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I personally think critical mass has been reached, and unless someone actually cracks the protocol (which I seriously doubt) and brings down the txn network, BT

I personally think critical mass has been reached, and unless someone actually cracks the protocol (which I seriously doubt) and brings down the txn network, BTC is here to stay. Quibbling about the current valuation misses the point. The secure transfer mechanism is the real value, and is not getting shoved back in the bag. Bet long on BTC and I doubt very highly you'll regret it, even if you get in at 200US and lose over the next few months.

TylerE 13y ago
That's what the btc crowd has said every time it bubbles How about you guys go 12 months without losing 25%+ of value in a single day before you start talking about being "here to stay".
- simplemath 13y ago
  Again if you're looking at BTC as e-gold you're missing the point. The value is the txn network and that isn't going away. Price volatility is irrelevant to the long term value of it as a transaction vector of last resort for a huge number of applications.
  - betterunix 13y ago
    I would not have so much confidence in a system that, in your own words, is a last resort.
    - simplemath 13y ago
      Last resort on a global scale is still a gigantic market.
- Fuzzwah 13y ago
  I'd say it is here to stay: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgTzm1g10zm2g25 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgTzm1g10zm2g...
  - TylerE 13y ago
    That looks very similar to this one: http://www.ecotao.com/holism/add/enron/Enron_whole.jpg http://www.ecotao.com/holism/add/enron/Enron_whole.jpg If you look at it up to about end-of-year 2000.
    - meowface 13y ago
      The difference though is that Enron insiders were engaging in immoral and illegal activities. Bitcoin on the other hand is provably not a scam; it is an existing and backed commodity. Market manipulation as an insider is impossible, as there are no insiders; manipulation is only possible by attacking infrastructure or accumulating enough BTC. Future bubbles and crashes are likely, but I predict it's going to continue to bounce back pretty much forever. Only if many major governments began to criminalize it, or if some new somehow "better" cryptocurrency came out, would it be in risk of complete deflation.
      - TylerE 13y ago
        Really? What happens when the founders who mined hundreds of thousands of coins in the early days cash out?
        etherael 13y ago
        Because the people who were prescient enough to figure out that there was immense unrealised demand for such a system are surely anxious to offload their now increasingly valuable stake in that system, right? I sure am, back when I was mining and buying at around the 1$ mark I thought to myself; self, you know this is all just games and popcorn, but there'll always be a bigger sucker out there and some day they'll come along and buy all this stuff you're now building, so suck it up and tolerate the jet engine whine of the fans, you'll be rich in the long run. Not really, though.
        Phlarp 13y ago
        Go look at the top 250 addresses, a _majority_ of them have never been spent from. There isn't any conclusive proof that the #1 address (111,111 BTC) belongs to DPR, but it is clearly linked to SR in one way or another. I'd be willing to bet a solid amount of my own holdings that those coins are effectively "dead" (private key lost) along with a good portion of the rest of the addresses that haven't been touched since 2011, or have flat out never been spent from. Everyone is touting the 12 million number for total coins in circulation right now and 21 million as the maximum amount. In practice both of those numbers are going to be significantly lower.
- ferdo 13y ago
  Bitcoins bought with US dollars last year buy over 40x more than if the dollars had been saved. Bitcoin is here to stay for as long as the internet is.
  - notahacker 13y ago
    If I had a Bitcoin for every dotcom company that saw a >40x YoY increase in market cap that hasn't stayed around as long as the internet...
    - Phlarp 13y ago
      And yet I doubt any of these saw 40x YoY increases topping out at a $2.5 billion valuation.
      - TylerE 13y ago
        Webvan got to something like $1.5b Broadcast.com sold to Yahoo for $5.7b
        gwern 13y ago
        > Broadcast.com sold to Yahoo for $5.7b Smells like success, not failure.
        TylerE 13y ago
        Not really. Basically everything that was Broadcast.com was shutdown within 8 years. So they basically paid $5b+ to run a service that lost money every year for a few years until they finally just quietly dissolved it. I mean, the broadcast.com guys made out like bandits, the buyers, not so much.
        shadowOfShadow 13y ago
        That's what he's saying. This is the new con and the cons are going to make out like bandits.
- mrb 13y ago
  The significant rise of the value of Bitcoin despite its volatility, for the last 4 years, has proven that the market doesn't care that much about volatility. Bitcoin is being adopted and growing regardless.

TylerE 13y ago

That's what the btc crowd has said every time it bubbles How about you guys go 12 months without losing 25%+ of value in a single day before you start talking about being "here to stay".

simplemath 13y ago
Again if you're looking at BTC as e-gold you're missing the point. The value is the txn network and that isn't going away. Price volatility is irrelevant to the long term value of it as a transaction vector of last resort for a huge number of applications.
- betterunix 13y ago
  I would not have so much confidence in a system that, in your own words, is a last resort.
  - simplemath 13y ago
    Last resort on a global scale is still a gigantic market.
Fuzzwah 13y ago
I'd say it is here to stay: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgTzm1g10zm2g25 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgTzm1g10zm2g...
- TylerE 13y ago
  That looks very similar to this one: http://www.ecotao.com/holism/add/enron/Enron_whole.jpg http://www.ecotao.com/holism/add/enron/Enron_whole.jpg If you look at it up to about end-of-year 2000.
  - meowface 13y ago
    The difference though is that Enron insiders were engaging in immoral and illegal activities. Bitcoin on the other hand is provably not a scam; it is an existing and backed commodity. Market manipulation as an insider is impossible, as there are no insiders; manipulation is only possible by attacking infrastructure or accumulating enough BTC. Future bubbles and crashes are likely, but I predict it's going to continue to bounce back pretty much forever. Only if many major governments began to criminalize it, or if some new somehow "better" cryptocurrency came out, would it be in risk of complete deflation.
    - TylerE 13y ago
      Really? What happens when the founders who mined hundreds of thousands of coins in the early days cash out?
      - etherael 13y ago
        Because the people who were prescient enough to figure out that there was immense unrealised demand for such a system are surely anxious to offload their now increasingly valuable stake in that system, right? I sure am, back when I was mining and buying at around the 1$ mark I thought to myself; self, you know this is all just games and popcorn, but there'll always be a bigger sucker out there and some day they'll come along and buy all this stuff you're now building, so suck it up and tolerate the jet engine whine of the fans, you'll be rich in the long run. Not really, though.
      - Phlarp 13y ago
        Go look at the top 250 addresses, a _majority_ of them have never been spent from. There isn't any conclusive proof that the #1 address (111,111 BTC) belongs to DPR, but it is clearly linked to SR in one way or another. I'd be willing to bet a solid amount of my own holdings that those coins are effectively "dead" (private key lost) along with a good portion of the rest of the addresses that haven't been touched since 2011, or have flat out never been spent from. Everyone is touting the 12 million number for total coins in circulation right now and 21 million as the maximum amount. In practice both of those numbers are going to be significantly lower.
ferdo 13y ago
Bitcoins bought with US dollars last year buy over 40x more than if the dollars had been saved. Bitcoin is here to stay for as long as the internet is.
- notahacker 13y ago
  If I had a Bitcoin for every dotcom company that saw a >40x YoY increase in market cap that hasn't stayed around as long as the internet...
  - Phlarp 13y ago
    And yet I doubt any of these saw 40x YoY increases topping out at a $2.5 billion valuation.
    - TylerE 13y ago
      Webvan got to something like $1.5b Broadcast.com sold to Yahoo for $5.7b
      - gwern 13y ago
        > Broadcast.com sold to Yahoo for $5.7b Smells like success, not failure.
        TylerE 13y ago
        Not really. Basically everything that was Broadcast.com was shutdown within 8 years. So they basically paid $5b+ to run a service that lost money every year for a few years until they finally just quietly dissolved it. I mean, the broadcast.com guys made out like bandits, the buyers, not so much.
        shadowOfShadow 13y ago
        That's what he's saying. This is the new con and the cons are going to make out like bandits.
mrb 13y ago
The significant rise of the value of Bitcoin despite its volatility, for the last 4 years, has proven that the market doesn't care that much about volatility. Bitcoin is being adopted and growing regardless.