 10% growth hasn't occured anywhere near NYC; the 2-3% population growth in NYC reflects the geographic area it is in. Anyway, I don't see why national population growth is relevant either way, the important statistic is supply has outpaced demand, which is a hard fact (and is visibly clear - construction is common in many parts of the city, especially the outer boroughs and the east/west sides of Manhattan). Prices are going up because the demographic of the city has changed, not because of supply constraints.

akgerber 13y ago
I think the cause-and-effect is backwards there. The prosperous parts of the geographical area NYC is in have very high housing prices and very little new housing construction, so it would be very hard for the population to grow without even more people piling into the existing housing units. Given the abundance of housing elsewhere in the country, people aren't willing to make that compromise, and leave. The Northeast thus leads the country in domestic outmigration: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323482504578230082916437000 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732348250... I don't have data on it at hand, but I'm willing to bet the high cost of living (mostly driven by very high housing prices) is the number one driver of outmigration. The expensive housing is a worthwhile to high-wage workers, but cheaper housing elsewhere makes a huge difference in quality-of-living for people working at low wages.
- rm999 13y ago
  > The prosperous parts of the geographical area NYC is in have very high housing prices and very little new housing construction I suspect you are arguing based on incorrect intuition here, this simply isn't true. Some of the neighborhoods with the most construction in the last 15 years include the financial district, Manhattan's west side (Chelsea all the way up to the the UES), and the brooklyn/queens waterfront. Where I live, in the East Village, many new luxury buildings are going up. http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/08/18/reshaping-new-york/ http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/08/18/reshaping-new... In the next several years, midtown east - some of the most expensive real estate in the country - is going to be transformed with millions of more square feet of office space in a huge rezoning plan: http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/east_midtown/index.shtml http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/east_midtown/index.shtml A little bit north of there, in one of the most expensive residential neighborhoods in the country, there is a residential boom going on - soon, 4 of the tallest buildings in NYC will be around 60th st: http://gizmodo.com/four-of-americas-tallest-buildings-are-being-built-on-1327172554 http://gizmodo.com/four-of-americas-tallest-buildings-are-be... >I'm willing to bet the high cost of living (mostly driven by very high housing prices) is the number one driver of outmigration Doesn't this contradict your original point that everyone wants to move to NYC? Anyway, I agree, but this isn't relevant because it's regulated by supply/demand - this is as close to economic fact as you can get. As I showed in a previous comment, supply growth has outpaced demand growth for decades now. Housing prices are going up in NYC because wealthier people are displacing poorer people as jobs move here and the city gets safer/nicer, not because there is a housing shortage.

by rm999 13y ago

akgerber 13y ago

I think the cause-and-effect is backwards there. The prosperous parts of the geographical area NYC is in have very high housing prices and very little new housing construction, so it would be very hard for the population to grow without even more people piling into the existing housing units. Given the abundance of housing elsewhere in the country, people aren't willing to make that compromise, and leave. The Northeast thus leads the country in domestic outmigration: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323482504578230082916437000 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732348250... I don't have data on it at hand, but I'm willing to bet the high cost of living (mostly driven by very high housing prices) is the number one driver of outmigration. The expensive housing is a worthwhile to high-wage workers, but cheaper housing elsewhere makes a huge difference in quality-of-living for people working at low wages.

rm999 13y ago
> The prosperous parts of the geographical area NYC is in have very high housing prices and very little new housing construction I suspect you are arguing based on incorrect intuition here, this simply isn't true. Some of the neighborhoods with the most construction in the last 15 years include the financial district, Manhattan's west side (Chelsea all the way up to the the UES), and the brooklyn/queens waterfront. Where I live, in the East Village, many new luxury buildings are going up. http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/08/18/reshaping-new-york/ http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/08/18/reshaping-new... In the next several years, midtown east - some of the most expensive real estate in the country - is going to be transformed with millions of more square feet of office space in a huge rezoning plan: http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/east_midtown/index.shtml http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/east_midtown/index.shtml A little bit north of there, in one of the most expensive residential neighborhoods in the country, there is a residential boom going on - soon, 4 of the tallest buildings in NYC will be around 60th st: http://gizmodo.com/four-of-americas-tallest-buildings-are-being-built-on-1327172554 http://gizmodo.com/four-of-americas-tallest-buildings-are-be... >I'm willing to bet the high cost of living (mostly driven by very high housing prices) is the number one driver of outmigration Doesn't this contradict your original point that everyone wants to move to NYC? Anyway, I agree, but this isn't relevant because it's regulated by supply/demand - this is as close to economic fact as you can get. As I showed in a previous comment, supply growth has outpaced demand growth for decades now. Housing prices are going up in NYC because wealthier people are displacing poorer people as jobs move here and the city gets safer/nicer, not because there is a housing shortage.