3 ms·

I think you're definitely on to something here. If you look at housing starts in the US over the past year, they're way up, but they're also predominantly mult

by aliston 13y ago

I think you're definitely on to something here. If you look at housing starts in the US over the past year, they're way up, but they're also predominantly multi-family. This generation has delayed forming families, but at some point probably will ultimately settle down, get married, have kids... the 1 BR in SOMA isn't going to cut it at that point and there will be a flight back to the suburbs.

lsc 13y ago
>This generation has delayed forming families, but at some point probably will ultimately settle down, get married, have kids Statistically speaking, wealthy people tend to have fewer children, and have those children later in life. I believe this was true for the previous generation, too. >the 1 BR in SOMA isn't going to cut it at that point and there will be a flight back to the suburbs. Yeah, but a 2 BR would work just fine, especially if you only have one kid. And 3 BR apartments are not unheard of. (and the cultural changes required to expect kids to share a bedroom are not impossible.) I think that the deciding factor here is perceived safety, followed by quality of schools. As cities are gentrifying, people seem to be thinking of them as safer. And a wealthy population (especially a wealthy population that recently moved in, and here in California, is therefore paying full freight property taxes) makes for a bunch of money to throw at those problems. If cities start being perceived as safer than suburbia? That could push parents out of suburbia and into cities. That's how they got to suburbia in the first place, right? And it's a self-reinforcing cycle; gentrification means more taxes, more resources for law-enforcement, (and conversely, less of those things in the suburbs, if the wealthy folks in the suburbs are moving into the cities.)
lkrubner 13y ago
In the USA, the Baby Boom peaked in 1958 and was then followed by 19 years of decline in the birth rate, hitting bottom in 1977. Its the trough of the late 70s and early 80s who are now in their 30s and having kids -- they can not drive a flight back to the suburbs exactly because they are from a trough: there are not many of them, relative to the demographics before them and after them.
dagw 13y ago
Based on me and my circle of fiends who've settled down, gotten married and had kids that's not happening. We're not trading our 1 BR in town for a house in suburbs, but a 2-3 BR just down the road (or in my case, the same building) as our old apartment.

by aliston 13y ago

lsc 13y ago

>This generation has delayed forming families, but at some point probably will ultimately settle down, get married, have kids Statistically speaking, wealthy people tend to have fewer children, and have those children later in life. I believe this was true for the previous generation, too. >the 1 BR in SOMA isn't going to cut it at that point and there will be a flight back to the suburbs. Yeah, but a 2 BR would work just fine, especially if you only have one kid. And 3 BR apartments are not unheard of. (and the cultural changes required to expect kids to share a bedroom are not impossible.) I think that the deciding factor here is perceived safety, followed by quality of schools. As cities are gentrifying, people seem to be thinking of them as safer. And a wealthy population (especially a wealthy population that recently moved in, and here in California, is therefore paying full freight property taxes) makes for a bunch of money to throw at those problems. If cities start being perceived as safer than suburbia? That could push parents out of suburbia and into cities. That's how they got to suburbia in the first place, right? And it's a self-reinforcing cycle; gentrification means more taxes, more resources for law-enforcement, (and conversely, less of those things in the suburbs, if the wealthy folks in the suburbs are moving into the cities.)

lkrubner 13y ago

In the USA, the Baby Boom peaked in 1958 and was then followed by 19 years of decline in the birth rate, hitting bottom in 1977. Its the trough of the late 70s and early 80s who are now in their 30s and having kids -- they can not drive a flight back to the suburbs exactly because they are from a trough: there are not many of them, relative to the demographics before them and after them.

dagw 13y ago

Based on me and my circle of fiends who've settled down, gotten married and had kids that's not happening. We're not trading our 1 BR in town for a house in suburbs, but a 2-3 BR just down the road (or in my case, the same building) as our old apartment.