3 ms·
I was hoping someone would correct me on that. So 84-65 = 19 years, and 2/19 = 10.5% predicted population churn in two years. 14% is 3.5%/10.5%, or 33% higher t
by WiseWeasel 13y ago
I was hoping someone would correct me on that. So 84-65 = 19 years, and 2/19 = 10.5% predicted population churn in two years. 14% is 3.5%/10.5%, or 33% higher than the demographic factor alone would predict.
- whyenot 13y agoYour calculations assume nobody lives past the age of 84. You may want to rethink that.
- WiseWeasel 13y agoIt assumes that the average person aged 65 will live to 84, meaning as many will die before as after.
- whyenot 13y agoNo. It is a prediction that someone who is 65 will live on average another 19 years to age 84. It does not assume "as many will die before as after." The wikipedia article on life expectancy is actually quite good, if you are interested in learning more.
- nitrogen 13y agoIf the definition of average used by life expectancy is the median, then yes, by definition as many will die before as die after.
- emiliobumachar 13y agoI hope nobody is actually redefining the word "average" to mean median, because that would confuse all I thought I knew about statistics. Is there a less allegedly ambiguous term for the "traditional" definition of average, that is, the sum of many measurements of the same characteristic, divided by the number of elements measured?
- robmil 13y agoMean, surely?
- emiliobumachar 13y agoVery true. Thank you.
- nitrogen 13y agoAverage can refer to any of the common measures of central tendency, as Wikipedia calls them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average#Harmonic_mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average#Harmonic_mean Average intelligence, for example, refers to median intelligence (equivalent to an IQ of 100). Mean intelligence, however, is likely the same as median intelligence due to its normal distribution.
- veidr 13y agoI'm way too stoned to follow this conversation...