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Socially liberal young people are an even worse fit with the rich and white or white, old, and socially conservative Republican coalition than they are with the

Socially liberal young people are an even worse fit with the rich and white or white, old, and socially conservative Republican coalition than they are with the Democrat's immigrant, urban, and public sector coalition. The phenomenon described in the article is one of the interests of the elderly being in direct opposition to those of the young, and the GOP has only further entrenched itself in favour of the former and against the latter. The only large demographic shift I can see happening in American politics is if the GOP sheds its anti-immigrant elements and embraces a browner base than it currently enjoys. Immigrants tend to be more entrepreneurial, more distrustful of government, and more socially conservative than the average American, and so it would be a good fit if the GOP can shake the veiled racism expressed by many of its louder members.

philwelch 13y ago
Even the Republicans are a shaky coalition of big business, religious nuts, and quasi-libertarians, along with the racists (though the generation that swung with the Southern Strategy is aging, and most of the segregationists are out of Congress now, thankfully).
AnthonyMouse 13y ago
What I find interesting is that people who are, essentially, libertarian-leaning are consistently found attempting to make the Republicans more socially liberal and almost never found attempting to make the Democrats more fiscally responsible. The Republican demographic skews older than the Democrats. I would have thought the younger demographic would be more inclined to support sensible reforms of social security, like converting it to a basic income for everyone eligible to vote.
- redthrowaway 13y ago
  It's not young Democrats blocking social security reform, it's old Republicans. When Republicans talk entitlement reform, they mean reform of welfare and medicaid, not social security and medicare. Or, if they do intend to reform the latter, it's not for current or near-future beneficiaries: it's for young people. The Republican platform is heavily tilted towards their core demographics: the old, white, and rich. Until that changes, their demographics will remain as they are.
  - twoodfin 13y ago
    I'm not sure how you arrived at this perspective. Certainly as a matter of political expediency in the last presidential election, the Republican ticket had to emphasize again and again that their Medicare reforms would have no effect on benefits for current and near-seniors. But that's an allergic reaction to what happened the last time a Republican tried to reform old-age entitlements. That was all of 10 years ago, when George W. Bush came out of the re-election gate with a plan to allow young people to redirect a portion of their Social Security taxation into personal accounts. It was, of course, demogogued into oblivion by the then-"Party of No".
    - redthrowaway 13y ago
      Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're asking, I think you answered your own question. Social Security is not unsustainable because of young people, it's unsustainable because of the glut of baby boomers who are coming into retirement age. Offering to let young people choose their own retirement plans doesn't absolve them of the need to pay for those of their parents. It's the worst of both worlds: the old still enjoy their unpaid-for benefits, while the young are forced to pay for them and denied the "get more than you put in" scheme their parents enjoy. Making noises about helping the young is meaningless when you turn around and pass Medicare Part D, another entitlement enjoyed by the old and paid for by the young. Oh and, while we're at it, let's slash tax rates for the rich, because they really haven't gotten a fair shake in America. The combination of Bush' tax cuts and entitlements simply burdened the young even more direly than they already had been. The Ryan budget that Romney was forced to adopt was worse still: the apotheosis of "more subsidies for the old and rich and fuck the young and poor". As I said, until the GOP abandons their crusade against the young and poor (who are essentially synonymous), they will continue to be the party of the old and rich. The reason Democrats enjoy such overwhelming popularity with the young is not because the young are married to Democratic policies, but because the alternative is even less palatable.
      - twoodfin 13y ago
        I don't understand your logic. The Democrats were for a more expansive Part D, not a cheaper one. Do you think they're more enthusiastic about reforming Social Security to make it a better deal for the young? They're certainly not for reducing cost-of-living increases through adoption of something like chained CPI. The most common Democratic policy prescription I've heard for Social Security is lifting the payroll tax cap, which certainly doesn't hurt current seniors or Boomers about to retire, but rather young people who have some peak earnings years in their future over the current cap. As to "privatization"-style reform, I think the theory was that the sorts of instruments available would have better long term yields than Treasuries (I'm actually rather skeptical of this). Higher yields would mean less future budgetary obligation, and you have to start somewhere, no? At the same time, the government could skim some of that excess off the top and use it to replace some of the redirected SS revenue. Yes, you would certainly also have to take money out of general revenue for a generation or two to cover the transition and/or any market swings, but money from general revenue is provided by our still (post-Bush tax cuts) highly progressive income tax, rather than a regressive payroll tax.
rayiner 13y ago
You can't assume the existing alignments will stay in place. I'm thinking of what happens in say Chicago when the current generation of 20-somethings are politically-powerful 30-40-somethings. Homosexuality will be normalized by then, and the most virulent racists in the Republican party will have died off. That will leave the Democratic party a class of educated, urban younger people and a class of older public sector folks. Now, Chicago might have to find an extra $1 billion in its budget starting next year to bring its pension funding up to required levels. What happens when these younger urban folks see their taxes go up just as they start to earn some money, school services cut just as they have kids, etc, all to pay for these retired public sector employees? That coalition is going to fracture, catastrophically.

philwelch 13y ago

Even the Republicans are a shaky coalition of big business, religious nuts, and quasi-libertarians, along with the racists (though the generation that swung with the Southern Strategy is aging, and most of the segregationists are out of Congress now, thankfully).

AnthonyMouse 13y ago

What I find interesting is that people who are, essentially, libertarian-leaning are consistently found attempting to make the Republicans more socially liberal and almost never found attempting to make the Democrats more fiscally responsible. The Republican demographic skews older than the Democrats. I would have thought the younger demographic would be more inclined to support sensible reforms of social security, like converting it to a basic income for everyone eligible to vote.

redthrowaway 13y ago
It's not young Democrats blocking social security reform, it's old Republicans. When Republicans talk entitlement reform, they mean reform of welfare and medicaid, not social security and medicare. Or, if they do intend to reform the latter, it's not for current or near-future beneficiaries: it's for young people. The Republican platform is heavily tilted towards their core demographics: the old, white, and rich. Until that changes, their demographics will remain as they are.
- twoodfin 13y ago
  I'm not sure how you arrived at this perspective. Certainly as a matter of political expediency in the last presidential election, the Republican ticket had to emphasize again and again that their Medicare reforms would have no effect on benefits for current and near-seniors. But that's an allergic reaction to what happened the last time a Republican tried to reform old-age entitlements. That was all of 10 years ago, when George W. Bush came out of the re-election gate with a plan to allow young people to redirect a portion of their Social Security taxation into personal accounts. It was, of course, demogogued into oblivion by the then-"Party of No".
  - redthrowaway 13y ago
    Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're asking, I think you answered your own question. Social Security is not unsustainable because of young people, it's unsustainable because of the glut of baby boomers who are coming into retirement age. Offering to let young people choose their own retirement plans doesn't absolve them of the need to pay for those of their parents. It's the worst of both worlds: the old still enjoy their unpaid-for benefits, while the young are forced to pay for them and denied the "get more than you put in" scheme their parents enjoy. Making noises about helping the young is meaningless when you turn around and pass Medicare Part D, another entitlement enjoyed by the old and paid for by the young. Oh and, while we're at it, let's slash tax rates for the rich, because they really haven't gotten a fair shake in America. The combination of Bush' tax cuts and entitlements simply burdened the young even more direly than they already had been. The Ryan budget that Romney was forced to adopt was worse still: the apotheosis of "more subsidies for the old and rich and fuck the young and poor". As I said, until the GOP abandons their crusade against the young and poor (who are essentially synonymous), they will continue to be the party of the old and rich. The reason Democrats enjoy such overwhelming popularity with the young is not because the young are married to Democratic policies, but because the alternative is even less palatable.
    - twoodfin 13y ago
      I don't understand your logic. The Democrats were for a more expansive Part D, not a cheaper one. Do you think they're more enthusiastic about reforming Social Security to make it a better deal for the young? They're certainly not for reducing cost-of-living increases through adoption of something like chained CPI. The most common Democratic policy prescription I've heard for Social Security is lifting the payroll tax cap, which certainly doesn't hurt current seniors or Boomers about to retire, but rather young people who have some peak earnings years in their future over the current cap. As to "privatization"-style reform, I think the theory was that the sorts of instruments available would have better long term yields than Treasuries (I'm actually rather skeptical of this). Higher yields would mean less future budgetary obligation, and you have to start somewhere, no? At the same time, the government could skim some of that excess off the top and use it to replace some of the redirected SS revenue. Yes, you would certainly also have to take money out of general revenue for a generation or two to cover the transition and/or any market swings, but money from general revenue is provided by our still (post-Bush tax cuts) highly progressive income tax, rather than a regressive payroll tax.

rayiner 13y ago

You can't assume the existing alignments will stay in place. I'm thinking of what happens in say Chicago when the current generation of 20-somethings are politically-powerful 30-40-somethings. Homosexuality will be normalized by then, and the most virulent racists in the Republican party will have died off. That will leave the Democratic party a class of educated, urban younger people and a class of older public sector folks. Now, Chicago might have to find an extra $1 billion in its budget starting next year to bring its pension funding up to required levels. What happens when these younger urban folks see their taxes go up just as they start to earn some money, school services cut just as they have kids, etc, all to pay for these retired public sector employees? That coalition is going to fracture, catastrophically.