4 ms·

Tomorrow Market is a social prediction market. Hacker News members get to skip the email verification. Let me know what you think.

• TallGuyShort 17y ago
  >> We strongly believe that predicting should be a social activity. Can you explain more about what the purpose is? I can see why predicting certain things can be important, but after reviewing the "tour" and the issues being discussed, it seems like a game of chance to me. What are the benefits to being involved in a community like this?
  • khafra 17y ago
    Prediction markets* aren't games of chance; they're an economist's tool, an alternative to polls, or an embarassment to prognosticators. Not that they're perfect+. Even less perfect when I can't find a list or search-box to select among the "symbols" to sell and purchase. Also, the "social" part is difficult when I can't find a place to "discuss" on each contract. *http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_Market http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_Market +http://www.slate.com/id/2189135/pagenum/all http://www.slate.com/id/2189135/pagenum/all
    • zc 17y ago
      All of the symbols are listed on the sidebar. Good idea about contract discussions. That's in the pipeline.
  • DTrejo 17y ago
    A related question: Is the social aspect of this market the difference between it and competitors like http://ppx.popsci.com/ http://ppx.popsci.com/ ?
    • zc 17y ago
      Yes.
  • zc 17y ago
    In my mind, there are two main purposes: 1. You can make your prediction public and gain social status for being the most clairvoyant or the best trader, and 2. When the markets stabilize, the prices will give an indication of the likelihood of certain events. The game of making predictions involves chance and skill, and I think there is enough skill to make this game more interesting than Yahtzee.
  • radu_floricica 17y ago
    For the community it's a game (with either real or fake money), but the predictions tend to be surprisingly accurate, given a few conditions are met. It can also be used by large organisations in the decision making process (which is how I presume this could be funded), but I haven't heard of this actually happening in the wild. More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds edit, better link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
• synnik 17y ago
  Just curious -- how exactly do you know that any given signup is a HN member?
  • TallGuyShort 17y ago
    The variable 'special' is set through the URL - my guess is that's it.